FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT KIT

(+Upside) Early on, Kelly was considered by many scouts as a first rounder and perhaps second to only Devin Thomas. At 6’4” and 219 pounds, Kelly has the size and hands of a prototypical NFL wideout. He was the fastest receiver in Oklahoma history to a 1000 yard season but his numbers fell off later in his final college season. He did not work out at the combine and instead was available at the OU Pro Day. That was the start of his problems as he showed up overweight at 227 pounds and only ran a 4.6/40 on Astroturf which should be a faster track than real grass or FieldTurf. He also complained about OU afterwards. It all left a bad feeling for scouts.

Another problem is that Kelly hails from OU which does not have a good record on producing NFL caliber wide receivers. But the Redskins were interested in him long before the draft or the Pro Day and there was some speculation that they would take him with their 1.21 pick in the draft. As it ended up, the Skins traded back and ended up with both Kelly and Devin Thomas. The duo has the potential to give the Skins passing attack a sorely-needed make-over if only in a year or two.

Kelly has some medical issues with a knee injury while in college and his speed is now coming into question but he has the size and hands and has demonstrated the ability to perform at a high level, if only a bit inconsistently. He’s a training camp watch since the flanker spot is open competition this year and Randle El will move to the slot if either Kelly or Thomas (or both) take the job. He has more questions than Thomas but can answer them all in August.

Davis was the first pick of the Chargers last year and the rookie had a standard inconsistent first season with only 20 catches for 188 yards and one touchdown. The addition of Chris Chambers makes any ascension of Davis even more unlikely and he’ll spend 2008 battling with Eric Parker and Legedu Naanee for the #3 spot on the depth chart. As last season showed, a Norv Turner offense doesn’t much use a slot receiver so Davis carries no fantasy value this year and is even limited for dynasty teams since he has to develop well and hope Chris Chambers leaves before he would get a shot at any appreciable playing time. All combined, the Chargers wideouts only had eight touchdowns last year and the only one by anyone besides Chambers or Jackson was the lone score by Davis. Let him stay undrafted.

Davis renewed his career in 2007 when he had a career best season while playing on his fifth NFL team. He was re-signed to a four-year, $16 million contract in the offseason that has $8 million guaranteed. Thanks to subbing for the injured Andre Johnson, Davis caught 33 passes for 583 yards and three scores. He averaged a lofty 17.7 yards per catch and was a nice waiver wire pickup since he had almost all those stats in the seven games that Johnson was out. Davis will play the slot this year but won’t match his totals from 2007 unless Johnson or Walter cannot play.

The diminutive Parish is only 5’9” and 171 pounds and serves as a decent slot receiver that the Bills rarely use anyway. Last season he only had 35 catches for 352 yards and most slot receivers do far better than a ten yard per catch average. That reflects the shorter nature of the passing in Buffalo as well which is not slated to change with the new offense. Parrish may score the odd touchdown, but he has no place on your fantasy roster.

Jarrett comes off a bitterly disappointing rookie season of just six catches for 73 yards. He only played in three games and while he has not been written off as a huge bust, the Panthers have made provisions just in case he is. The ex-USC star may be 6’4”, but just has not shown the maturity and work ethic needed to break into the lineup. When he was arrested for DUI in the offseason, the Panthers signed D.J. Hackett the following day. Jarrett is hands off in any redraft league this summer and hasn’t shown enough to warrant interest in even dynasty leagues.

Furrey had his big season in 2006 when the Lions ran seriously short of receivers and the fact the entire defensive secondary was shadowing Roy Williams allowed him to catch 98 passes for 1086 yards and score six touchdowns. Not bad for an ex-XFL player who was converted to defensive back in St. Louis. But the addition of Shaun McDonald and Calvin Johnson last year left Furrey as the #4 option. Luckily in Mike Martz system, that still accounted for 61 catches for 664 yards and one score. With the new offense being installed this year, the Lions will not use a slot receiver very often let alone a #4 wideout. Expect Furrey to take another big step backwards this year if in fact he doesn’t disappear.

The Jaguars first pick in 2005 still hasn’t broken into the starting lineup and after three seasons, the team is souring on the ex-quarterback. Jones only caught a career low 24 passes in 2008 for 317 yards and a paltry 13.2 YPC despite supposedly possessing freakish speed and athletic ability. He scored four or five times in each season but has never offered the consistency that a fantasy team (or the Jags) need. Jones only had catches in four of the first ten games but then had minor play the rest of the year and then ended with a freakish eight catches for 138 yards and a score against the Texans in the final game of the year.

Jones will compete for playing time but short of a dramatic and unexpected turnaround, he’s not worth drafting.

