When you draft a player in the first five or six rounds of your fantasy draft, you have certain expectations for him. You are probably hoping that he has an MVP-caliber season and will escort your fantasy team to the league championship, which will ideally provide you with a nice payday as well as earn you the adulation of your league mates and provide you with bragging rights during the offseason. Wouldn’t that be nice? Well even if these lofty goals are not met by your first several selections in the draft, you need these players to at least have solid seasons in order to keep your team competitive. Unfortunately, things do not always work out this way. Inevitably, many team owners are hit with a major bust or two from the early rounds of their draft. Depending upon the magnitude of the bust as well as the general preparedness of the team owner to deal with said bust, a season can be virtually derailed.
If you selected Cedric Benson in round two of your league's draft last season, believing him likely to run for 1,200 yards and 10 TDs, and if you did not devise a strong backup plan, then you likely had trouble keeping your head above water in 2007. Or maybe you drafted Lee Evans in the fifth round last year, expecting him to serve as a solid WR2 for your squad. If that was your story from 2007, your team may have struggled to get solid WR production throughout the season. Both of these players were clearly busts, stinging many team owners. Sadly, there are many of such stories from 2007. Identifying busts after the fact is a fairly simple task. The real question at hand for any given bust from the prior year is, “Can he bounce back?”
When examining the likelihood of a bust bouncing back, the first step is to consider what the causes for the poor season may have been. Was it an injury that slowed him down? Did any of his key teammates sustain injuries that negatively impacted his production? Was there a change in the offensive scheme or coaching staff last year? There has to be some sort of reasonable explanation and it very likely is a combination of several things. The first step is simply to identify what factors may have caused or contributed to this player’s disappointing season.
After determining why a player ended up being a bust last year, the next item to give thought to is what, if anything has changed to improve this player’s outlook for the new season. Or sadly, maybe the picture has gotten uglier for the player in question. Regardless, this assessment must be made before moving forward. Maybe an upgraded offensive line, a new QB or a greatly improved offseason conditioning program has this player primed to have a great 2008.
Along the lines of identifying what has changed for the bust, determining the relative significance of that change is important as well. For a QB, a small upgrade in talent at RG likely will not yield the statistical benefit that hiring a new, pass-happy offensive coordinator would. Obviously some change is more important than other change, and most certainly, not all change is good change. Once you determine the net impact of the change for the bust in question (or possibly lack thereof), you can then come to a reasonable conclusion regarding the likelihood of him actually bouncing back.
With all of this in mind, below you will find analysis of a few busts from 2007 that I believe are primed for strong bounce back seasons in 2008. Hopefully this analysis will not only stimulate thought regarding the players detailed below, but other busts from last year as well. Using this simple line of thought to analyze other busts could be beneficial for you as you prepare for your league’s draft.
Of note, I did not consider players that produced well below expectations primarily due to significant injury issues to be busts for purposes of this analysis. So guys like Larry Johnson and Marvin Harrison would not qualify.
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