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Mock drafts are speculation about speculation, based around reams and reams of misinformation disseminated by both teams and players. And yet they’re still fun - fun to conduct, fun to read - because they represent the new hopes of our team of choice as well as the blossoming of a new football season.
Thus far I’ve attempted to straddle the line between what teams might do based on myriad factors (published reports, rumors, team needs, past history, etc. etc.) and what I believe that team should do to improve itself. In this, the final week before the real NFL draft, I’m straddling no longer: in Mock Draft 5A, I’m putting on the GM hat for each of the 32 first-round picks; in Mock Draft 5B, I’ll set aside whatever personal biases I may have been bringing to the table, cut through the smokescreens, and give you my best educated guess as to what each club will do.
* Note that this mock draft includes hypothetical trades between the Jets and Broncos and between the Falcons and Ravens - both of which follow the general guidelines of the NFL draft pick value chart.
NFL Mock Draft - Version 4.0 | NFL Mock Draft - Version 3.0 | NFL Mock Draft - Version 2.0 | NFL Mock Draft - Version 1.0
1. Detroit Lions — Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia
Mock 4.0: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor; Mock 3.0: Smith; Mock 2.0: Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest; Mock 1.0: Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia
This pick could very well change if, as the real Lions GM, I’d have had the chance to meet Matt Stafford; it’s conceivable he could have convinced me that he’s a franchise quarterback. Lacking that, however, I look at the 50/50 odds of first-round quarterbacks panning out, the negative multiplier to those odds based on past performance by early-entry quarterbacks, and the very real possibility that Detroit will have a shot at Colt McCoy or Sam Bradford in next year’s draft. The Lions won’t be rebuilt overnight, and my conservative nature suggests that another David Carr- or Tim Couch-like debacle would set this franchise back another five to 10 years. As for Monroe over Jason Smith, I understand that Smith has the higher ceiling but I prefer the track record of Virginia linemen and the probability that with this pick I’m anchoring my line for the next decade. Plus, there’s the possibility Josh Freeman falls into my lap at #20, or I trade up with that 02.01 or 03.01.
2. St. Louis Rams — Jason Smith, OT, Baylor
Mock 4.0: Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia; Mock 3.0: Monroe; Mock 2.0: Monroe; Mock 1.0: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama
As Rams’ GM I’m more than happy to settle for whichever tackle falls here to replace Orlando Pace and pave the way for Stephen Jackson, the centerpiece of my offense. I can let my defensive-minded new coach work on his side of the ball with the next two or three picks.
3. Kansas City Chiefs — Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest
Mock 4.0: Curry; Mock 3.0: Curry; Mock 2.0: Everette Brown, DE/OLB, Florida State; Mock 1.0: Brown
I still believe Curry is the best player in this draft, and while Everette Brown might be the better pass rusher I want to introduce Curry to Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas now, then plug him into my 3-4 defense for the next six to 12 years. I’m also hoping Tamba Hali can get back to giving us some of the pass rush he provided in 2007—as well as crossing my fingers that a guy like Cody Brown might still be available when we’re back on the clock in Round Three.
4. Seattle Seahawks — Mark Sanchez, QB, USC
Mock 4.0: Sanchez; Mock 3.0: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College; Mock 2.0: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor; Mock 1.0: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech
As Seattle GM I’m crushed that the two elite OTs are off the board here; I had my heart set on Walter Jones’ heir. If I can’t deal this pick down to an overpaying Danny Snyder or whomever else is all about Sanchez, I take him myself. After all, Matt Hasselbeck is 33 and has a bad back and an aging left tackle.
 5. Cleveland Browns — Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State
Mock 4.0: Brian Orakpo, DE/OLB, Texas; Mock 3.0: Orakpo; Mock 2.0: Orakpo; Mock 1.0: Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest
Let’s assume I haven’t been able to trade Braylon Edwards, because if I have then this pick is Michael Crabtree and I should have another first-rounder with which to move back up the board and get Wells (if it’s the Giants’ pick, according to the NFL draft-pick value chart I can package it with my 02.06 to move back in front of the Saints). Instead, I keep Edwards and get a playmaker in the running game—a young Jamal Lewis—to operate behind a pretty decent offensive line. Then I find a way to turn those two second-rounders into edge rushers—Larry English, Connor Barwin, Cody Brown, or a package of the two which (according to the value chart) would get me back into the 18 range.
6. Cincinnati Bengals — Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas
Mock 4.0: Andre Smith, OT, Alabama; Mock 3.0: Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi; Mock 2.0: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College; Mock 1.0: Oher
I’m an offensive line guy, so why not Smith or Oher here? I think the Bengals will be just fine with Andrew Whitworth and Anthony Collins at the tackles, and they can address the interior of their offensive line with Alex Mack, Max Unger, or Eric Wood in Round Two and Andy Levitre, Antoine Caldwell, or Kraig Urbik in Round Three. An elite pass rusher won’t be on the board at that point, and the Bengals need to apply some pressure from the outside.
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