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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 13
~ 2008 ~
Season Ticket
Thanksgiving
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Monday
Update *

Prediction: CAR 17, GB 24

The Panthers are now tied for the NFC South lead after being demolished in Atlanta last week and the Panthers are only 2-3 on the road this year. The Packers come off their own loss to the Saints and are now one game behind the Bears and Vikings for the NFC North title. They are 3-2 in home games this season.

The Packers won 31-17 when the Panthers visited during week 11 last year.

Carolina Panthers (8-3)
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @SD 26-24 +9 42
2 CHI 20-17 -3 37
3 @MIN 10-20 +3.5 37
4 ATL 24-9 -7 39.5
5 KC 34-0 -9.5 38.5
6 @TB 3-27 +1.5 36.5
7 NO 30-7 -3 44
8 ARZ 27-23 -4.5 43.5
9 BYE - - -
10 @OAK 17-6 -9 38
11 DET 31-22 -14 39.5
12 @ATL 28-45 +1 42.5
13 @GB - +3 43
14 TB - - -
15 DEN - - -
16 @NYG - - -
17 @NO - - -
CAR at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Delhomme     180,1
RB DeAngelo Williams 110,1 20  
TE Dante Rosario   20  
WR Steve Smith   60  
WR Muhsin Muhammad   40,1  
WR D.J. Hackett   30  
PK John Kasay 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Panthers have rolled up an impressive 8-3 record but have been humbled on the road this year other than a win in Oakland. The schedule has been delightfully light so far facing AFC West and NFC North teams but this week, then Tampa Bay and then in New York to face the Giants will proved to be major challenges. What plays into this week as well is that the Buccaneers wait on the other side and that game should be for the division title.

Quarterback: Jake Delhomme's production this year has really jumped around in part because of the strength of the schedule and in part because the rushing game has been improving and making the need to pass decrease. Delhomme has passed for at least one score in each of the last five games and was on a two touchdown run in four of five weeks before hitting an easier stretch of the schedule. What matters here is that Delhomme has passed for two scores in four games this year - everyone of them at home. Over five road games this year he only has three touchdowns and never more than one per week.

Last year it was Vinnie Testaverde playing quarterback for the Panthers in Green Bay and he passed for 258 yards and two touchdowns against two interceptions.

Running Backs: 2008 is proving to be a wasted season for the rookie Jonathan Stewart who has battled toe and heel problems while De Angelo Williams finally shows up in the way we have expected for three years. Stewart only had five carries last week and was wearing a protective boot after the game. Williams has rushed for 100+ yards in each of the last four games and scored in every one. He doesn't do much as a receiver but Williams has finally developed into a productive runner and scorer.

I am holding Stewart out of the projections until he looks healthy again and contributes something significant.

The Panthers rushed for 109 yards on 26 carries in Green Bay last season.

Wide Receivers: Steve Smith had been kind of quiet for two weeks but made up for that with a league leading 168 yards on eight receptions in Atlanta last week. That gives Smith four 100 yard efforts so far and last week was the first time he did that on the road. Smith has only scored in three games this year and each time he was at home. Oddly enough, Muhsin Muhammad has scored twice in the last three weeks - both in road games. Smith commands such focus and respect by the defense that Muhammad scores better in tougher road games. No other receivers for Carolina have scored of exceeded 50 yards in any game.

Steve Smith did not play in the previous meeting with the Packers but Drew Carter turned in 132 yards and one touchdown.

Tight Ends: Marginal stats at best from Dante Rosario or Jeff King. Each have only one score on the season and neither produce fantasy relevant yardage.

Match Against the Defense: The Packers have been very soft against the run no matter if they are at home or on the road. They have allowed nine rushing scores and six of those were in Green Bay, They have allowed five runners to exceed 100 rushing yards as well so look for no worse than a good game here by Williams with at least one rushing score. It could potentially turn into a very big game.

