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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Upon Further Review - Week 3
David Dorey and John Tuvey
September 25, 2009
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In order to help our members better use the starting information that The Huddle provides, the intent of this page is to discuss perceived differences between The Start Bench List and Predictions and Projections . The players below were identified by multiple members. The two reports are written by two different people so differences are always possible, but at least this page should help you make up your mind about these players on your roster.

Michael Turner (@ NE)- Projection: 50 yards, SBL Rating: S2

Turner has the biggest perceived disparity between the projected stats of only 50 yards and an S2 rank that he should be a solid start. Dorey is concerned that Turner has started slowly and that the schedule is getting worse. His concern is also that the Patriots rushing defense plays better at home regardless of the LB injuries that lead Tuvey to think Turner could have a solid game here. Tuvey saw the Jets have success running against the Patriots, though those numbers were split between two backs; Turner doesn't share as much of the workload and would thus be in line for a larger share of the yardage as well. He also saw Turner have success on the road against a very good run defense in Minnesota last year—and without Richard Seymour, Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel and Jerod Mayo, no longer sees the Patriots as falling into that category. With Turner, he almost never catches a pass so his value relies solely on running the ball. Dorey's concern also stems from the pattern of last year where Turner was much more effective in home games than in road games (2008 - 39% of yards and only 22% of the scores came away from Atlanta). Consensus: Turner remains an S2 because he is Turner - a stud running back who can break a long run at any time. The projections pay homage to the nature of Turner on the road and while that may be most likely based on all the variables, the fact that Turner faces a defense that is missing linebackers means that Turner has some upside this week. His role is also going to be dependent on the game situation as well since he doesn't double as a receiver when/if the Falcons fall behind. Unless you have another back who has a markedly better matchup, Turner is still worthy to start from his upside.

Dwayne Bowe (@PHI) - Projection: 50 yards , SBL Rating: S3

50 yards and a "S3" are pretty much the same thing. Bowe has yet to be the most targeted wideout for the Chiefs though they have relied on him for two scores. He has yet to turn in more than 56 yards and faces the Eagles who are smarting from being slapped by the Saints in front of the hometown crowd. The projection is in line with what he has done other than the touchdown which as a single play event is unreliable. S3 designation notes that after scoring against the Ravens and Raiders—statistically two of the better pass defenses, at least heading into the season—it's tough to see Bowe being bench fodder because of a perceived tough matchup. He is a risk, he will be the focus of the secondary. This is really not a discrepancy and the Chiefs are not exactly the Saints. Consensus: Borderline starter material more likely to have a bad game than a good one.

Kevin Smith (vs. WAS) - Projection: 60 rush, 40 receive, SBL Rating: S3

100 total yards sounds maybe more like a S2 than a S3. Tuvey says that a touchdown is not likely and Dorey agrees. He also says that the Lions will not abandon the run so Smith " should have the opportunity to put up helpful yardage." Both point out that Jackson ran for 107 yards against the Skins in Washington last week. Perhaps the perceived difference is that the projection considers that Smith had seven receptions for 50 yards when they played last year and that yardage pushes him more into S2 territory. Consensus: Smith is not an S1 this week but he isn't in a bench situation either. He should be good enough to be S3 with his rushing stats and if the Lions use him as a receiver in the past, he'll be good for a S2 but there is risk involved. Said another way - he is a lock for S3 and has upside for being a S2.

Michael Bush (DEN) - Projection: 40 rush + 1 TD, 10 receive , SBL Rating: B

50 total yards is an S3 at best so it is the addition of the touchdown that must be the issue - it throws Bush up higher on sorted projections with fantasy points. Tuvey points out that Bush has some upside here but a minority share of carries. He finds that Bush should be a bench player because he's not likely to get enough work to make him worthy of being a fantasy starter. Dorey points out " why would you not stack the line against the run when playing the Raiders?" and that he expects mediocre stats but a chance for a touchdown by Bush. Consensus: Bush is a poor start and at best we have suggested his main value stems from being able to score a touchdown which was described as "a chance". There is no real contradiction here but what makes for perhaps some disparity is that the total game score is determined and Dorey felt that Oakland would get one touchdown. The idea it would be by the pass seems less likely than from a rushing attempt. That a single play, that is a coin flip between Bush, McFadden and potentially Justin Fargas who may be available. Bush is a poor start with a higher chance of being even worse than better.

Start Bench List Ratings:
S1: Start 'em Tier One (Stud / Great matchup) U: Upside player (Possible sleeper)
S2: Start 'em Tier Two (Solid matchup) X: Unclear situation / Could go either way
S3: Start 'em Tier Three (Borderline / Barely) B: Bench 'em (Bad Matchup / Too much risk)
Predictions and Projections:
The projections are what is mostly likely to occur given everything that has recently happened added to the current team dynamics. They consider total rushing and passing yardage and scores and then distribute them between the most active starting players based on how the track record of the offense and the opposing defense along with variables like injuries, depth chart changes, venue, weather and so on.

Other Features
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Start / Bench List
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