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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2008 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Bye Week

Prediction: NYJ 13, BUF 24

The loss last week left the Bills tied with the Patriots and the Jets are only one game back in the AFC East. But the Bills are 3-0 at home and the Jets are only 1-2 on the road. The Bills swept the Jets last year, winning 17-14 in week four and later 13-3 in New York during week eight.

New York Jets (4-3)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @MIA 20-14 -3 36
2 NE 10-19 -1.5 39
3 @SD 29-48 +9 44
4 ARZ 56-35 -3 45
5 BYE - - -
6 CIN 26-14 -6 45
7 @OAK 13-16 -3 42.5
8 KC 28-24 -13 38
9 @BUF - +5.5 43
10 STL - - -
11 @NE - - -
12 @TEN - - -
13 DEN - - -
14 @SF - - -
15 BUF - - -
16 @SEA - - -
17 MIA - - -
NYJ @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre     240,1
RB Thomas Jones 60 10  
RB Leon Washington 20 20  
TE Dustin Keller   20  
WR Laveranues Coles   80,1  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   70  
WR Chansi Stuckey   30  
PK Jay Feely 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: Since week two, the Jets have won every home game (ARZ and CIN) and lost both the road games (SD and OAK). The passing game remains improved but the rushing attack still struggles to be average and the defense looks great against weak teams and then bad against the better offenses. That's a bad trend compared to the rest of the schedule that only provides the Rams in week ten as a very likely win. A win here would be huge for the Jets but so far nothing they have done says they are up to the task.

Quarterback: Brett Favre has been a draw for the fans so his acquisition has already been a success but the difference he is making for the team is debatable. The Jets head out for their fourth road game and the Bills are likely the best defense that they have yet faced. Favre does already have 15 touchdowns on the season but six came in one game and just as importantly he is currently tied with J. T. O'Sullivan for the NFL lead with 11 interceptions. Favre will overtake him this week since O'Sullivan has been demoted because of his turnover problem and Favre is averaging two per game lately.

Pennington passed for 291 yards and one score in Buffalo last year.

Running Backs: Despite having a dream match-up of the visiting Chiefs, Thomas Jones only rushed for 54 yards on 14 carries and scored once to salvage his fantasy value. He hits the road for only the fourth time this season and yet his two games over 100 rushing yards this year were both on the road. The last three weeks have seen Jones worthy of a fantasy start but this week in Buffalo will be a very big challenge.

Leon Washington comes off one of his most productive games in years when he only had three carries but gained 67 yards and one score plus he had three receptions for 34 yards and another touchdown. Six touches do not usually equate to 101 yards and two scores. He had nine touches against the Bengals and only produced 29 total yards. I am not including Washington in the projections because last week has just been a freak game compared to the other six weeks.

The Jets only rushed for a total of 59 yards on 16 carries in Buffalo last season though Leon Washington had one touchdown.

Wide Receivers: Jerricho Cotchery finally managed to get a 100 yard game last week but he had just one catch for no yards the previous week on the road in Oakland. Laveranues Coles is always listed as questionable to play, always misses or is limited in practice and then always gets 50 or more yards each week. Neither Coles nor Cotchery play differently at home or on the road though a big chunk of their overall numbers this year came in the Cardinals game when Favre threw six scored and the pair of wideouts combined for five of them.

Cotchery burned the Bills for eight catches for 107 yards last year while Coles had 65 yards on eight receptions but scored once.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller has only marginal fantasy value at best but for a rookie has already made a splash in New York. Last week he had four catches for 38 yards but only caught one pass in each of the four previous games.

Match Against the Defense: The Bills have been one of those defenses that have allowed six rushing touchdowns to running backs in away games and not one in a home game. In fact no opposing runner has gained more than 55 yards in Buffalo so far this year and Thomas Jones is hardly tearing up the carpet in other places. Expect the old Jones with no score and minimal yardage along with Leon Washington turning back into Leon Washington this week.

Favre faces a secondary that has always allowed a passing score to visitors though never more than two touchdowns and not more than 208 passing yards - both marks set by Philip Rivers. Expect Favre to throw for at least one score here that favors the faster Coles.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 8 18 2 15 26 5
Preventing Fantasy Points    BUF 12 15 20 8 18 18

Buffalo Bills (5-2)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 SEA 34-10 -1 39
2 @JAX 20-16 +6 38
3 OAK 24-23 -9.5 36.5
4 @STL 31-14 -8 41.5
5 @ARZ 17-41 +1 45
6 BYE - - -
7 SD 23-14 +1 46.5
8 @MIA 16-23 -1.5 42.5
9 NYJ - -5.5 43
10 @NE - - -
11 CLE - - -
12 @KC - - -
13 SF - - -
14 MIA - - -
15 @NYJ - - -
16 @DEN - - -
17 NE - - -
BUF vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Edwards     190,2
RB Marshawn Lynch 70,1 20  
TE Robert Royal   30,1  
WR Lee Evans   80,1  
WR James Hardy   30  
WR Roscoe Parrish   20  
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The loss in Miami was a surprise but the Bills come home still tied for the AFC East lead and with an excellent chance to end up with the division title if they can get past the Patriots in week 10 and 17. The offense has been only average at best but the defense has been much better than expected. The Bills have to win this week to get another divisional win and resist the temptation to look ahead to playing the Pats the next week.

Quarterback: Trent Edwards left Miami with his first start of the year that failed to score a touchdown. Granted he still has not had two in one game but he had always managed to score the one. But he has remained above 220 passing yards in almost every game and has maintained enough fantasy value to be worthy of a bye week filler. But he also has five lost fumbles and four interceptions and again - he never throws more than one touchdown.

Edwards passed for 234 yards and one score against the Jets last year

Running Backs: The season is about half over and Marshawn Lynch still has not gained more than 83 rushing yards in any game. Perhaps the easiest schedule of any running back in the league and he has never had more than 83 rushing yards. He has had more than 19 carries in a game only once this year (the 83 yards on 23 carries versus the Raiders) thanks in part to Fred Jackson who had 19 carries over the last two weeks.

Lynch has scored six touchdowns to prop up his fantasy value and lately has been getting around four receptions per week. But Lynch has been a disappointment at least compared to expectations on the season.

Lynch rushed for 79 yards and one touchdown when the Jets visited in 2007.

Wide Receivers: Lee Evans broke his three game scoring streak but still posted a season high 116 yards on seven receptions in Miami. No matter what happens in the game or what Edwards has as final passing stats, Evans has come through every week with either good yardage and/or a score. He is the only wideout of note on the team especially now that Josh Reed is out indefinitely with an Achilles tendon strain. That means the rookie James Hardy will step in as the starting flanker this week and beyond. Hardy has only had seven catches over five games played so he has small expectations. The offense just does not throw much outside of Lee Evans.

Evans had six receptions for 72 yards when the Jets showed up last year.

Tight Ends: Robert Royal remains just an average tight end who has only one score on the year and rarely more than 20 yards in a game.

Match Against the Defense: The Jets rushing defense has been improved this year and no runners have topped 75 rushing yards against them this season. I like Lynch to get one touchdown but to continue to post just moderate yardage where a big game should seemingly lie.

Edwards goes against a secondary that has always allowed at least one touchdown if not two and the Jets are very soft against tight ends. Look for a decent game from Royal and Evans who should both score. If Favre starts chunking interceptions - and when has he not - it will shorten the field and the yardage but allow the scores.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 17 17 18 24 6 14
Preventing Fantasy Points    NYJ 28 12 14 31 11 29

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