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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2008 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: TEN 23, JAX 14

Update:Matt Jones missed practice on Wednesday and Friday and was limited on Thursday because of his thigh. He will be a game time decision and it will be a later game on Sunday as well. If he cannot play, it would likely promote up Jerry Porter and make Mike Walker the #3 wideout. I am adjusting Jones' projections down and realize he may not even play. Jones is the main weapon in the passing attack, this is a bad week not to be there for his team.

This should be a change of pace for the Jaguars since they played the last two weeks against teams that had not win a game (and losing to the Bengals) and now play the only team without a loss. The Titans are undefeated but not breezing through games like the Patriots of 2007. The Titans just always end up good enough to win in a variety of manners. The Titans are four games ahead of the Colts and five ahead of these Jaguars and this is a nice place to drop a game but this is divisional play and the Titans won't mail it in against a long-time rival.

The Titans won the home opener 17-10 over the Jaguars.

Tennessee Titans (9-0)
Homefield: LP Field
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 JAX 17-10 +3 37
2 @CIN 24-7 +1 37.5
3 HOU 31-12 -5 38.5
4 MIN 30-17 -3 36
5 @BAL 17-10 -3 35
6 BYE - - -
7 @KC 34-10 -8 35.5
8 IND 31-21 -4 42
9 GB 19-16 -5.5 42.5
10 @CHI 21-14 -3 38.5
11 @JAX - -3 39.5
12 NYJ - - -
13 @DET - - -
14 CLE - - -
15 @HOU - - -
16 PIT - - -
17 @IND - - -
TEN @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins     190,1
RB Chris Johnson 80 30  
RB Lendale White 40,1    
TE Bo Scaife   40,1  
WR Justin Gage   50  
WR Brandon Jones   50  
PK Rob Bironas 3 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The scary part about this week is that should the Titans win here, they only play the Jets, Lions, Browns and Texans next. They could well be 14-0 on the season before hosting the Steelers. You have start wondering too if the Titans will consider resting players at all which could hurt fantasy playoffs for Chris Johnson and Lendale White owners.

Quarterback: Kerry Collins had only passed for three touchdowns this season and never topped 200 passing yards in a game but in Chicago against a team selling out to stop the run, Collins came to life. He ended with 289 yards and two scores while the rushing game came slamming back to earth. That's a development the rest of the league did not want to see.

The season opener had Vince Young pass for 110 yards and one score and then Kerry Collins came in for 65 more yards.

Running Backs: It was almost surreal last week when Chris Johnson was held to only eight yards on 14 carries by the Bears. He had scored five times over the last five games and had been great at gaining at last 60 yards per week. But the Bears stuffed him and LenDale White as well who only turned in 14 yards on ten carries with one touchdown. And the Bears lost the game when the Titans suddenly could throw the ball with ease. Stopping the run here doesn't stop the Titans though the theory was sound until last week.

White remains #1 in the NFL with 11 rushing touchdowns and has only failed to score in two of the ten games this season.

Johnson rushed for 93 yards on 15 carries and White added 40 yards and one touchdown in the first meeting with the Jaguars.

Wide Receivers: Apparently there are wide receivers that play for the Titans, they just had not been used until last week. Brandon Jones led the team with eight catches for 82 yards and Justin Gage scored once on his four receptions for 47 yards. That still lags what most teams do every week but it was the most productive passing game in the last seven weeks and a sign that the Titans can produce through the air if they must. There is just absolutely no relying on them doing that in a given week.

Tight Ends: The big passing effort in Chicago was mostly thanks to Bo Scaife who had a career best ten catches for 78 yards and one score. He had been hanging around 40 yards in most games but once the need to pass accelerated, so did Scaife who is central to the passing attack - when they actually use it.

Scaife had six catches for 105 yards against the Jags in week one.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars rank below average against the run and it's really even worse than that. They have only allowed seven rushing touchdowns this year but even bad teams have been getting four yards per carry or better against them and overall they average allowing 4.3 yards per carry. Now they face what was the #1 rushing attack. Look for a bounce back game for White and Johnson here but not a monster game since it is on the road.

