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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 16
~ 2008 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
 
* updated

Prediction: IND 27, JAC 13

Update: Marvin Harrison did not make the trip to Jacksonville because of a hamstring pull and is removed from the projections. Both Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders are still gametime decisions but they made the trip and are likely to play. I am tweaking Addai's stats and adding Rhodes in. The absence of Harrison is not a major problem but he did command attention by the secondary. If you plan on using Addai, you need to make sure he is active for the game.

Here's another game that shows how a season changes. The Jaguars won 23-21 at Indianapolis back in week three and are now 5-9 after losing four of their last five games. They are only 2-5 at home. The Colts are on a league best seven game winning streak and are looking like the wildcard no one wants to play in the playoffs. Bob Sanders is expected back - again - so that hurts the only positive the Jags have in Jones-Drew.

Indianapolis Colts (10-4)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 CHI 13-29 -9.5 44
2 @MIN 18-15 -2 43.5
3 JAX 21-23 -5.5 42
4 BYE - - -
5 @HOU 31-27 -3 47.5
6 BAL 31-3 -4.5 39
7 @GB 14-34 -1 47
8 @TEN 21-31 +4 42
9 NE 18-15 -5.5 45
10 @PIT 24-20 +3.5 38.5
11 HOU 33-27 -9 50
12 @SD 23-20 +3 49.5
13 @CLE 10-6 -4.5 45
14 CIN 35-3 -14 42.5
15 DET 31-21 -17 45
16 @JAX - -6 44
17 TEN - - -
IND @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning     250,2
RB Joseph Addai 70 10  
RB Dominic Rhodes 30,1    
TE Dallas Clark   60  
WR Marvin Harrison 60,1
WR Reggie Wayne   90,1  
WR Anthony Gonzalez   70,1  
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP  
Pregame Notes: Sort of hard to argue with a seven game winning streak and these Colts are looking very dangerous for January with a team that is now getting back to health. Both Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders are expected to be able to play this week and were held out of the Detroit game knowing that this would be four days later and, well, it was just the Lions and all hands did not need be on deck to get that win.

Quarterback: This seven game winning streak has seen Peyton Manning return to the productive ways of past seasons and he has thrown for multiple scores in eight of the last 11 games and topped 300 yards twice. The schedule has become far kinder in recent weeks but Manning had three scores when they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh.

Manning passed for 216 yards and one score against the Jaguars this year.

Running Backs: Dominic Rhodes got his shot at the Lions last week and rolled up 116 total yards and two scores while Joseph Addai rested his shoulder instead. But Addai is expected to play this week and will resume the starting role. You still cannot assume Addai to be the full-time back though since he has had more than 17 carries in only one game this year. Rhodes will still figure in.

Addai rushed for 78 yards and two scores when the Jags visited in week three.

Wide Receivers: Reggie Wayne has done little more than be a decoy in these weeks of winning but finally had 104 yards on seven receptions last week - against the Lions. And even then he did not score and has not since week nine. Wayne's numbers have dipped but largely because the team was winning games without him. Manning has been mixing Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez in with Wayne to where each has some moderate yardage but none have a big game.

If any facet is most curious, it is why Wayne has scored only once in the last nine weeks? His last two scores came against the Steelers and Ravens. Manning doesn't use him until facing the toughest of adversaries.

Harrison scored once but only managed 40 yards on four catches against the Jaguars this year. Wayne was held to only three catches for 74 yards.

Tight Ends: Dallas Clark had been only mildly effective this year with just three scores and the majority of games ending with well under 50 yards but those who waited until week 15 were rewarded when he had a career high 12 catches for 142 yards and one touchdown. That sound you are hearing are the Reggie Wayne owners still not clapping.

Clark had four receptions for 47 yards against the Jags this year.

Match Against the Defense: The Jaguars at home have been far better against the run and only allowed four runners to score and none to top 100 rushing yards. Look for a decent to good game here from Joseph Addai that has moderate yardage and the chance for one score if his shoulder holds up and they do not give it to Rhodes.

