Sure it’s early, but is it ever too early for a mock draft?

Of course, that question is rhetorical. Because of the time constraints inherent in the publishing process, the magazines that you’ll soon be seeing on your newsstands are holding their mock drafts now. And with anywhere from two to three months until it counts—and because you want to walk into your real draft as prepared as possible—there’s little doubt you’ve started the process of figuring out who you’d take where.

Last offseason I lost count of the number of mocks and industry drafts I participated in; suffice it to say that I got to the point that I was able to actually conduct a draft for one of my leagues while coaching one of my son’s football practices—armed with nothing but a cell phone, a pen, and my predraft list. While that team made the playoffs, it’s not the kind of drafting conditions I’d advise you seek out.

But I digress.

The 2009 fantasy mock season, for me at least, kicked off with an industry draft through my good friends at Fantasy Football Champs. The final results can be viewed here; I’ll also list them below along with my own thoughts on how each round progressed.

This draft was for a non-PPR performance-based scoring system (roughly 50% TDs, 50% yardage), It went 18 rounds with the following required: three QBs, five RBs, six WRs, two TEs, one K, and one Team D/ST. I had the eighth overall selection in this serpentine draft.

ROUND 1

I did not enjoy being in the eight spot, and I am certainly not sold on Steven Jackson as my pick here. I thought about Brandon Jacobs, but his ADP was falling into the third round so I thought I’d see if he’d still be on the board for my second pick; obviously, that didn’t work out so well. My early rankings suggest this is a good draft if you’re holding pick four or above; outside of AP, Turner, MoJo and Forte it gets messy. I could have taken Jacobs, Westbrook, or Portis instead of Jackson and felt about the same degree of confidence; it appears as if this will be an area of the draft board requiring further analysis.

ROUND 2

With four premium receivers in this draft—and a couple months left to figure out just how long I can wait before getting shut out of quality running backs—I debated between Andre and Calvin. Moss would have been in the conversation as well, but he went just ahead of my pick. I opted for Andre; now we’ll see if there are still backs to be had.

ROUND 3

Every year I tell myself I’m going to wait on quarterbacks… and then I get into the third or fourth round and a guy like Rivers is sitting there and… and… I just can’t help myself. Better to find out now just how deep a hole I’ll be digging myself if I go quarterback early; maybe the lesson will sink in by September.

ROUND 4

Truth be told, none of the guys who went between Rivers and Parker interested me—at least in rounds three or four. Parker currently holds an ADP in the early sixth round, so I felt confident he’d be there after straying from the running back path in rounds two and three. I also thought about Addai or Jones here, then following with the Brown or Washington handcuff. However, the potential gutting of the Indy coaching staff has me concerned, and I still think there’s a chance Jones’ dissatisfaction with his contract turns into something more—like perhaps a golden opportunity for Shonn Greene.

ROUND 5

Aaron Rodgers would have been the quarterback I targeted if I didn’t go early for Rivers, so I can start gauging where he might go off the board. I would have strongly considered Holmes or Marshall here, but I ended up with Gonzalez. What about those Colts worries? Think about it; if the playcalling is left to Peyton Manning, he’ll be throwing plenty. And with no Marv, Gonzo is a clear-cut second option.

ROUND 6

Thought about Gates. Thought more about Gates. Really thought long and hard about Gates. Ultimately, I decided to stockpile backs and wait until very late to see how tight ends would shake out. In retrospect, if this were a team I was taking into the regular season this would be the pick I most regret. White showing up for minicamp looking like he didn’t spend the entire offseason at the buffet makes me feel a little better.

ROUND 7

That’s four backs in seven rounds—a classic quantity over quality play, but I like the upside of all four. Jones was a game-breaker before getting hurt, and sans TO I’m feeling the Cowboys might find a few more carries to divvy up between Jones and MB3. Jamal Lewis was also a consideration, seeing as the Browns still don’t have a clear heir to his throne. Looks like somebody is projecting Ray Rice to garner the bulk of the carries in Baltimore.

ROUND 8

I only had a couple backs on the board ahead of Mendenhall, so it felt like getting the handcuff was the prudent move. Interesting to note that the back half of the Jets’ handcuff also went in this round, while the Colts’ cuff went off the board last round. Cooley was pretty tempting here, but I’m holding firm on playing the waiting game with tight ends to let others set the bar.

ROUND 9

I have a pretty good feel for what most of the guys in this draft like to do, and I know most of them are inclined to wait on quarterbacks. But I don’t see getting Carson Palmer in the ninth round as something I should get used to. If so, I certainly won’t be taking Rivers in Round 3. After seeing Ray Rice go off the board in Round 7, the scramble is on for the remaining members of the committee that produced one of the NFL’s top rushing teams last year, then added Matt Birk and Michael Oher in the offseason. Sounds as if McClain is already griping about being moved back to fullback, so at present it’s a situation I’m more than happy to avoid.

ROUND 10

All that running back garnering has its price; I missed out on Donnie Avery by two picks and now have Torry Holt as my third receiver. What did we learn? Don’t wait this long to get a third receiver. I mean, I think David Garrard and the Jags bounce back a bit this year, but I’d feel a lot better not having to rely on Holt’s knees holding up and Jacksonville producing a viable passing game for the first time since Jimmy Smith retired.

ROUND 11

Carlson, Miller, and Keller were all tight ends I was targeting in this range, but clearly I’ve waited to long. Besides, at this juncture it’s splitting hairs on whether you want three, four, or five touchdowns from the position; better to take a shot on the rookie wideout who landed in the best situation, especially given how long I waited to pick a third WR.

