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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 4
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
ARI, PHI
Monday
ATL, CAR
*Updated

Prediction: NYG 24, KC 6

Saturday Update: Bowe is a game time decision but even if he plays he is not an attractive fantasy start against the Giants. Way too much risk here and Bowe is not healthy anyway. Bradshaw had practice on Friday but was still limited. He is expected to play and is listed as probable. His ankle and foot are not 100% but are good enough to allow him to contribute and Danny Ware is still out anyway and Jacobs could use the help.

Friday Update: Ahmad Bradshaw has not practiced this week and wears a protective boot on his sprained foot. He has not been ruled out this week and could potentially practice tomorrow but I am lowering his projection a bit for now. We'll see how he does on Friday.

Dwayne Bowe was held out on Wednesday and limited on Thursday. He will likely be added into the projections if he can practice on Friday.

This is a great example of two teams alike except for being exact opposites. The Giants are on yet another path to the playoffs and their shutout in Tampa Bay shows what happens when a team never plays down to the level of their opponent. The Chiefs are still searching for their first win and while that trap game is going to happen eventually, the Giants proved last week that play for keeps every week.

New York Giants (3-0)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 WAS 23-17 -6.5 37
2 @DAL 33-31 +3 43.5
3 @TB 24-0 -7 44
4 @KC - -9 42.5
5 OAK - - -
6 @NO - - -
7 ARI - - -
8 @PHI - - -
9 SD - - -
10 BYE - - -
11 ATL - - -
12 @DEN - - -
13 DAL - - -
14 PHI - - -
15 @WAS - - -
16 CAR - - -
17 @MIN - - -
NYG at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning     230,2
RB Brandon Jacobs 90,1    
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 50 10  
TE Kevin Boss   20  
WR Steve Smith   90,1  
WR Sinorice Moss   10  
WR Mario Manningham   60,1  
PK Lawrence Tynes 1 FG 3 XP  
Pregame Notes: The big win over the Cowboys was followed up by steam rolling the Bucs down in Tampa Bay. These next two weeks should be just warm-ups before the schedule turns more serious. The defense has played great and the offense churns along with a committee backfield and a very accurate Eli Manning. Last week was a very good sign in fantasy terms that the Giants cared enough to demolish the Bucs and still score 24 points. That could be played out twice more in as many weeks.

Quarterback: Eli Manning's pass yardage swings from 161 (@TB) and has high as 330 (@DAL) but he has having no problems throwing for two scores each week and hasn't been intercepted or sacked since week one. These next two games could end up controlled by the run but then again the game in Tampa Bay could have as well but did not.

This week Manning faces a secondary that has already allowed two games over 300 passing yards and at least two passing scores. This week will be short of that in yardage but the two scores should stick.

Running Backs: Brandon Jacobs has been a small disappointment this year since he has yet to run for more than 100 yards, has almost zero role as a receiver and scored just once. The split with Ahmad Bradshaw has really drained his fantasy value since the touchdowns are just not coming yet.

Bradshaw ran very hard in Tampa Bay and gained 104 yards but had no catches in that game. The next two weeks could be just as easy so relying on Bradshaw as a receiver may need to wait until week six when he will be more involved in the passing game.

The Chiefs have only allowed five rushing scores this year so the Giants will be hard pressed to get more than one or two. The split of carries will hurt the yardage for both runners and it is likely to be another week with less involvement as a receiver.

Wide Receivers: Sinorice Moss finally had his first catch for the season when he scored from 18 yards out last Sunday. Until then it had been almost entirely about the two starters of Steve Smith and Mario Manningham. Smith has been solid every week with at least 80 yards and/or a touchdown and has 23 catches on the season. Manningham has also scored in two games this year and has 17 receptions as a much used complement to Smith.

Hakeem Nicks may start practicing this week after missing time with his foot injury. I won't add Nicks back in until he has been cleared.

The Chiefs secondary has not faced an opponent with the wideouts and threat like the Giants pose. Expect a score for each and at least moderate yardage though less likely a truly big game. DeSean Jackson (6-149) blew up on the Chiefs last week but the Giants will rush better than the Eagles did.

Tight Ends: Kevin Boss has yet to show up for more than 27 yards in a road game. No reason to start him this week. The Chiefs are weak against the tight ends, but Boss is a bad risk to rely on.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 13 19 1 29 1 3
Preventing Fantasy Points    KC 25 27 15 25 29 11


Kansas City Chiefs (0-3)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @BAL 24-38 +12.5 36
2 OAK 10-13 -4 41
3 @PHI
14-34
+9.5 42.5
4 NYG - +9 42.5
5 DAL - - -
6 @WAS - - -
7 SD - - -
8 BYE - - -
9 @JAC - - -
10 @OAK - - -
11 PIT - - -
12 @SD - - -
13 DEN - - -
14 BUF - - -
15 CLE - - -
16 @CIN - - -
17 @DEN - - -
KC vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel     140
RB Larry Johnson 40 10  
RB Jamaal Charles 10 20  
TE Sean Ryan   10  
WR Bobby Wade   40  
WR Mark Bradley   30  
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG    

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs lost their chance for a win in week two when the Raiders visited and now it could be a while before the stars align and someone shows up that they can beat. Playing outside their division so far has resulted in two losses by 14 or more points and now the Giants show up followed by the Cowboys. Week 15 had the Browns showing up and even week 14 welcomes the Bills. But this losing thing is here to stay for another month - maybe two.

There's not much good to say about the fantasy fortunes of the Chiefs and the schedule is getting tougher.

Quarterback: Matt Cassel has played in two games now and while he had two scores in Philadelphia, one came at the end of the game with the Eagles already winning 34-7. Cassel only threw for 90 yards on 14 completions so the slop time was not that profitable. Assumedly he will improve at home but this is the defense that just held the Bucs to a collective 58 passing yards last week.

No reason to start Cassel who will do well enough to get just one touchdown this week. It is unlikely and the yardage is not going to be there.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson maybe has not looked worse. He has 54 carries for 136 yards on the year for a 2.5 yard per carry average which seems high if you have seen him run lately. Johnson has yet to score a touchdown and has minimal involvement as a receiver.

Jamaal Charles was a healthy scratch in week two and then came out in week three with 36 yards on six carries and three receptions for 34 yards. At least for now, this remains a horrible rushing attack divided in two.

The Giants has been very strong against the run this year and there is no reason to consider either Johnson or Charles this week. Charles may get some catches or could be another surprise game time healthy scratch.

Wide Receivers: Dwayne Bowe hurt his hamstring in practice last Thursday and ended up inactive for week three. I will assume that Bowe sits out another week and update if warranted. Mark Bradley had a touchdown last week but only 28 yards on four catches. He'll share starting duties with Bobby Wade who also scored last week with only two catches to his credit.

Only one wideout this year has managed more than 23 yards against the Giants secondary. It is safe to say this player is not on the Chiefs roster. The Giants have not allowed any wideout to catch a score either. Stay far away. Even if Bowe plays.

Tight Ends: The Giants only weakness is against tight ends. Sadly, Tony Gonzalez is gone and was not replaced.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 22 28 15 28 29 31
Preventing Fantasy Points    NYG 3 13 1 21 3 1

The Huddle
WEEK 4
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
ARI, PHI
Monday
ATL, CAR
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
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