Collins faces a weak secondary as well and should manage to have at least one passing score as have every opponent of the Jags this year. This should play out to be a lower scoring affair so just the one passing score will likely be enough. That could go anywhere but I will assign it to Scaife since he had a great game against them in week one and has been a favorite for Collins.

Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 32 2 31 9 9 9
Preventing Fantasy Points    JAC 27 19 18 25 7 3

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @TEN 10-17 -3 37
2 BUF 16-20 -6 38
3 @IND 23-21 +5.5 42
4 HOU 30-27 -7.5 42
5 PIT 21-26 -4 36
6 @DEN 24-17 +3.5 48
7 BYE - - -
8 CLE 17-23 -6.5 41
9 @CIN 19-21 -7.5 40
10 @DET 38-14 -6.5 44.5
11 TEN - +3 39.5
12 MIN - - -
13 @HOU - - -
14 @CHI - - -
15 GB - - -
16 IND - - -
17 @BAL - - -
JAX vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     190,1
RB Fred Taylor 30    
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 40,1 20  
TE Marcedes Lewis   30,1  
WR Jerry Porter   20  
WR Matt Jones GTD 30  
WR Reggie Williams   30  
PK Josh Scobee 2 XP    

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars come off a solid win over the winless Lions and that makes up for losing to the Browns and Bengals (no it doesn't). The Jaguars have battled wild inconsistency this year and the last three games were perfect examples. They were favored by around a touchdown in each game and lost one by six points, lost another by two points and then won one by 24 points. The problem now is that the Jaguars are 4-5 and have already played the easy part of their schedule.

Quarterback: David Garrard has turned in a nice stretch of games with the last four efforts all ringing up over 230 yards but that should have happened because they went against the bad defenses of DEN, CLE, CIN and DET. He would have had to try not to produce that much and even still only had five touchdowns over those four cakewalk games that only produced a 2-2 record. This week starts the much more challenging portion of Garrard's season and so far there is little optimism that he and the team around him are up to the task.

Garrard passed for 215 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions in Tennessee this year.

Running Backs: Maurice Jones-Drew comes off a three touchdown effort over the Lions when he ran for 70 yards on just 11 carries. This four game easy stretch has seen him score six touchdowns but he only had one game over 70 rushing yards and only averaged around 60 yards per week against the weakest of opponents. Now he will be back to opponents like the first five weeks when he was averaging only around 35 yards per week and scored only three times.

Fred Taylor hangs on apparently only to chunk a few more yards on his career totals because he has been worthless in all but two games and averages less than 40 yards per week. He had four games with less than 20 rushing yards in them. He hasn't scored. He's pretty much done but no one is telling him.

Taylor and Jones-Drew combined for only 31 rushing yards against the Titans in week one.

Wide Receivers: Matt Jones remains the only player here with any fantasy value and even he had marginal at best since he is locked around 60 yards or so every week. Jerry Porter has actually shown up in the last two games and even had a touchdown but that was only two receptions for around 35 yards in both games against the Bengals and Lions. Hardly a reason for optimism. This unit is limited to Matt Jones and on a rare occasion another wideout has a decent game to help out.

Jones led all wideouts with six catches for 80 yards versus the Titans this year.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis continues with a surprisingly strong showing and last week tied his season best with four catches for 64 yards. He only has two scores on the season but he's been good for around 40 yards per week during this month of soft secondaries. The next couple of games will show if that was just a function of playing a weak opponent or if Lewis will remain one of the primary targets.

Lewis turned in three receptions for 29 yards against the Titans this season.

Match Against the Defense: What the Jaguars have to hope for is that the Titans try to mail in this game but that seems unlikely from a divisional foe. The Titans have been weaker against the run but the Jaguars are struggling to get much out of Jones-Drew and Taylor. Look for one rushing score by Jones-Drew and moderate yardage and he could possibly have two.

Garrard had a decent game in week one with 215 yards and one score in Tennessee which still falls into line with what the Titans allow. The Titans are so good against wideouts that the one score should favor Lewis the most. In week one it ended up with Greg Jones.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 14 10 25 19 18 12
Preventing Fantasy Points    TEN 4 13 2 23 1 1

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