Avant was the most productive non-starter from the Philly wideouts last year but still only managed 23 catches for 267 yards and two scores. Greg Lewis and Hank Baskett still figure in but none of the group has reliable fantasy value. If one of the starters are injured, Avant is the most likely to see increased playing time.

No analysis available.

Smith was taken with the 4.07 pick of the draft this year and to his credit, he is the first wideout drafted by the new coaching staff. At 6’2”, he fits into the tall mold that OC Cam Cameron prefers for wide receivers but he is considered a raw prospect who will have to learn more about route running before he will be able to contribute. In the new offense that won’t focus as much on a wide receiver, Smith isn’t even worth a consideration in a dynasty league barring unexpected success in training camp.

The Chiefs acquired Franklin with their 7th pick in the NFL draft (4.06) and the Missouri product has good size at 6'1" and 214 pounds. He was a standout in minicamp wearing shorts and a T-shirt but he'll need to show up more when the pads go on during training camp. While he does have future upside, 2008 isn't shaping up to be a big passing year in Kansas City anyway and realistically Franklin would be doing well enough to take the #3 role. Questions at quarterback already overshadow the other receivers for the Chiefs and Franklin will carry little value in redraft leagues this year.

Stokley had the second best season of his nine year career when he switched to the Broncos in 2007 and caught 40 passes for 635 yards and five scores. He was a constant factor in every game though only had five efforts that netted more than 50 yards and only once had a 100 yard game. The Broncos tried using Stokley as a split end but he’s always been miscast as anything more than a slot receiver. He is also 32 years old and while he has not lost any speed yet, he’s not a building block for the franchise. The good news is that while Javon Walker is gone, the Broncos has added three veteran wideouts during the offseason and drafted Eddie Royal with their second round pick. There will be plenty of competition for the split end spot this year and Stokley should maintain most of the work from the slot where he is most dangerous. That means less catches this year but should allow him to occasionally turn in a nice game. If Brandon Marshall’s arm causes him to miss any time at the first of the season, it would likely press Stokley into more use since he already knows the system.

The Buccaneers selected Jackson with their 2.27 pick in the NFL draft this year but the Appalachian State product likely won’t see much playing time in 2008. At only 5’10” and 180 pounds, he’s undersized for flanker and will end up as depth behind Joey Galloway. Jackson was one of the fastest runners at the NFL combine when he turned in a 4.33/40 but his level of competition in the Southern Conference was hardly NFL quality. His shining moment in college was when he caught three passes for 92 yards and two scores in the upset win over Michigan State to open the 2007 season. He is a dynamic punt and kick returner and should see work this year on special teams. He’s too raw to expect him to step into a slot receiver role and contribute much this year though. He has minor fantasy value on a dynasty team in case he develops but that could take a year or two or more.

Davis signed a three-year, $3.9 million contract with the Bears and he can earn $2 million more with escalators based on performance. But at only 5’9” and 180 pounds, he will never be much more than a slot receiver and special teams player. He only has 39 catches and two scores in his three year career and won’t do nearly enough here to warrant fantasy consideration.

Camarillo returns for his third season but he only had eight catches for 160 yards and two scores last year. On the newly built offense he will be challenged to find a role if he even makes it to the final roster. On a Parcells team, there could be surprise rookies or free agents that push him out anyway.

(-Risk) Jones looked like he was starting to step up when he caught 27 passes for 384 yards and four scores in 2006 and last year he started out the season with a 73 yard game in week three but then needed arthroscopic knee surgery and was out until week ten. Two games later and he suffered a groin injury that eventually landed him on injured reserve. With Justin Gage improving and Justin McCareins on the team, Jones will have to win back his starting spot. For a player who has never had more than 27 catches in any of his three seasons, that will prove too much.

After four seasons with the Ravens where he had a career total of 20 catches and three scores, Darling now goes to the Chiefs with a three-year contract. A speedster who could never lock up the slot role in Baltimore now will compete and likely lose the #2 spot to Jeff Webb. It is a new offense and coaching staff so Webb has nothing vested in him but Darling has never shown the ability to be a starter. He did practice in minicamps across from Dwayne Bowe but it’s unlikely he will hold on to the job. Even if he does, it will not offer much fantasy value anyway.

The Packers selected Nelson with their 2.05 pick and made him just the third wideout drafted in April. The Kansas State product is 6’3” and considered to be already a polished receiver who uses his size and aggressiveness to his advantage against smaller defensive backs. He is reasonably fast with his 4.5/40 time at the combine though most scouts were surprised he ran that fast. Nelson doesn’t make a good draft pick for this year with Donald Driver and Greg Jennings firmly in place but has dynasty value thanks to the need to replace the 33-year old Driver. That may take a couple of years but Nelson has a good chance to show up in a few games this year and make at least a little noise. One to watch but not one to draft for 2008.

