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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Game Predictions Summary

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The Huddle
WEEK 3
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Monday
Sunday Late
*updated

Prediction: KC 10, PHI 31

Saturday Update: Dwayne Bowe was limited in practice the last two days and is considered questionable to play. He tweaked his leg in practice on Thursday and is a game time decision.

McNabb remains doubtful and isn't expected to play. Brian Westbrook remains questionable despite missing all practices this week. I am going to leave the projections alone which show a split between he and LeSean McCoy. If Westbrook plays, he's likely to not finish the game particularly if it gets out of hand as expected. Unfortunately, that throws risk on relying on either Westbrook or McCoy. Be aware and if Westy is held out at game time, then McCoy makes a nice start.

Kevin Curtis is doubtful and is not a safe start - I am removing him from the projections.

Friday Update: Donovan McNabb has not practiced is not likely to play. Brian Westbrook has not practiced but cannot yet be ruled out. He will no doubt be a game time decision and has played with a minimal amount of practice in several games for the last couple of seasons. DeSean Jackson has been held out of practice because of his groin issue but he had it coming into last week and still played. No need to change any of the projections so far.

This is a game that looks like a mismatch. The 0-2 Chiefs come in to face the Eagles who thought they were really good this year until Drew Brees showed and and corrected them. Chances that the Chiefs can mimic the Saints? 0%.

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @BAL 24-38 +12.5 36
2 OAK 10-13 -4 41
3 @PHI - +9.5 42.5
4 NYG - - -
5 DAL - - -
6 @WAS - - -
7 SD - - -
8 BYE - - -
9 @JAC - - -
10 @OAK - - -
11 PIT - - -
12 @SD - - -
13 DEN - - -
14 BUF - - -
15 CLE - - -
16 @CIN - - -
17 @DEN - - -
KC at PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel     230,1
RB Larry Johnson 50 20  
TE Sean Ryan   10  
WR Dwayne Bowe   50  
WR Bobby Engram   40  
WR Bobby Wade   50,1  
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The loss in Baltimore looked like at least a moral victory when the new offense scored 24 points against the Ravens. But losing to the visiting Raiders was a major hit to the confidence because they were divisional rivals and because they were probably the best shot at a win maybe the entire year. With a run through all four NFC East teams next, the rebuild remains in first gear.

Quarterback: Matt Cassel missed the first game because of his sprained MCL but started against Oakland with mixed results. He had 241 passing yards and a score but tossed two interceptions and was sacked twice. He was unable to move the team when it had to happen. His knee is still not completely healed but he didn't seem bothered by it in the game.

This week he goes against a team that has seven sacks and six interceptions on the season. While Drew Brees carved this defense up it was a surprise and Jake Delhomme was humble - nay, humiliated - by the Eagles a week prior. Safe to expect Cassel to be more like Delhomme than Brees. Look for moderate yardage at best and no more than one touchdown which even then would come in trash time.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson had a great chance for a meaningful game last week but only managed to gain 78 yards on 24 carries against the Raiders. That officially puts him at 35 runs for 98 yards and a 2.8 yard per carry average. The question is mainly why is he still out there?

The Chiefs in their odd discipline/strategery ways opted to make Jamaal Charles inactive last week and instead use Dantrell Savage as their third down back. Savage had 43 yards on six receptions and 26 yards on three runs. Until this is sorted out, the assumption is that Johnson remains the only player here with an reliably consistency. Charles himself was surprised by the move and was never informed why.

That's all highly unlikely to matter this week against the Eagles. Expect minimal rushing yards. The third down back could have marginal PPR value but there is no certainty who that will be this week.

Wide Receivers: Dwayne Bowe has managed to catch a score each week and is the only wideout with a touchdown so far. But he has been limited to only 56 yards at most. Mark Bradley started the game but was yanked for newly acquired Bobby Wade who had 72 yards on six receptions. Until the situation becomes clearer and more permanent, the assumption is that Wade has replaced Bradley for now.

None of these players are attractive starts this week even though Bowe has managed to score in each game. For those wanting Bowe, consider Steve Smith gaining just 24 yards against the Eagles.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value beyond one catch per week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 18 24 14 26 27 29
Preventing Fantasy Points    PHI 14 29 18 6 22 31


Philadelphia Eagles (1-1))
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @CAR 38-10 -2.5 43.5
2 NO 22-48 -3 46.5
3 KC - -9.5 42.5
4 BYE - - -
5 TB - - -
6 @OAK - - -
7 @WAS - - -
8 NYG - - -
9 DAL - - -
10 @SD - - -
11 @CHI - - -
12 WAS - - -
13 @ATL - - -
14 @NYG - - -
15 SF - - -
16 DEN - - -
17 @DAL - - -
PHI vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Kevin Kolb     220,1
QB Michael Vick 40,1   20
RB Brian Westbrook 50 10  
RB LeSean McCoy 50,1 40  
TE Brent Celek   20,1  
WR DeSean Jackson   70  
WR Kevin Curtis 40
WR Jeremy Maclin   20  
PK David Akers 1 FG 4 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Eagles were taken by surprise with the ease that Drew Brees had carving up the secondary. But it was a game without McNabb and where Brian Westbrook was injured and once it went bad, it just started running. With a bye waiting on the other side, this game is a must win and certainly a "should win". With McNabb and Westbrook nursing injuries, reaching the bye week 2-1 has to be acceptable.

I like the chance for a defensive score in this game.

Quarterback: This should be interesting. You have Donovan McNabb with a fractured rib who will make overtures about playing but in the end - come back in week five when you are rested. There is Kevin Kolb who passed for 391 yards and one score but three interceptions last week. And if only to appease the announcers who will go on and on and on about it - Michael Vick is off suspension and ready to actually play in the NFL again.

Now the Eagles went with the Wildcat formation nine times last week and maybe nothing screams "Vick" like the wildcat formation (that and some teenaged PETA chicks covered in cat hair).

So - the current expectation is that McNabb sits, Kolb starts and Vick plays at least some. It will be worth watching but in case you miss it, be sure every single sports highlight show will feature it regardless what happens.

This is the Chiefs defense that let Joe Flacco pass for 307 yards and three scores. But you cannot rely on anything near that this week.

Running Backs: Brian Westbrook is day-to-day with a right ankle sprain and that's a horrible situation this week. Westbrook likely won't practice to rest it but could play. Then again, at what point should he not play if the game gets too big on the scoreboard? Why subject him to more injury? Why not let LeSean McCoy be the starter or take over at halftime?

The expectation is that McCoy get more than the ten touches of last week. The Chiefs have already allowed three rushing scores so that will end up with McCoy or Westbrook. I am going to project for a split of duties between the two runners but almost anything could happen this week. Westbrook is not a safe start and yet could have a big game. McCoy has at least a decent showing.

Wide Receivers: DeSean Jackson suffered a groin pull last week and will be limited in practice. He is considered day-to-day and I will project for a mostly healthy Jackson and update as warranted. Jackson enjoyed a big 101 yard, one touchdown effort against the Saints. even Jason Avant had 79 yards and a score though both receivers had just a single catch in the Carolina game.

The Chiefs secondary was horrible against the Ravens but the Eagles will throw less. Look for marginally productive games from the wideouts and a risk that any of them could have a bad game since the team can win without them anyway.

Tight Ends: Brent Celek is enjoying a nice start to the season with a score in week one and a team high eight catches for 104 yards against the Saints. I am going to credit Celek with a passing score but it could end up anywhere.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 2 20 9 10 9 1
Preventing Fantasy Points    KC 12 30 10 14 20 11

The Huddle
WEEK 3
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Monday
Sunday Late
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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