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IDP Dynasty Watch - Week 9
Steve Gallo
October 30, 2008
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IDP Dynasty Watch is a weekly article that looks at players values for the future (2-4 years).  Also, a player doesn’t have to be a rookie or second year guy to be included but as often as possible I will be focusing on younger players.  However, with that said there are plenty of 30+ year old players that are productive into their mid thirties and would be viable dynasty watch candidates under the correct circumstances.

Last week I changed things up a bit and didn’t say who I was talking about and instead said I would give that answer this week.  Well a couple of people guessed correctly in the comments section of that article.  Last week the article was about ANGELO CROWELL.  Now let’s move onto this week’s article.  The theme for this week is going to be “what have you done for me lately”.  What that means is that we will be taking a look at a couple of players that have been on fire for the past three weeks and look at their long term outlook too.

Gibril Wilson – Oakland Raiders
Position: SS                                                                                                  
Drafted: 5th round (136th overall)
Wilson is another 2nd day draft selection (2004) that has turned into a fantasy stud.  Currently, Wilson is averaging 16.86 PPG(points/game).  Not only is that good that is good enough to be the best PPG among all DBs season to date.  The thing that is great from a dynasty perspective is that number is close to his previous 4 year total of 14.61 PPG.  In each of the past 4 years Wilson has ranked 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th in PPG among all DBs.  Those previous four years were playing for the Giants but Wilson hasn’t missed a step since moving to the Oakland Raiders this past offseason.  All he is doing for Oakland is racking up tackles at a pace that will put him at a career best 139 tackles.  His IDP TOP*for the season is .171 which is a strong number for a DB.  As a comparison, the top two DBs for the season are at .148 (Weddle) & .133 (Gamble).   The Raiders defense is pretty young and actually a very good defense.  The next few years should prove to be just as productive for Wilson.  The one major thing that could hurt Wilson’s future scoring potential could be the improvement of the Raider offense.  Even then you just have to look to Wilson’s time with the Giants to see that he is going to be productive no matter what.  Wilson has missed some time over the course of his career due to injury but I wouldn’t let affect how you look at his future. 

Dewayne White – Detroit Lions
Position: DE
Drafted: 2nd round (64th overall)
I am sure that many fantasy owners would be very surprised to see that over the past three weeks that Dewayne White is the top scoring DL.  White is probably one of the most under the radar former 2nd round selections (2003) there is going in IDP leagues.   Last year White logged his career high in tackles (43) and sacks (6.5 sacks).  White also recorded 43 tackles and 5 sacks after his final year (2006) with the Buccaneers.  Last year, White missed a couple of games due to injury and really tailed off after his return.  He finished 2007 as the 29th ranked DL.  In 2006, he ranked 43rd so he has shown steady improvement over the past couple of years.  It is hard to get very excited about what seems to be run of the mill DLs but White is a guy that truly isn’t getting the respect he is showing that he deserves.  White makes for a nice number 2 DL but should come at a much much cheaper price.  His owners probably don’t even realize he is the top DL over the past 3 weeks (I didn’t and I own him).   With all that said, don’t expect White to remain a top 10 DL, expecting that would be a stretch.  White should settle in as a nice solid number 2 DL.  He could see double digit sacks for the next couple of seasons but that to might be just a bit of a stretch.  Enjoy the ride while it lasts and if someone wants to buy White from you and you can extract top 5 DL value from him then you by all means should look at doing so.

The basic definition of IDP TOP (Tackle Opportunity Production) is that it measures the performance of a player based on the number of tackle opportunities that they have.  The higher the IDP TOP the better.  Tackle opportunity is currently being defined as the number of rushing attempts plus the number of completions that a defense faces in a game.  Below is an example to help better understand IDP TOP.

NY Giants Offense has: 26 rushes and 19 completions for a total of 45 tackle opportunities (TOs).
New England Patriots LB Tedy Bruschi recorded 5 solo tackles and 3 assists. 
TOP for Bruschi on solo tackles is .111 (5 divided by 45)
TOP for Bruschi on assists is .067 (3 divided by 45)
TOP for Bruschi on combined tackles is .178 (8 divided by 45)
Green Bay Packers Offense has: 14 rushes and 19 completions for a total of 33 TOs.
New York Giants DB Gibril Wilson recorded 5 solo tackles and 3 assists.
TOP for Wilson on solo tackles is .152 (5 divided by 33)
TOP for Wilson on assists is .091 (3 divided by 33)
TOP for Wilson on combined tackles is .242 (8 divided by 33)

In the above example what TOP helps to illustrate is that just looking at the recorded tackles doesn’t tell the entire story.  Both players recorded 5 solo tackles and 3 assists yet Gibril Wilson was 36% to 37% more productive then Bruschi was.  If Bruschi had achieved the same TOP as Wilson he would have recorded 7 solo tackles and 4 assists.  It might not seem like much but it surely can make a difference.

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