The Rams went with a youth movement in their wideout corps by releasing Isaac Bruce and drafting both Donnie Avery and Burton. Burton is a polished receiver from Kentucky who fell in the draft because of constant injury problems in college. He’ll be in the mix challenging for the #3 spot but is a better bet to remain little more than depth this year if not every year.

Higgins was drafted with the 3.35 pick by the Raiders in 2007 but he rarely saw the field and only had six catches for 47 yards. He gets a chance to compete for the slot role with Drew Carter and likely won’t win it. Plus the slot in the offense installed last year doesn’t account for much action yet.

Hall never played during his rookie year thanks to a separated shoulder but the 5.32 draft pick from 2006 is still in the good graces of the coaching staff. Hall should show up this year on special teams and could get a little action during the season. At 6’3” and 240 pounds, he could definitely find a place on this team in the future.

Moss was given the slot role last year but he did not do much with it. He recorded 21 catches for 225 yards but only had 10.7 yards per catch for a player that is supposedly all about downfield speed. He also never scored. As always, he was injured last year as well and can never stay healthy. The rookie Steve Smith was much more impressive than Moss last year and should push Sinorice down to #4 on the depth chart if not lower. Moss just cannot stay healthy and has yet to display both speed and actually catching a ball.

The Giants drafted Manningham with their 3.32 pick but the deep threat from Michigan had fallen from his junior season when it was expected that he would become a first round talent. Further dropping his stock was running a 4.6/40 at the NFL combine though he later turned in a 4.38 during his Pro Day. He has some character issues and also scored only a six on the Wonderlic test which doesn’t bode well when he is holding a very thick playbook. Expect him to rise no higher than #4 on the depth charts this year and have no fantasy value.

Bryant was out of football in 2007 after a disappointing season in San Francisco. He’s been productive in the past such has the 1009 yards he gained in 2005 with the Browns but he is a headcase and a lockerroom problem. HC Jon Gruden is giving him another chance and he signed for player minimum but he could end up either as a starting flanker or cut before the season starts. Big risk here and the rewards come infrequently with him. Someone else will draft him in your league but the Bucs have a lethargic passing attack and Bryant isn’t worth a roster spot at least until training camp shows a dramatic turnaround.

Jones had good reviews out of training camp and seemed to challenge for the #2 spot last year but only ended with 15 catches and the ascension of Andre Davis last year means Jones remains no better than the #4 wideout this year. Don’t make the same mistake this season.

Lloyd was the only other free agent acquisition during the offseason and while Marty Booker will replace Muhsin Muhammad, it is a stretch to expect Lloyd to become the next Bernard Berrian. Lloyd only signed for veteran minimum and is no lock to even make it past training camp. He was a flop in Washington and even the motley crew of wideouts in Chicago look pretty good compared to him.

The Vikings signed Ferguson to a one-year contract worth just under $1 million. He’s just depth on a team that rarely throws.

Wright enters his third season but has only caught six passes in his career. He is expected to be the #4 for the Jets and therefore doesn’t have any fantasy value this year.

Henry was a standout last year for Kansas and at 6’3” he could become a nice possession receiver in the NFL at some point. But he only ran a 4.55/40 at the NFL combine and doesn’t have true #1 speed. With great hands and the ability to catch the ball in traffic, he could develop into a #3 wideout in a couple of years but has almost no fantasy value for this year.

Jurevicius underwent knee surgery and then caught developed a staph infection which eventually cleared up. But Jurevicius is slated to play the slot this year because he straight out told the Browns he could no longer take the pounding of being an everydown receiver. He’ll be 34 at the end of the season and is just playing out his ten year career. He has never had more than 706 yards in a season (2001) and while he had a freakish ten scores in Seattle in 2005, he’s been locked at three touchdowns in each of the last two years in Cleveland and stuck around 500 or 600 yards in each. His career is winding down and even he realizes it.

Jurevicius won’t post any better numbers than he did last year and almost certainly less. His fantasy value actually ended back in 2005. The acquisition of Donte Stallworth was to replace Jurevicius.

07-21-20 Update: Since Jurevicius is expected to open the season on the PUP list because of his knee, he drops deeply and is not worth drafting.

Martin played the #4 role in the Packers offense last year and while he only had16 catches for 242 yards, he did score four times. Problem for this year is that Brett Favre is gone and Aaron Rodgers will be challenged to make four reads before throwing on most downs and his four scores could decrease as well thanks to Jordy Nelson who has the same height advantage that Martin has but more speed and more talent.