ROUND 12

Gage carries a Round 16 ADP, but I think he projects out much better than that; he’s been the best receiver on my board for a couple rounds, so I’m okay taking him maybe a round or two early. Also, another tight end option goes off the board; I should probably think about addressing that position soon.

ROUND 13

The defenses were starting to fly off the board, and I know some of the guys I’m sitting on don’t require a pick here so I opted for one of my favorites this year. They already love to blitz, and when you add Maclin and Ellis Hobbs to the return game… I’m in.

ROUND 14

My plan for a pair of rookie tight ends was foiled when Pettigrew went three picks prior. I’m not sure why Nelson isn’t getting much love; he has a clear path to the starting gig, and Bills OC Turk Schoenert finally has a Rodney Holman-esque tight end that Trent Edwards is sure to grow fond of.

ROUND 15

Obviously you don’t love your tight ends when you wait 14 rounds to start drafting them; that said, Philly still runs a West Coast offense and pass-catching tight ends still factor into that scheme. It boils down to this: do I want to spend the sixth-rounder on Gates or attempt to cobble together 75% of Gates’ numbers from playing matchup poker with Nelson and Celek?

ROUND 16

System says take three quarterbacks, and of the ones left on the board Sanchez has the most upside.

ROUND 17

There are at least five kickers I’d still settle for, so I can take Collie here; call it Gonzo insurance or a longshot bet that he could put up Brandon Stokley-type numbers as the slot guy in Indy’s offense.

ROUND 18

It was Kaeding or David Akers, so I went for the guy with the better weather.

Final result, in a 12-team league:

QBs – Rivers, Palmer, Sanchez
RBs – S. Jackson, W. Parker, L. White, F. Jones, R. Mendenhall
WRs – A. Johnson, A. Gonzalez, Holt, Maclin, Gage, Collie
TEs – S. Nelson, Celek
K – Kaeding
D/ST – Eagles

Good running back depth, Deep at quarterback (maybe too deep?), more hopeful than set at wide receiver, and thin at tight end. Plenty of lessons to be learned… and plenty of times (and mocks) left to learn them.

COMMENTS (page 1 of 1)

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Greg in DE

Posted Jun 4, 2009 10:06am EDT

The 12 spot took Berrian at 36th pick overall. I think he has alot of upside, but I thought he should go closer to end of 4th early 5th. Obviously I'm by no means a professional, but what does everyone else think.

rmandhq

Posted May 19, 2009 9:27pm EDT

Thanks for sharing, 2V. It could be a year to wait on taking a #3 or #4 RB. IMO, guys like Maroney and J.Jones have intriguing value with potential upside if their ADP remains so low.

LOL

Posted May 18, 2009 10:57pm EDT

Mac Trio has commissioned his own league for 15 years...so listen to him!

2V

Posted May 18, 2009 10:57pm EDT

PSandy - Agreed on Jacobs. That's why I let him go, to find out if he really was falling to the third round. Turns out he wasn't. Same for not taking a TE early... and then, eventually, at all; rather than set the bar, I wanted to see where that bar might be set. In future mocks I'll probably do the same with Parker, as he appears to be going well below the 4th round. And with Rivers, though he felt like a bargain there as I get the sense the Chargers are transitioning to his team rather than LTs. That's the beauty of multiple mocks: plenty of chances to wipe the slate and see what Plan B might yield.

Studmunkee

Posted May 18, 2009 9:28am EDT

Jackson and Johnson were good picks but after that? I hate to say it boss but this team is a non-winner. I would have taken a second RB in this spot and there were still some excellent choices on board. The fourth round still would have given you a much better choice at RB than Parker. This would have been an excellent spot to snag an excellent WR or another good RB. This draft went downhill fast after the third pick. The scary part about this is that their are people out there who rely on the info that you guys feed them on this site. I can only hope that "THIS IS A DRILL...THIS IS ONLY A DRILL.'....lol

Mac Trio

Posted May 16, 2009 3:24am EDT

Thanks for the reading, but the results demand a response. I love the way it started up to round #3, then questions fly. You could have had Welker at #4 and had one or more RB's fall to you at #5 because of it. Many questions with Gonzales, though he's the best you could get here. You actually passed up Gates at #6? For LenDale? I can likely find a good therapist for you.. Just say the word and I'm on it! That's who I am, see? I'm always wiliing to help a friend in need. I love Palmer, Maclin, Gage & Phili 'D'. Somewhere along the way you really should have nailed a known quality TE. I've commissioned my own league for the last 15 years and this is how I see it. Exciting to read and appreciated. Saldly, it seems you were operating at about 50%. I'll give this draft a C+. Hey, you could have done a lot worse. This squad might get you through the door, but no way into the Big Dance. Thank you.

PSandy

Posted May 15, 2009 3:05pm EDT

Jacob's current ADP has to be an anomaly. It has to be. The final ADP rankings of 2008 had him going 35th overall . . . so far in 2009? He's going 26th. A decent rise to be sure, but nowhere near what it should be. He was a terror in 08 (and relatively healthy, too). Plus the team didn't back Ward. I don't see Jacobs as anything but a first round back and would have no problem pulling the trigger on him in after the top 5-6 RBs. Heck, I might even take him over some of those 2nd year guys who could fall victim to the sophomore slump.

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