FANTASY FOOTBALL DRAFT KIT

(-Risk) Hard to believe that Bulger is only three years removed from having 4301 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. The Rams have finally hit the other end of the spectrum from the greatest show on turf with the addition of OC Pat Shurmur who will introduce the West Coast offense to St. Louis. Short passing, dink and dunk. Pretty much everything that the Rams were not a short while ago. Bulger remains the quarterback if only because the Rams would lose $8 million if they traded him away and $11 million if they released him. Shurmur said he was impressed with Bulger in minicamp but what else was he going to say? Bulger has never played in a West Coast offense and it doesn’t play to his strengths. For one, he will be asked to be more mobile and that seems more a ticket to getting injured yet again.

Ironically, the Rams have one of the easiest passing schedules in the entire NFL this year. What they do not have are any experienced receivers. None have NFL or West Coast experience. Bulger is a gamer but it seems the deck is stacked against him. Bulger has also only played a full 16 game season once in the last five years. Bulger has to be considered in a whole new light this season and it’s not flattering.

(-Risk) Leftwich is on to his fourth NFL team in the last four years but there is a chance that he may gain the starting job – which was never going to happen in Atlanta or Pittsburgh. Leftwich will compete with Luke McCown and Brian Griese to be the starting quarterback while knowing that even that is merely temporary until rookie Josh Freeman is ready to step in. Expect that the Buccaneers will start at least two quarterbacks this year and possibly three or four. No reason to get involved with this situation if you can avoid it.

08-28-09 Update: Leftwich appears to have won the starting job for the Bucs in week one but hardly any guarantee he will have it every week this season.

The Vikings traded a fourth-round pick for Rosenfels in the offseason, and he represents an upgrade over what the purple got out of the quarterback position last year. Specifically, Sage’s 62.5 career completion percentage—65.6% over the past three years and 66.7% last year—is an improvement over the sub-60% efforts of Gus Frerotte and Tarvaris Jackson in 2008. That accuracy should come in handy in Minnesota’s version of the West Coast offense. Better still, Rosenfels won’t be put in the position of being asked to win games; we saw last year against Indy how that might play out.

Of course, Rosenfels also won’t be asked to put up gaudy, fantasy-friendly numbers in the Vikings’ run-first offense. In the Brad Childress error era, the Vikings have ranked 27th, 29th, and peaked last year at 20th in fantasy production from the quarterback position. Rosenfels isn’t likely to provide the same passing-game boost a certain former Packer might, but by simply improving the number of passes completed will help. And if Percy Harvin opens the field as Minnesota hopes, with Bernard Berian stretching it while Visanthe Shiancoe works the middle, Rosenfels offers mild upside as a bye-week plug in play—especially with three pass-friendly matchups (@CLE, @DET, SF) to start the season and only one bad matchup (@PIT in Week 7). Of course, he needs to win the training camp “competition” with Jackson first, then hope that Brett Favre spends the fall in Kiln, Mississippi instead of the Metrodome.

08-19-09 Update: What could have been a nice season now has to wait for Brett Favre to get injured. That makes Rosenfels undraftable in all but big leagues for the Favre owner.

(-Risk) (+Upside) The Eagles decided to become "it" by signing Vick to a one-year contract worth $1.6 million with an option for a second year for $5.2 million. This is Vick's chance to rebuild his career in a place that probably won't take kindly to protesters. Vick is brought on to compete to be the backup quarterback since Kevin Kolb currently is nursing a knee injury. Until more is known, expect Vick nothing more than a backup with a chance for some work in a wildcat formation. This is mostly his chance to get back in the league and see what next year brings.

The Dolphins drafted White with their 2.12 pick on a player that is a superior athlete. But what he would be considered in the NFL had most figuring him for a wide receiver instead of the quarterback he played at West Virginia. In college, he was a true double-threat, completing 65.7 percent of his passes for 1,842 yards and 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions as a senior with 1,109 rushing yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. For his career, White completed 64.8 percent of his passes and threw for 6,049 yards, with 56 touchdowns and 23 interceptions. He also rushed for 4,842 yards (posting four 1,000-yard seasons) and 47 touchdowns after taking over as the Mountaineers’ starter midway through his freshman campaign. White’s problem in the NFL is that he is only 6-0 and 197 pounds – much shorter and particularly lighter than what typically succeeds. When he was drafted, Tony Sparano said that he took him to be a quarterback and potentially add a new facet to the offense that already had the Wildcat formation ripple throughout the NFL. He should be more than just a gimmick but in the offseason but he was very inaccurate passing in minicamps while Chad Henne is gaining on the #2 spot and is now considered the likely quarterback of the future. That leaves White as either a player without a true position or someone who will end up mostly as a gimmick feature.

Boller has a big arm but has been dinged for decision making and accuracy – both of which are hallmarks of the West Coast offense. Boller has some marginal value this year playing behind the occasionally brittle Marc Bulger.

