FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

There's little more lovable than having your own stud running back - and owning two is even better. In the times of running -back-by-committee, finding a true full-time back is hard enough without worrying when a player makes their eventual downturn for good. The old rule of thumb was the "30 year old wall". With players like LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook fast approaching 30, it's time to look back in the NFL for an idea of what other good running backs did.

There are hundreds of running backs either playing or on practice squads or on the periphery waiting for a chance to play. But what fantasy football is all about is starting running backs and the more studly the better. So for a set of players that have seen success in the recent past, let's consider the 105 running backs who have placed in the top 20 at least once in the last ten years (standard performance scoring).

From that objective universe, let's pare down to just the players who have retired and had at least three appearances in the top 20 over the last ten years. That leaves us 28 very productive and retired running backs.

That's a good set of players to dig into though certainly some are more "studly" than others. Breaking down these players with some interesting and notable characteristics:

Height and Weight - Wide variation but notable that the lighter players (less than say 220 pounds) fared better. The top scoring backs of all time were almost all less than 212 pounds though players are getting bigger each season. Longevity is best served by a super talent of small to medium size.

RB1 and RB2 seasons - Each season the top ten running backs will typically score around 200 or more points (the top player often pushes 300 or even 350 points). But top ten equates to deserving to be an RB1 in a fantasy league. An RB2 is a player who scored 150 to 199 points which typically fall to the players who rank 11th to 20th each season. RB1 seasons are perhaps the best measurement to define a true stud running back. Ten of the above players only managed two seasons or less as an RB1 and cannot be considered a stud. They were in the right place at the right time twice.

Total 1000 Rushing Yard Seasons - Only eleven of the players rushed for more than 1000 yards more than four times - the real mark of a stud back. Four years appears to be the dividing line between "very good" and "great". It is also a sign of how the game wears on a player since Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson and Priest Holmes had injuries cut their career short.

First 1000 Rushing Yard Season - The top 14 players all topped their first 1000 rushing yard season as either a rookie or second-year player. While a few waited longer, even they contained players that waited more because of being a backup or an injury. It never takes long for the best running backs to show up. 1000 rushing yards in a season is just 63 yards per game.

Last 1000 Rushing Yard Season - Eleven players had their final 1000 rushing yard season when they were 30 or older though only Emmitt had one after 31 years old (and that was just the next year). That doesn't necessarily say they were still great players since they could have rushed for 1001 yards and one touchdown - hardly worthy of being anything more than a very mediocre RB2. But notable here is that eight of the top ten running backs all lasted to 30 or 31 years old. Marshall Faulk was a hybrid receiver/running back who had around 1100 total yards while 30 and 31 years old.

Peak Season - This is defined as the season with the most fantasy points using standard performance scoring. Incredibly there were five players who had their career best season at the age of 30 (Martin was 31). But those other 30 year olds were Barber (under-used early in his career), Corey Dillon (moving to New England), Priest Holmes (under-used early in his career) and Charlie Garner (under-used in most of his career). The most common age for a peak year was 27 years old with six but there was no clear trend as to when it would happen. Chances are best after their fifth season and a stud running back appears to be in his prime from around 26 through 30 years old.

Final Season - For a position that has a life span of around two or three years for most players, the stud running backs hang around a long time. Over half (15) lasted for ten seasons or more. Almost all of them played until around 32 or 33 years of age.

That's interesting to be sure but let's dig more into the true studs. There is a natural split where players have four or more seasons as a RB1 player. These backs all have seven or more 1000 yard seasons while all others only had four or less (excluding Bettis). Oddly enough, there is exactly ten players that are undeniably the studs of the last ten years.

Let's take a look at their entire careers by fantasy points. Green shading indicates 200+ points (RB1) and yellow shading indicates 150 - 199 points (RB2).

Barry Sanders was the most golden of all with only one year as an RB2 (injured) and the other nine being RB1. This makes it a little easier to see how it falls out. The ages of 26 and 27 were great years for almost every stud running back and then oddly enough 28 was a down year for half of the players. Half of them still had RB1 years at the age of 30 but only Watters, Martin and Barber had a RB1 quality season when they were 31 years old. None had one from 32 on if in fact they even played.

