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IDP Dynasty Watch - Week 10
Steve Gallo
November 6, 2008
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IDP Dynasty Watch is a weekly article that looks at players values for the future (2-4 years).  Also, a player doesn’t have to be a rookie or second year guy to be included but as often as possible I will be focusing on younger players.  However, with that said there are plenty of 30+ year old players that are productive into their mid thirties and would be viable dynasty watch candidates under the correct circumstances.

Paul Posluszny – Buffalo Bills
Position: MLB                                                                                                  
Drafted: 2nd round (34th overall)
Posluszny was a very highly regarded and sought after LB in last year’s rookie drafts for dynasty leaguers.  He was the 5th LB selected in the 2007 NFL Draft being drafted after Patrick Willis, Lawrence Timmons, Jon Beason & Anthony Spencer.  Unfortunately, his season came to an abrupt end when he broke his arm in the Bills 3rd game of the season.  Up to that point he had logged 22 tackles in his first 2 games and 4 tackles in just 16 tackle opportunities in the 3rd game.  His IDP TOP* last year was .208 and to put that in perspective Patrick Willis had an IDP TOP of .205 last year.  With a shortened rookie campaign you may have expected to see “Poz” fly under the radar but that surely wasn’t the case entering the season.  Many fantasy football experts and owners alike had Posluszny ranked in the top 10 or better in dynasty rankings.  There were some owners at the start of this season that were questioning his high rankings and some were even considering him a bust.  Posluszny has been anything but a bust.  In his short career, you may be surprised to know that he has only scored less than double digits in one game and that was the game he broke his arm in.  At the halfway point of this season, Posluszny is on pace for 100 solo tackles which is something only 5 players did last year.     Actually, since 2004 there have never been more than 6 players in any given year to record 100 or more solo tackles.  With that production what is surprising is that his IDP TOP has dipped to .156 this year but that does leave room for improvement in his numbers.  Also, don’t discredit the .156 IDP TOP as Kirk Morrison, another highly regarded dynasty LB has an IDP TOP of .163 and ranks 6th in PPG among LBs.  In his 11 games that Posluszny has played in he has only failed to record 5 or more tackles just twice, once being the game he was injured in last year.  The Bills seem to be a team that is heading in the right direction and the improvement of their offense is probably going to limit his production enough to keep him from being a top 3 or so LB but if you don’t own him I would still recommend buying him and if you own him keep him.  Right now Posluszny is ranked as the 16th best LB averaging 14.63 PPG which extrapolates to 234.08 fantasy points which would have been good for the 11th most fantasy points scored last year.  So it is still pretty easy to see why Posluszny was highly rated going into the season and why I highly recommend acquiring him if you can.  The good news is that Posluszny is young and is still going to get better so sit back and enjoy the ride because he truly is a big play here and there away from making everyone realize he is the real deal.

The basic definition of IDP TOP (Tackle Opportunity Production) is that it measures the performance of a player based on the number of tackle opportunities that they have.  The higher the IDP TOP the better.  Tackle opportunity is currently being defined as the number of rushing attempts plus the number of completions that a defense faces in a game.  Below is an example to help better understand IDP TOP.


NY Giants Offense has: 26 rushes and 19 completions for a total of 45 tackle opportunities (TOs).
New England Patriots LB Tedy Bruschi recorded 5 solo tackles and 3 assists. 
TOP for Bruschi on solo tackles is .111 (5 divided by 45)
TOP for Bruschi on assists is .067 (3 divided by 45)
TOP for Bruschi on combined tackles is .178 (8 divided by 45)

Green Bay Packers Offense has: 14 rushes and 19 completions for a total of 33 TOs.
New York Giants DB Gibril Wilson recorded 5 solo tackles anerd 3 assists.
TOP for Wilson on solo tackles is .152 (5 divided by 33)
TOP for Wilson on assists is .091 (3 divided by 33)
TOP for Wilson on combined tackles is .242 (8 divided by 33)

In the above example what TOP helps to illustrate is that just looking at the recorded tackles doesn’t tell the entire story.  Both players recorded 5 solo tackles and 3 assists yet Gibril Wilson was 36% to 37% more productive then Bruschi was.  If Bruschi had achieved the same TOP as Wilson he would have recorded 7 solo tackles and 4 assists.  It might not seem like much but it surely can make a difference.

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