Delhomme goes against one of the best secondaries and while Brees lit them up on Monday night for 323 yards and four scores, much of that came on three long completions in a road game. The Packers have only allowed four passing scores in total over the five games played in Green Bay and that includes Tony Romo and Peyton Manning. This is the team that held Terrell Owens to 17 yards on two catches and Reggie Wayne had 24 yards on two receptions. Look for one score and only moderate yardage and even that much may be optimistic.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 24 9 17 26 15 19
Preventing Fantasy Points    GB 4 25 4 21 22 7


Green Bay Packers (5-5)
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 MIN 24-19 -3 38.5
2 @DET 48-25 -3 45
3 DAL 16-27 +3 51
4 @TB 21-30 +1.5 43
5 ATL 24-27 -3 41
6 @SEA 27-17 +2.5 46.5
7 IND 34-14 +1 47
8 BYE - - -
9 @TEN 16-19 +5.5 42.5
10 @MIN 27-28 +2.5 45.5
11 CHI 37-3 -3.5 43
12 @NO 29-51 +1 51.5
13 CAR - -3 43
14 HOU - - -
15 @JAX - - -
16 @CHI - - -
17 DET - - -
GB vs CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers     200,1
RB Ryan Grant 100,1    
TE Donald Lee   20,1  
WR Donald Driver   50  
WR Greg Jennings   60  
WR Jordy Nelson   20  
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: Tough loss on Monday night when the dam burst and the Saints start scoring in every sort of manner. The Packers still have an outside shot at the division but the probability is about to move to a calculator to determine soon enough. The Packers have no room for error anymore and these next two home games should set them up for a final run or kill off their chances. The Packers have lost three games since the bye week but the Titans and Vikings road trips were lost by a total of just three points. The Packers are better than their record suggests but that doesn't matter.

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers had a decent game in New Orleans but his 248 yards and two touchdowns were negated by three interceptions that all gave or set up the Saints for a score. His 17 passing touchdowns are balanced by only nine interceptions but only two came in home games. Rodgers has been solid for a first year starter - he just never gets to be considered a first year starter following Brett Favre.

The Packers passed for 218 yards and three touchdowns against the Panthers last season.

Running Backs: Ryan Grant took a slight tumble from what had been an impressive six week run when he only gained 67 yards on 18 carries in New Orleans but he only had two runs in the second half and also threw in three receptions for 19 yards. Grant is almost back to the highly productive ways of 2007 and these next two home games should help feed his stats.

Grant rushed for 88 yards on 20 carries versus the Panthers in 2007.

Wide Receivers: Greg Jennings finally broke a four game dry spell when he had both a touchdown and 101 yards for the first time since week four. His six weeks below the 100 yard mark were still productive but Jennings had started the year with the most yardage in the NFL through week three before reverting to being a mortal. Jennings now has six touchdowns on the season and two in the last two weeks.

Donald Driver only had 43 yards in New Orleans but that us around where he ends up in most games this year. He has three scores on the season but only one game over 100 yards.

Jennings led all Packers receivers when he had seven catches for 48 yards and one touchdown against the Panthers last year.

Tight Ends: Rodgers continues to mix in the three tight ends but Donald Lee is the primary with three scores - the only by a tight end - and usually around 20 yards per week.

Match Against the Defense: The Panthers weakness is more against the run and Michael Turner's four scores last week are an extreme example. There have been three runners who have topped 100 yards against them and five have scored at least once. Grant is running better the later it gets in the season and back at home should get at least close to the 100 yard mark and can cross it unless this becomes an unlikely shootout. Look for one rushing score as well.

Rodgers faces a secondary that has been very good this year but which have faced a cream puff schedule. The Panthers have only allowed eight passing scores but those include Warner (381, 2 TD) and Rivers (217, 3 TD). Rodgers won't go off with that big a game but he should nail down at least one passing score that probably favors either a tight end or a running back the most. I also like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 6 28 6 23 5 1
Preventing Fantasy Points    CAR 3 15 5 16 8 4

The Huddle
WEEK 13
~ 2008 ~
Season Ticket
Thanksgiving
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Monday
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Tuesday Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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