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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2008 ~
Season Ticket
Bye Week
* updated

Prediction: KC 7, NYJ 30

Update: Laveranues Coles did not participate in practice on Wednesday and Thursday to rest his concussion and thigh injuries but had a full day on Friday and is expected to start. He is listed as probable for the first time in many weeks. Jerricho Cotchery may be a different deal though as he has limited practices all week because of his shoulder injury. He is expected to be a gametime decision and could be replaced by Chansi Stuckey or Brad Smith. I am lowering Cotchery's numbers and be aware he is a game time decision.

The Jets won 13-10 with the Chiefs visited in week 17 last year. They are back again and looking even worse. The Jets are still licking their wounds from losing in overtime in Oakland. The visiting Chiefs are just the thing to make them feel better.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @NE 10-17 +16.5 45
2 OAK 8-23 -4 34.5
3 @ATL 14-38 +5 36
4 DEN 33-19 +9.5 46.5
5 @CAR 0-34 +9.5 38.5
6 BYE - - -
7 TEN 10-34 +8 35.5
8 @NYJ - +13 38
9 TB - - -
10 @SD - - -
11 NO - - -
12 BUF - - -
13 @OAK - - -
14 @DEN - - -
15 SD - - -
16 MIA - - -
17 @CIN - - -
KC @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Tyler Thigpen     170,1
RB Kolby Smith 30    
RB Jamaal Charles 30 20  
TE Tony Gonzalez   60,1  
WR Mark Bradley   20  
WR Devard Darling   10  
WR Dwayne Bowe   50  
PK Connor Barth 1 XP    
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs continue their gentle wafting to the bottom of the pool. Changes are being made now by desperate coaches wanting to look like they are trying to find the key to winning that somehow has eluded them or that they just overlooked until now. Nick Novak is being replaced by Connor Barth after missing two field goals last week. Had he made them the Chiefs would have only lost by 28 points. Larry Johnson appears likely to be suspended by the league and this franchise just gets worse. Rumors are that when you knock on Herman Edwards' office door you hear him say "I'm not here".

Quarterback: Brodie Croyle has been lost for the season and Damon Huard injured his hand last week when he hit a helmet during a pass and had swelling around his thumb. Either Huard manages to play or the Chiefs will once again rely on Tyler Thigpen. This entire offense has only produced four passing scores this season and no quarterback has turned in more than 160 passing yards. In three games played by Thigpen, he has never passed for more than 128 yards in the game. Unless Huard plays, both Tony Gonzalez and Dwayne Bowe take a major hit.

Croyle passed for 195 yards and one score against the Jets in New York last year.

Running Backs: Making it all worse is Larry Johnson who is being investigated by the police for his fourth assault accusation and it appears very likely that Johnson will be suspended. Until the situation is sorted out, I will assume that Johnson does not play again this week. Last week that meant that Jamaal Charles rushed for 17 yards on three carries and Kolby Smith gained 20 yards on ten runs. Not pretty.

Larry Johnson was injured in the meeting last year with the Jets and Jackie Battle was the starter with only 44 yards on 13 carries.

Wide Receivers: Dwayne Bowe has somehow managed to catch two touchdowns this year but if Thigpen is going to play, Bowe gets the short end of the stick. Thigpen only started and played one full game this year in week three when he faced the Falcons and Bowe ended with his worst game of the year with only 43 yards on four catches. But he did score once. And without a rushing game, the Chiefs have no choice but to throw.

Bowe only had one catch for 13 yards against the Jets last year. Jeff Web scored once and led the wideouts with four catches for 49 yards.

Tight Ends: Tony Gonzalez comes of his best game of the year when he had 97 yards on six catches against the Titans but like Bowe he only has two scores on the season. Gonzo also has topped 50 yards only twice this year.

Gonzalez had seven receptions for 64 yards in New York last year.

Match Against the Defense: The Jets rushing defense has been average this year and a bit better at home but the Chiefs without Johnson are no concern. Forget Charles or Smith this week.

The Jets are weak against the pass though and with what should be ample trash time, there is a chance that even Thigpen could produce enough to make Bowe and Gonzalez have fantasy relevancy this week. If there is a score, it has to end up with Gonzalez this week. The Jets are weakest against tight ends.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 26 29 29 13 32 29
Preventing Fantasy Points    NYJ 24 17 16 26 15 28

New York Jets (3-2)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @MIA 20-14 -3 36
2 NE 10-19 -1.5 39
3 @SD 29-48 +9 44
4 ARZ 56-35 -3 45
5 BYE - - -
6 CIN 26-14 -6 45
7 @OAK 13-16 -3 42.5
8 KC - -13 38
9 @BUF - - -
10 STL - - -
11 @NE - - -
12 @TEN - - -
13 DEN - - -
14 @SF - - -
15 BUF - - -
16 @SEA - - -
17 MIA - - -
NYJ vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre     190,1
RB Thomas Jones 120,2 10  
TE Dustin Keller   20  
WR Laveranues Coles   70,1  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   30  
WR Chansi Stuckey   30  
PK Jay Feely 3 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The loss to the Raiders was troubling not only because it dropped the Jets to two games behind the Bills in the AFC East. It underscored a total lack of offense after two feel good "and roll up the score" home games against the Cardinals and Bengals. Playing at home against the Chiefs will make it all look okay again but road trips to BUF, NE and TEN in the next four weeks could be major challenges. Facing the Chiefs is the NFL equivalent to an extra bye week though and the Jets are not above running up a score.

Quarterback: Brett Favre had his first scoreless game as a Jet when he only passed for 197 yards in Oakland. That may seem to be a major aberration but in reality wasn't that different than what Favre had done against other decent defenses this year. He just had three scores in San Diego and then six touchdowns against the Cards to perk up his stats. Otherwise he only has passed for four touchdowns over his other four games this year. And Favre is tossing two interceptions in most games.

Kellen Clemens was the starter in week 17 when the Jets visited and only passed for 115 yards and one score.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones owners were finally rewarded when he had three scores in week six and last Sunday Jones had his biggest game as a Jet - 24 carries for 159 yards in Oakland. Even Leon Washington had a touchdown last week but only three carries. This team remains behind Jones as the primary back with minimal relief and the last two weeks has seen good results.

Jones rushed for 98 yards against the Chiefs last year and added a 15-yard touchdown catch. Even Leon Washington had a nice day with 67 yards on just 11 rushes.

Wide Receivers: After a solid showing in every game this year, Jerricho Cotchery comes off a horrible showing when he had seven passes thrown to him in Oakland but only caught one for no gain. He's been turning in around 70 yards in most games. Laveranues Coles only had 51 yards on four receptions in Oakland but he too has been solid until last week.

Coles did not play against the Chiefs last year but Cotchery turned in 76 yards on 18 carries.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller only had one catch and no score last week but Chris Baker had his best game of the year when he caught five passes for 42 yards. But Keller is the preferred endzone target so far and the only Jets tight end worth owning.

Match Against the Defense: This should be the best game yet for Thomas Jones against the worst - dead last - rushing defense in the league. They have already allowed 13 touchdowns to running backs this year and five games over 100 yards. Expect 100+ and at least one score from Jones if not two.

Favre may use the opportunity to pad his own stats though most teams only score once in the air because it is just so easy to run the ball and there should be a lot of time to kill in this game with Larry Johnson likely out. Expect one passing score here and moderate yardage. It could be much more, but it doesn't have to be.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 8 24 2 15 25 5
Preventing Fantasy Points    KC 5 32 7 5 28 23

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