Manning goes against a secondary that has allowed three passing scores to visiting quarterbacks on three different occasions this year and Manning is on a hot streak. Look for high 200's in passing and at least two touchdowns. One has to favor Marvin Harrison and Gonzalez from the slot looks appealing as well.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 22 9 6 27 15
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 21 18 20 26 20 10


Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @TEN 10-17 -3 37
2 BUF 16-20 -6 38
3 @IND 23-21 +5.5 42
4 HOU 30-27 -7.5 42
5 PIT 21-26 -4 36
6 @DEN 24-17 +3.5 48
7 BYE - - -
8 CLE 17-23 -6.5 41
9 @CIN 19-21 -7.5 40
10 @DET 38-14 -6.5 44.5
11 TEN 14-24 +3 39.5
12 MIN 12-30 -2.5 40
13 @HOU 17-30 +3 48
14 @CHI 10-23 +6.5 40
15 GB 20-16 +1.5 45
16 IND - +6 44
17 @BAL - - -
JAX vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     170
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 80,1 40  
TE Marcedes Lewis   20  
WR Dennis Northcutt   50  
WR Reggie Williams   30  
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 1 XP  

Pregame Notes: The win over the Packers last week finally ended a four game losing streak but now Fred Taylor is out of the picture and the final two games in this losing season are against the Colts and Ravens. This is the final home game of the year and a chance to end on a high note especially after beating the Packers last week but the Jags franchise has been on a slide for the entire season and chances are there will be new faces on the team next year in many spots. This has been the most challenging and disappointing season for the Jaguars perhaps ever.

Quarterback: David Garrard passed for two scores last Sunday but he's been solid with one score per game and has 13 passing touchdowns on the year against ten interceptions. Garrard was never able to bring life into the passing attack this season after a promising end to 2007.

Garrard passed for 167 yards in Indianapolis this year.

Running Backs: Fred Taylor is on injured reserve now and may have already played his last in Jacksonville since he would be owed $6 million to remain in 2009. Alvin Pearman is back to add depth but these final three weeks are a chance for Maurice Jones-Drew to show what he can do as the full-time back who does not share. This golden opportunity started last week with the win over the Packers when he rushed for 48 yards on 12 carries and scored once and added a second touchdown when he had four receptions for 22 yards. Decent start a bit light on the carries though. Week 17 in Baltimore may not be much fun either but Jones-Drew has been successful against the Colts before when Taylor ran for 121 yards and Jones-Drew added 107 yards and one score in Indianapolis this year. Bob Sanders is supposed to be back which could limit Jones-Drew.

Wide Receivers: Jerry Porter is now in injured reserve as the most expensive mistake the Jags have made. He was roughly paid $1 million per catch and never made any difference except to the team accounting ledger. Dennis Northcutt became the starter and had a season high (for the entire team) game of five catches for 127 yards and one score. This was Northcutt's first foray into the endzone or over 50 yards this season.

Reggie Williams only has 55 yards as a season high and has scored three times but poses minimal threat to opponents. No wideout gained more than 43 yards against the Colts this year.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis has only provided marginal fantasy value this year but at least most of his best games have been on the road. Then again that still only around 50 yards and only scoring twice all year.

Match Against the Defense: David Garrard did not score against the Colts last time and neither have ten other quarterbacks this year. The Colts have been outstanding against the pass and only five touchdown in total have been passed against them. This is no week to rely on Garrard and crew.

Jones- Drew faces a defense that has been poor against the run but Bob Sanders is back. And the rushing defense has improved anyway so look for a decent to good game here by Jones-Drew with a good chance at one touchdown but anything more than that will be to his credit alone.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 14 12 24 23 29 24
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 1 26 2 7 23 6

The Huddle
WEEK 16
~ 2008 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
   
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Tuesday Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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