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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 3
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Monday
Sunday Late
*updated

Prediction: TEN 10, NYJ 20

Saturday Update: Rob Bironas was held out of practice to rest his ankle but is stil likely to play as the Titans have not signed another kicker.

It was no surprise that this game would feature an undefeated team and a team with no wins. We just got the identities switched. The Titans have stumbled to 0-2 after two close losses and now head back on the road to play against the newest Uber-Defense in the NFL of the Jets. This just does not look like a high scoring game which means one mistake can make the difference.

The Jets won 34-13 in Tennessee last year.

Tennessee Titans (0-2)
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @PIT 10-13 +5 37
2 HOU 31-34 -7 40.5
3 @NYJ - +2.5 37
4 @JAC - - -
5 IND - - -
6 @NE - - -
7 BYE - - -
8 JAC - - -
9 @SF - - -
10 BUF - - -
11 @HOU - - -
12 ARI - - -
13 @IND - - -
14 STL - - -
15 MIA - - -
16 SD - - -
17 @SEA - - -
TEN at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins     170,1
RB Chris Johnson 60 30  
RB LenDale White 20    
TE Alge Crumpler   30,1  
WR Justin Gage   20  
WR Nate Washington   40  
WR Kenny Britt   30  
PK Rob Bironas 1 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: It ends up close doesn't count. It doesn't even feel that great. The Titans are stumbling out of the gate but not by a big margin - for the want of a field goal in both games the Titans may be 2-0. What has been the biggest surprise is that the pass rush has declined since last year. The secondary suddenly has become a sieve and the Titans currently have allowed the most passing yardage of any team. Matt Schaub went from being humbled by these same Jets to looking like the top quarterback in the league when he faced the Titans. For a team that has had a good defense for many years, this is hard to accept. Less so for opposing offenses though.

Quarterback: Kerry Collins has played well enough with never more than one interception per game and around 220 yards and a score each week. The problem is that he's less adept at making the fast comeback in part because of the offensive scheme. He's a perfect fit for when the rushing game takes off and the defense keeps the opponent at bay but this offense is not built for moving quickly through the air and now two losses could not be avoided. If the secondary plans to let every game turn into a shootout, Collins is going to have to change.

Collins passed for 243 yards and one score against the visiting Jets last season.

Problem this week is that the Jets still have not allowed an offensive touchdown. The rushing defense has shut down the running lanes completely and yet the aggressive rush and secondary play has prevented either Matt Schaub or Tom Brady to do more than 216 passing yards so far. Stay away from Collins this week.

Running Backs: Sadly it came in a loss but Chris Johnson had a career best game when he rolled up 197 yards on just 16 rushes with two touchdowns and nine catches for 87 yards and a third score. It was the sort of fantasy week that will endear him to fantasy owners forever. 284 yards and three scores! Nine receptions. Cha-ching.

It was far superior to the previous game in Pittsburgh when he only had 57 yards on 15 carries. But Johnson gained only 46 yards on ten carries against the Jets last year with three receptions for 15 more yards.

During the monster showing by Johnson, Lendale White only had 25 rushing yards and so far has been nearly invisible in this offense because they have not needed a short yardage score yet. White only had one carry for a one yards loss in Jets game of 2008.

Time to put Johnson back on the shelf if you have better options. The schedule maker has done him no favors with a trip to New York to face the Jets who have not allowed any scores and no runner has managed more than 46 rushing yards. White has no value this week and Johnson will need to add in receptions to salvage any fantasy points. This has suddenly become a very bad matchup.

Wide Receivers: The decent showing by the wideouts in Pittsburgh went away against the Texans but mostly because everyone was watching Chris Johnson take over the game. Nate Washington had his first score as a Titan but no receiver had more than 36 yards in that game. So far it has been a case of two very different games this year though both ended in close losses. This week should help determine just how good the Titans passing game is because the Jets should manage to contain Johnson.

No Titans wideout had more than 43 yards versus the Jets in 2008. There is no attractive fantasy play in these receivers this week. They just held Randy Moss to 24 yards.

Tight Ends: Alge Crumpler stepped up last week with Bo Scaife out nursing a sprained knee. His four receptions for 44 yards were among the best for the team and kept the chains moving when needed. No doubt that he will figure again this week with a voracious pass rush likely to make Collins interested in the closest receiver.

Scaife caught three passes for 40 yards versus the Jets last year.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 19 5 17 24 22 18
Preventing Fantasy Points    NYJ 3 2 7 4 8 3


New York Jets (2-0)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN - -2.5 37
4 @NO - - -
5 @MIA - - -
6 BUF - - -
7 @OAK - - -
8 MIA - - -
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC - - -
11 @NE - - -
12 CAR - - -
13 @BUF - - -
14 @TB - - -
15 ATL - - -
16 @IND - - -
17 CIN - - -
NYJ vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez     270,2
RB Thomas Jones 50    
RB Leon Washington 40 20  
TE Dustin Keller   60  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   110,1  
WR Chansi Stuckey   60,1  
PK Jay Feely 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: It's a brand new world for the Jets. At least for the last two games, there has been no defense that has stifled their opponent like the Jets have. No offensive touchdowns allowed yet after playing in Houston and against the Patriots. This defense won't hold the same devastating effect once offenses see enough of it to figure a way around but until then the Jets are just murdering the fantasy value of every player that faces that defense. Week four in New Orleans will be fascinating. Maybe sad.

The Jets kist ended the Patriot's eight game winning streak over then in Giants Stadium.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez was a bit more rookie-like when he passed for just 163 yards and one score against the Patriots but he had no turnovers and still played a solid game. The Patriots gave him his first two sacks of the year but Sanchez continues to play with amazing poise.

Favre passed for 224 yards and two scores when the Jets visited Tennessee last year.

Sanchez is a very interesting play this week since the Titans have allowed no less than 350 passing yards in each game. The Jets defense will slow down the pace and speed up the clock so Sanchez is not likely to pass for nearly that many yards, but he's curiously attractive start this week. Expect good yardage and at least one score but if he had a big game, he would just be doing what the two first opponents did to the Titans.

Running Backs: After a big opening in Houston, Thomas Jones only managed 54 yards on 14 carries against the Pats last week. Leon Washington continues to take roughly half the carries and adding in his two to four catches per week gives him at least some marginal fantasy value so far. Shonn Greene was active for the first time but never played.

Jones rushed for 96 yards on 27 carries while Washington added 82 yards on only eight runs and scored twice in Tennessee last year.

The Titans rushing defense has been outstanding this year even while their secondary has fallen apart. So far the best runner was Steve Slaton with only 34 rushing yards. Expect a lower effort here from the Jets with Jones and Washington really hurting each other's fantasy value this week.

Wide Receivers: Sanchez has been effective connecting with Jerricho Cotchery so far with about five catches for around 90 yards in both games this year. Chansi Stuckey remains in the gameplan with four catches in each week but no other wideout has caught a pass. Considering the expected results from this crew, Sanchez has done a nice job so far.

This week will be most interesting since the Titans have already allowed three wideouts to top 100 yards. With the Titans still formidable at stopping the run, the Jets will pass and so far - everyone loves passing on the Titans.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller caught a score last week and has already become a valued outlet for Sanchez. With the Titans already allowing both Heath Miller and Owen Daniels to have big games, do no hesitate to use Keller this week.

Keller snagged six passes for 42 yards in the road game with the Titans in 2008.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 24 12 18 13 11 24
Preventing Fantasy Points    TEN 31 1 32 26 25 13

The Huddle
WEEK 3
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Monday
Sunday Late
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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