The six players above are the only current players who have turned in at least four seasons in the top 20. Of those, Steven Jackson is just now entering his 26th year but unlike the retired studs, 26 years of age were a little less successful but once again, all 27 year old guys had a great year. Thomas Jones is treading on thin ice as he turns 31 years old where most stud runners have either turned in their cleats or take a big step down. Tomlinson turns 30 this year and his eight year career has seen all seasons producing RB1 numbers. No one else in this study did that. Sanders and Faulk almost did but had one year each of downturn. Westbrook also turns 30 with a knee that is either going to doom his season or be a nonfactor as it mostly has been.

In terms of "stud" Westbrook, Portis, Lewis and Tomlinson really are the only current players who qualify as a long term running back stud.

To see how it changes by considering the years of experience, the above matrix shows a similar finding to what age did. The fourth season played was the golden year for all the retired studs which equates to 26 or 27 in almost all cases. The seventh season is when players started dropping out and while it continued on for about half of the players it suddenly stops for every stud back after the tenth season.

The seventh season was a good one for almost all the runners but the fourth one didn't fare nearly as well in this sample which suggest some of these runners are likely not going to be as studly looking by the time their career is over. The seventh season was a good one for most of these players. Jones has never had two straight seasons of RB1 numbers and now enters his tenth season where most falter if they are even playing. Tomlinson enters his ninth season with nary any RB2 or worse season so far. Barber, Faulk, Sanders and Watters all had RB1 quality eighth seasons followed by another good year. Barber and Sanders had career bests in their 9th season. Given Tomlinson's past, it isn't hard to see him follow what 9th seasons have been for top players. It would not be unusual for his class of player.

So now that we see that runners can last through their tenth season or even 31 years of age in the extreme, the last thing to look at is when did the ten studs start to downturn for good? For this measure, let's consider total yards gained and touches.

It is a little interesting that the three runners who declined in the 9th or lesser season were all 225 pounds or more. Bigger runners often take more punishment. Alexander proved surprisingly fast to burn out and was the only player in the group that went down hill before their 9th season. Sanders and Barber never did have a downturn before retiring and most lasted through their ninth season. the tenth season was the most common year to decline for stud running backs.

Let's see where the current players are. I am excluding Steven Jackson because he is too young and Thomas Jones because his career has been so spotty.

Lewis has not really seen a decline in workload, only in effectiveness. Portis is still relatively new with only 2285 touches compared where most studs end up. It certainly suggests that he has at least two more heavy work seasons if he falls in line with other studs of the past. Westbrook has only 1648 touches but had always been at least a slight injury risk that grows every year. Tomlinson comes off his least busy season in the NFL but still had 344 touches along with playing injured most of the year.

Not a lot of change here but interesting that the stud running backs were all the most productive after their fourth season. Perhaps counter-intuitive is that Barber, Martin, Sanders and Watters all had their best yardage in their 10th or even 11th seasons.

Westbrook returned to a level of production like before his two year skyrocket when the Eagles would not use any other runner but within that is a player who seem likely to have injury be an issue again this year. Tomlinson had a down year in 2008 with injuries but still had 1536 yards - hard to complain about. Lewis looks very much like he is trailing off which is in line for a bigger player (240 pounds). Portis had a great year and enters just his eighth season.

Conclusion: The genesis for the study was to investigate what the chances are that Tomlinson would have another good year. He is certainly deserving to be in the same company as the great runners who have retired in the last ten years and by that, it should be no shock for him to have a top-notch 2009 season. But after that, he'd be playing on borrowed time mostly. One thing that this review does clearly show is that there is no guarantees at any phase of a career. An injury could end a season - or a career - at any time. A few of the rules of thumb:

Age 27 seems to be the closest to magic for stud running backs and this season that could benefit Michael Turner, Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. The age of 26 was great for the retired studs but less so for the current studs. This year those would be DeAngelo Williams, Marion Barber, Frank Gore, Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson.

