FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Eight staff writers have all been polled who their sleepers, undervalued and overvalued players are. To make this within context of your draft, we have shown the selections against the average draft rankings and are highlighting when at least three writers have a consensus on a player.

There was surprisingly little consistency among staff members compared to previous seasons. This is the year of the big running back coin slip it appears.

Sleepers (Players drafted as a backup that have the potential to perform like a starter)

(3 stars)

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals - Strange to see positive vibes around Benson but his average draft position of #32 seems low to some since he will be a primary, fulltime running back. Granted - he is still a Bengal on a team that was one of the worst rushing teams in 2008, but he is finally at a place where fans and teammates actually like him and with minimal competition for his job.

James Davis, Cleveland Browns - Jamal Lewis is 30 years old and seemingly is walking on the edge of the cliff, ready to fall off at any moment.  Jerome Harrison is there to add third down duty but at 5’9” and 203, he’s not likely to hold up to being a primary back. Davis has the size (5’11” and 212 pounds) to perform the job and more importantly has looked the part in training camp so far. He’s a long shot, but with Lewis aging – he may not be that big of a surprise.

(2 stars)

Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, Ray Rice, Lendale White, Rashard Mendenhall, LeSean McCoy, Julius Jones, Leon Washington and Tashard Choice.

Undervalued (Players drafted as a starter but a great value where available)

(6 stars)

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers - You never hear much about him and he was a disappointment in 2008 when expectations were far higher, but most the staff members liked Grant to easily outperform his #19 Average Draft Position. The Packers proved they could still mount a passing game with Aaron Rodgers last year and now the rushing game should be more successful.

(3 stars)

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers - This is a first for the certain Hall of Famer but his drop to #7 ADP is just too far for several staff members who see him still capable to crank out at least one more high level season. Tomlinson was also considered overvalued by two staffers so there's hardly any con census that he's sure to return to his highly productive yesteryears.

Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints - Deuce McAllister is gone and only Thomas is left in his place. The undrafted third-year player took the reins later last season and scored at least once in each of the final six games including taking over the role as a receiver since Reggie Bush was injured. Bush is still not 100% and never lasts, and Thomas remains the starter on a team with a dominating passing game to respect.

(2 stars)

Clinton Portis, Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno and Joseph Addai.

Overvalued (Players that are poor values where being drafted, if not outright busts)

(5 stars)

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears - His lofty #3 ADP is considered too high by most staffers a bit more concerned with his 3.9 yards per rush average and the fact that there was no one to share carries with last year but now Kevin Jones is healthy and knows the playbook and is expected to decrease the workload of Forte. Even the Bears coaches have expressed a desire to use Jones more for receiving while focusing Forte more on rushing. It was Forte's NFL-leading 63 receptions by a running back last year that really propped up his value in reception point leagues.

(3 stars)

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers - The biggest surprise of 2008 is expected to experience a downturn this season with Jonathan Stewart there to share the workload and the fact that the Panthers are going from one of the easiest schedules last year to one of the worst ones for 2009. Where Williams is drafted will say a lot about your league.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints - The usually electric Bush is now considered more likely to have a year worst than his #16 ADP thanks to the emergence of Pierre Thomas and the reality that Bush does not have the reliability to reach the next level. He just gets injured too much.

Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills - Lynch being drafted as the #21 running back is much too high for three staff members who are scared off because of the presence of Fred Jackson who shared carries with him last year and the three game suspension that Lynch has to start the season.

Darren Sproles, San Diego Chargers - Sproles is overvalued so long as you buy into LaDainian Tomlinson remaining healthy and turning in a decent season. Sproles was a dynamic runner in some games as Tomlinson's replacement but the diminutive tailback should revert to his primary role on special teams.

(2 stars)

Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marion Barber and Jonathan Stewart.

