FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT KIT

While Gostkowski’s game improved in his second NFL season—his field goal accuracy climbed from 77 to 87 percent—it was the coattails of a record-setting offense that propelled him into the upper echelon of fantasy kickers. Imagine how gaudy his numbers would have been had the Pats not converted 70 percent of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns, leaving Gostkowski counting by ones instead of threes. Then again, an NFL-record 74 PATs more than makes up for the fact that 24 NFL kickers made more field goals. It’s not as if the Patriots’ offense will take a giant step backwards in 2008, and even if it does that just means fewer singles—and more treys—for Gostkowski. If you can’t wait until the last round to take your kicker, Gosty is the guy in your crosshairs.

Last summer Folk was a little-known rookie from Arizona hoping to push Martin Gramatica for the Dallas gig. Turns out Tiny Dancer’s hamstring injury, which landed him on injured reserve and handed the job to Folk, was the best thing that could have happened to the Cowboys. Folk had the distinct pleasure of tacking on PATs for the NFC’s most prolific offense, and when they left him with field goal attempts he converted them at an impressive 83 percent clip. With Romo & Co. back for more and augmented by rookie Felix Jones, turning your fantasy kicking chores over to Nick should give you squad’s Folk tale a happy ending.

Nate’s first kick of 2007 was blocked, and he didn’t make his second field goal until Week Four. After that, though, he was money—including a finishing fantasy playoffs kick (pardon the pun) in which he averaged almost 11 points per game weeks 14 through 17. All the elements remain in place for Kaeding to rank amongst the elite fantasy kickers again this season: a top-notch offense with just enough of an issue in the red zone (the Bolts converted a shade under 56 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns) to provide Nate with copious ones and threes; accuracy that’s allowed him to convert nearly 90 percent of his field goal attempts the past three seasons; and a big leg that’s knocked through 78 percent of his plus-40 tries since entering the league. There’s absolutely nothing here preventing Kaeding from being among the first kickers off the fantasy draft board.

The greatest clutch kicker of our generation proved to be entirely mortal in 2007. He memorably shanked a potential game-winning chippy against the Chargers and saw his field goal accuracy rate dip below 80 percent for the first time since 2003. My Cousin Vinny didn’t even make a kick from beyond 39 yards during the entire regular season; fortunately for Adam only one team took more drives into the red zone than Indy, so he was bequeathed with plenty of opportunities. As the Colts’ offense transitions from point- producing juggernaut to a more efficient and economical machine comfortable with 27 points instead of 35, Vinatieri won’t need to stretch his leg to maintain residence amongst the top tier of fantasy kickers. That’s a downer in distance leagues, and Vinny is certainly not worth reaching early for, but his steady dose of six-, seven-, and eight-point games won’t hurt you.

Any questions about the Packs’ decision to turn kicking chores over to a rookie were answered immediately as Crosby opened his career with a 53-yarder and a 42-yard game winner in his first NFL game. That was just as appetizer, as the Colorado rookie capped his first season by leading the league in scoring. Problem is, the vast majority of Green Bay’s scoring drives were directed by the now-retired Brett Favre; the move to Aaron Rodgers likely precipitates a decline in scoring attempts of both the one- and three-point variety. And then, of course, there is the albatross around Crosby’s neck: not since John Smith went back-to-back for the Patriots in 1981-82 has a scoring leader repeated.

The quad injury Scobee suffered in Week One cost him half the season, but Jacksonville’s offense was humming along when he returned and he crammed 26 PATs into the final seven games. Unfortunately he kicked multiple field goals in just two of those seven games and didn’t even try a trey over the final fortnight —leaving you in quite a pickle if Scobee was kicking for your squad in the fantasy title game. A David Garrard-led offense too efficient? Who knew? Josh’s health is fine, his accuracy continues to improve, and the Jags added receivers in the offense in hopes of making their offense even more potent. It all points to Scobee bouncing back to post solid numbers and provide a reliable option for your fantasy squad.

While the Bengals’ offense regressed a bit in 2007, it was actually to the benefit of Graham. The most telling stat: only three teams had more red zone possessions than Cincy, and only three teams converted those trips into points more regularly than the Bengals’ 91 percent efficiency rate… but the Bengals’ touchdown percentage of 48.2 ranked 23rd in the league. That meant career highs for Graham in field goal tries and field goals made, and when you factor in his career-high 91 percent accuracy rate it wasn’t tough to offset a second straight decline in extra point attempts. There’s still enough offensive firepower in Cincy to keep Graham’s numbers among the elite, but six of the Bengals’ final seven games will be played outside in Ohio and Pennsylvania, so weather could be a concern.

Surprised to learn that Dawson finished among the NFL’s top 10 scorers last year, ahead of the likes of Adam Vinatieri and Nate Kaeding? The key, as you might imagine, was a resurgent Browns offense that yielded 43 extra point attempts—roughly 42 percent more than Philly Dawg has averaged during his tenure in Cleveland. If you’re convinced the Browns have turned the corner with Derek Anderson at the helm, then Dawson will be more valuable to you than he’s ranked here. A downtick in PATs and a regression closer to Phil’s career 83 percent accuracy rate may take Dawson out of the top 10 scorers, though he’d still find himself on the fringe of fantasy relevant kickers.

Which Akers is to be believed—the fantasy stud who averaged better than 120 points per year from 2001 through 2004, or the injury-prone hack who hasn’t topped 108 points in a season since? In addition to his own quad and hamstring issues, Akers’ numbers have been impacted by Donovan McNabb’s maladies and the subsequent suffering of the Philly offense. Was Akers’ horrendous two-of- 10 performance from 40 yards and out last season due to injuries or has he jumped the shark? Will a healthy McNabb lead to more multiple field goal games (20 NFL kickers had more than David’s six MFGGs) or just spike his PAT totals? Akers is no longer a fantasy kicker to be reached for, but you could certainly do worse than having him fall into your lap in the final round.

Rackers booted almost as many PATs last season as the previous two years combined; on the flip side, his 21 field goals were a 25 percent drop from 2006 and slightly more than half of his gaudy 2005 total. You don’t have to be smarter than a fifth grader to figure out that counting by ones does not add up as quickly as counting by threes, which is why Rackers has fallen from the first kicker off most draft boards to a borderline fantasy starter. The Cardinals’ offense kept its most important parts intact, so Rackers will once again be seeing more PAT opportunities than field goal tries. With an accuracy rate that’s been under 76 percent four of the past five years (and six of Neil’s eight pro seasons), it’s tough to bank on a significant bounceback for Rackers. Sure, you may miss the occasional seven-field goal game, but… when is he going to make it back to Mexico?