Daunte joined the Lions in the middle of last season rusty and out of shape, but at least he remembered how to throw the deep ball to an athletic receiver. Heading into 2009 Culpepper is in better shape and could actually provide the Lions the service of allowing them to follow the Carson Palmer plan with rookie Matthew Stafford—sit him for a year rather than throw him to the wolves a la David Carr or Tim Couch. Of course, the Lions have $41.7 million reasons to go with the kid over Culpepper so he’s certainly not a must-have. But keep this in mind: last year, despite the 16 losses and a clown car full of quarterback candidates the Lions QB position produced more fantasy points than, among others, Atlanta (Matt Ryan) and Baltimore (Joe Flacco).

Should Daunte get the nod he’ll need to step up his accuracy, which dipped to a career-low 52% last year and hasn’t been above 60% since his days in Minnesota. Then again, he’s demonstrated competence, if not mastery, of the key fantasy component of the Detroit offense: getting the ball to Calvin Johnson.

09-04-09 Update: Stafford has won the starting job and Culpepper becomes just a footnote to Stafford's career.

The Buccaneers grabbed their quarterback of the future with their 1.17 pick but the Kansas State star may not see much playing time this year, at least not in the early stages of the season. Freeman threw for 2,945 yards and 20 touchdowns against eight interceptions in his third and final year at KSU. He also carried 107 times for 538 yards and 14 touchdowns. For his career Freeman completed 59.1 percent of his passes, amassing 8,078 yards and 44 touchdowns against 34 interceptions. He also rushed for 825 yards and 20 touchdowns in his Wildcat career.

Physically, Freeman has just about everything the NFL looks for in its prototypical quarterback. Not only does he have the size to stand tall in the pocket and shrug off tacklers while looking downfield, he has the arm strength to deliver the ball anywhere on the field and the athleticism to take off and run if the pocket breaks down. The Buccaneers won’t be in a rush to stick him into the lineup and Freeman would benefit greatly from a full year of absorbing the game from the sideline. That all said, he is a first round pick and will likely get some playing time if only in late season cameo appearances. He carries no fantasy value for this season but in a dynasty league, he should be the third rookie quarterback take just like in the NFL draft. Freeman plops down into a west coast attack that is intended to be “rush heavy”.

09-06-09 Update: The Buccaneers traded off Luke McCown and left Freeman as the #2 in Tampa Bay. With only Leftwich ahead of him, Freeman may get playing time this season to prepare for him taking over in 2010.

Anderson is only worth owning in a huge league where you want to backup Brady Quinn. The Browns have a below average schedule this year and the receivers are all inexperienced or incapable of catching most passes. Even if Quinn is injured – and he gets hurt – Anderson still is unlikely to merit fantasy attention.

Clemens took over as starter in 2007 for seven games but had very marginal success with 1529 passing yards, five scores and ten interceptions. Last year he was replaced by old man Favre. This year it will be the youngster Sanchez. The best that Clemens can hope for is that the Jets make Mark Sanchez sit on the bench for a while. No upside here and maybe no stats either.

The new coaching staff has brought in their own guy in Matt Cassel but Thigpen should play #2 behind the guy who was sacked the most in the NFL last year. Thigpen could end up coming in midseason once again.

While Matt Schaub remains firmly entrenched as the starter in Houston, he’s been fragile enough to miss five games each season. This is a powerful passing offense that Orlovsky can at least help replace Schaub until he is healthy again. Orlovsky is not worth stealing in a draft but if you own Schaub as your starter in a big league, give Orlovsky a strong consideration.

It has been a rather profitable three year career in the NFL for Leinart even if it has only included one career passing touchdown and only five passing attempts last year. But Kurt Warner brought the Cardinals to the Super Bowl so there is no pretense that Leinart is anything more than a misguided first round draft pick that may not see the field at all this year. He is a worthy backup for Warner owners if only because of those fantasy playoff games of @SF, @DET and STL.

Smith hasn’t played since week 10 of 2007 thanks to shoulder injuries but he’s back to compete with Shaun Hill for the starting job. Expect Hill to win the job and Smith to likely back him up.

08-25-09 Update: The 49ers have named Hill as the starting quarterback for week one but Alex Smith likely won't challange him again.

Kitna makes a great back-up for the Cowboys after they discovered that Brad Johnson was better in theory than in actual game play. Kitna makes for a reasonable back-up should Romo become injured again but the Cowboys are not slated to throw as much this year and are without Terrell Owens anyway. Not much sense in bothering with Kitna unless you are in a 32 team league and own Romo.

Flynn will busy himself battling Brian Brohm for the right to hold a clipboard this fall. Seeing as Aaron Rodgers followed in his Packer QB predecessor’s footsteps by playing through injury (in Rodgers’ case, a dislocated shoulder) last year, there’s no reason to associate anything other than handcuff value to Flynn.

Kolb may have no value this year – he didn’t in 2008. But McNabb has never played more than one full healthy season in a row and he lasted all 16 last year. McNabb owners in bigger leagues should insure their quarterback just to be sure.

Smith should manage to hold off John Beck to remain the primary backup but the young Flacco has very durable and the offense isn’t productive enough to offer fantasy value by plugging in a back-up quarterback.