Weight (225 and over) seems to be at least a slight limiting factor for longevity. The heavier current starters include Brandon Jacobs (264), Jamal Lewis (245), Michael Turner (244), Ronnie Brown (232) and Steven Jackson (231).

There is a chance that the days of the stud running back are starting to close or at least there will be few players that will be a stud for any length of time. Last season the top ten running backs ended up to have only four players with any lengthy track record - Thomas Jones (9 and he's been spotty), Ladainian Tomlinson (8), Clinton Portis (7) and Brian Westbrook (7). The rest all were three years or less of experience as a starter - DeAngelo Williams (1st year as primary), Michael Turner (1st year as primary), Adrian Peterson (2), Matt Forte (1), Steve Slaton (1) and Maurice Jones-Drew (3). And Chris Johnson (1) was 11th. Either there is a huge turnover of stud runners going on or the continuing trend towards committee backfields will starve the position of heavy-use players.

Looking back at past stats is great for getting a general feel for positions and players but can never be solely relied on for judging a players season outlook. That's the dominion of message boards and comment sections.

COMMENTS (page 1 of 1)

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haysie

Posted Sep 5, 2009 4:14pm EDT

Great stuff. Very insightful.

Davekp

Posted Aug 4, 2009 2:39pm EDT

I can't understand this, I notice in an industry draft 'thehuddle" team selected Westbrook 10th or 11th overall, yet he's listed as a tier 4 RB. Is he going to be moved up? Should we avoid him? Thanks David.

DaveKP

Posted Aug 3, 2009 9:10am EDT

David, I'm a stat freak as well. I think it's really the only way to objectively look at/predict the future. I just renewed my subscription a few minutes ago and have been a huddle subscriber now for several years. Keep up the great work!

Mutt

Posted Aug 1, 2009 8:51am EDT

DD- great stuff as usual. It's hard to root against LT, so I hope he continues his greatness. As for the age thing, I wish I could be 30 or 31 again!!! Great read- thanks!

Bob K

Posted Jul 21, 2009 3:39pm EDT

Good content. We won't know for several years, but it will be interesting to see if it "use" or "age" that has caused 31 to be the end of the line. If it is use, then the rbbc may extend the useful life of a running back beyond 31. If I had to bet, I'd say it is age and we won't see much extension.

Bob B.

Posted Jul 20, 2009 9:52pm EDT

Not undrstanding why this site has Lomlinson and Steven Jackson so high. I think in most leagues they'd be around by the 5th and 6th spots

DMD

Posted Jul 19, 2009 12:39am EDT

Fixed - minor oversight. Thanks.

JA

Posted Jul 18, 2009 9:30pm EDT

I was wondering, on the charts that show fantasy point production...I noticed that on Emmitt Smith's rookie year it shows 182.5 points, which would put him at RB2 production. Yet, the box is not yellowed in, is this an error in number (182.5) or just a lack of color.

KB

Posted Jul 17, 2009 3:16pm EDT

Very insightful, thanks. Gives us confidence to take perceived "older" RB's over the annual "next great RB" like William Green. FWIW anytime the great Errict Rhett and Adrian Murrell appear in a Huddle article, you can be sure the research is thorough. Thanks David

BB2

Posted Jul 17, 2009 2:14pm EDT

This just makes me think that I already got Tomlinson for a steal when he fell to #7 in one of my drafts. It is sort of wierd how all the RBs all stopped at 31 though.

jf

Posted Jul 16, 2009 8:14pm EDT

I'm a stat freak. This was an awesome read. Thank you.

MT

Posted Jul 16, 2009 12:29pm EDT

This was a good read. Thanks for doing this analysis. I found it interesting that evidence shows that the bigger backs break down faster. Also interesting that peak seasons tended to be around year 5 for most of the retired list while their season with the most total touches tended to be year 6 or 7. Sort of leads to the idea that an overworked RB doesn't produce as well...

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