Under Valued or Sleeper	Over Valued	ADP Rankings as of 8/3		DMD	2V	DT	KR	PS	TVP	SG	SB
		1	Peterson,Adrian
		2	Jones-Drew,Maurice							O
		3	Forte,Matt	O	O			O		O	O
		4	Turner,Michael				O
		5	Jackson,Steven			U	O				O
		6	Johnson,Chris							O	O
		7	Tomlinson,LaDainian	U			O		O	U	U
		8	Williams,DeAngelo	O			O				O
		9	Gore,Frank					O
		10	Slaton,Steve					U		O
		11	Westbrook,Brian						O
		12	Barber,Marion					O			O
		13	Portis,Clinton							U	U
		14	Jacobs,Brandon		U
		15	Brown,Ronnie
		16	Bush,Reggie	O	O	U			O	U
		17	Smith,Kevin						U
		18	Thomas,Pierre	U		O	U	U
		19	Grant,Ryan	U	U	U	U	U	U
		20	McFadden,Darren						U
		21	Lynch,Marshawn		O		O		O
		22	Moreno,Knowshon		U		U			O
		23	Addai,Joseph			U					U
		24	Ward,Derrick	O
		25	Jones,Thomas						O
		26	Stewart,Jonathan	O				O
		27	Johnson,Larry			S				S
		28	Wells,Chris					S
		29	Parker,Willie			S					S
		30	Jones,Felix					S
		31	Rice,Ray		S	O				S
		32	Benson,Cedric	S					S		S
		33	Brown,Donald			O
		34	White,LenDale				S			S
		35	Sproles,Darren	O	O	O
		36	Mendenhall,Rashard				S			S
		37	Lewis,Jamal		S
		38	McCoy,LeSean	S					S
		39	Jones,Julius	S			S
		40	Washington,Leon				S		S
		41	Jackson,Fred		O
		42	Bradshaw,Ahmad		S
		43	Hightower,Tim								S
		44	Greene,Shonn
		45	Taylor,Chester
		46	McGahee,Willis			S
		47	Norwood,Jerious			O
		48	Graham,Earnest
		49	McClain,Le'Ron
		50	Charles,Jamaal
		51	Bush,Michael
		52	Taylor,Fred					S
		53	Maroney,Laurence			S
		54	Williams,Ricky
		55	Choice,Tashard	S						S
		56	Faulk,Kevin
		57	Harrison,Jerome
		58	Scott,Bernard
		59	Buckhalter,Correll
		60	Jackson,Brandon
		61	Davis,James	S		S	S
		62	Morris,Sammy		S
		63	Coffee,Glen
		64	Jennings,Rashad	S
		65	Betts,Ladell
		66	Fargas,Justin							S
		67	Johnson,Gartrell
		68	Jones,Kevin
		69	Moore,Mewelde						S
		70	Rhodes,Dominic
		71	Hillis,Peyton
		72	Jordan,Lamont
		73	Brown,Chris
		74	Morris,Maurice						S
		75	Ringer,Javon
		76	Jones,Greg
		77	James,Edgerrin

COMMENTS (page 1 of 2)

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mike

Posted Aug 24, 2009 12:42am EDT

I just paid $25 for your site, I draft tomorrow, and you have articles that haven't been updated since August 6th?? That is B.S.

Jeff

Posted Aug 23, 2009 2:44pm EDT

Frank, point well taken. Just have a hunch he won't reach the endzone as much between Rogers QB sneeks and expecting Brandon Jackson playing a bigger role. I hope I'm wrong though.

Frank Cal

Posted Aug 18, 2009 9:35am EDT

Jeff, How can you say that the Packers are not a run first team and Ryan Grant will not get enough opportunities to be good? He was one of five RBs to get over 300 carries last year. And when it gets cold (playoff time in fantasy football) you have to be able to run the ball in the NFC North.

Michael Turner - 376
Adrian Peterson - 363
Clinton Portis - 342
Matt Forte - 316
Ryan Grant - 312

DMD

Posted Aug 13, 2009 1:06pm EDT

While I agree with you personally, there are several writers who think LT is a risk that early because of his age and injury from last year. While perhaps you and I think that is overblown, it is indicative of the large variation out there of what people think of LT.

MoneyD

Posted Aug 13, 2009 12:22pm EDT

How are you gonna have LT on both the overvalued, and undervalued lists? Please tell me how one of the premiere RBs in the league could ever be overvalued?

Jeff

Posted Aug 12, 2009 6:09pm EDT

Don't agree with all the upside marks for Ryan Grant, which I hate to say since I'm a big Packer fan. He's a tough capable back but the Packers are not a run first team and Grant isn't featured in the passing game and not that much in goalline situations either. Aaron Rogers had as many rushing TD's as Grant last year. Plus the O line looks like a question mark this season. His ADP looks about right.

Jeff

Posted Aug 12, 2009 1:40pm EDT

Good call on Deangelo Wlliams. He is going to drafted way to high. He may be worthy to draft as a starter, but a healthy Jonathan Stewart is definately going to cut into his numbers

tazinib1

Posted Aug 8, 2009 11:01am EDT

Shame on the lot of you for over-valuing J.Stewart. SHAME!!!

Sam

Posted Aug 7, 2009 11:23am EDT

Benson . . . . he used to dance around and have poor technique and he's not ultra fast. However, i find his running instincts have improved much going upfield and he's basically got all the carries on a team that has a good passing game now (Palmer- Ocho/Coles/Henry). He is also a bruising power back ,for the goal line too. I'll take him around the RB 20 position or wait until he falls in my lap as my RB2 while i steal other great players in my draft.

Chicagobob466

Posted Aug 6, 2009 9:26pm EDT

Tomlinson is of even value at around the 7 spot. I wouldn'y take him higher.

Chad

Posted Aug 6, 2009 5:26pm EDT

Bensen is over valued if you have him being selected before the 7th round. How does this guy keep getting props.

SMW

Posted Aug 6, 2009 3:55pm EDT

Bush & LT are both over and under valued. Thats all you need to know. Buyer beware unless its much later than you woould have expected! Cant believe how low Benson and LJ are here!!!

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