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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 4
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
ARI, PHI
Monday
ATL, CAR
*Updated

Prediction: SEA 10, IND 27

Saturday Update: Both Hasselbeck and Jones never practiced this week.

Friday Update: Matt Hasselbeck remains out with his rib injury and has not practiced. LT Walter Jones has not practiced though there was optimism that he would return this week which would be a big help on the offensive line.

The Colts reasserted themselves in the NFL when they took a short week and went to Arizona where they dismantled the NFC champion from last year. The Colts are a clear contender for January play and Manning is on top of his game. The Seahawks - different story. Matt Hasselbeck has a broken rib and missed the game. Their kicker has been publicly crucified by the head coach for missing field goals and now they trek across the country. The line has not been established yet for this matchup but it not only is favored by the Colts, they are probably deciding how many commas to use.

Seattle Seahawks (1-2)
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 STL 28-0 -7.5 37
2 @SF 10-23 +1.5 39.5
3 CHI 19-25 +2 37
4 @IND - OFF -
5 JAC - - -
6 ARI - - -
7 BYE - - -
8 @DAL - - -
9 DET - - -
10 @ARI - - -
11 @MIN - - -
12 @STL - - -
13 SF - - -
14 @HOU - - -
15 TB - - -
16 @GB - - -
17 TEN - - -
SEA at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Seneca Wallace     190
RB Julius Jones 40    
RB Justin Forsett 30 40  
RB Edgerrin James 10,1    
TE John Carlson   40  
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh   50  
WR Deon Butler   10  
WR Nate Burleson   40  
PK Olindo Mare 1 FG 1 XP  

Pregame Notes: The only thing amusing about the HC Jim Mora ripping into Olindo Mare for missing two kicks on Sunday is that Mare was good on four tries and his 13 points led all NFL kickers last week. "Sorry coach, ever thought about scoring a touchdown maybe? Extra points are easier".

The Seahawks need to win those home games when possible because out on the road this entire team drops a notch or two. That flies directly into the fantasy value as well and playing in Indy this week makes all of these players immediately suspect to start.

Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck is not expected to practice early in the week and I am assuming that he sits out this game since playing in Indianapolis is no treat for a passing game anyway. Seneca Wallace catches a small break since Dwight Freeney is out for a couple of weeks because of a quadriceps injury but Wallace closely follows the road flop trend for the team. He had 261 yards and a score against the visiting Bears but only posted 127 yards and a score in San Francisco.

The Colts have only allowed one passing touchdown this season and Warner had decent yardage as well but the Colts are back at home. Wallace is unlikely to break 200 passing yards and his shot at scoring is suspect at best.

Running Backs: Troubling trend again. Julius Jones at home averages 107 rushing yards and 30 receiving yards. Has scored in each home game. On the road in San Francisco, gained 11 yards on eight carries with -2 yards on three catches (somehow had a touchdown though). Granted that is heavily dependent on who the three teams were but it is a sign of a true dichotomy of how the Seahawks play home and away.

Justin Forsett had his big game on the road and then nearly nothing in the two home games so he's like the anti-homer. Six catches for 57 yards in San Francisco and no catches at home.

The Colts were burned by both Maurice Jones-Drew (21-97, 1 TD) and Ronnie Brown (24-136, 2 TD) but then crushed the Cardinals last week. Safest bet is to expect moderate numbers at best with Jones running and Forsett receiving. One touchdown would likely come via a run and that favors Jones though wouldn't it be appropriate to let Edgerrin James take that goal line plunge? In fact he may play a bit more than the few weekly carries he has been getting. Bottom line - nothing here looks that great.

Wide Receivers: Nate Burleson remains the primary wideout in this scheme and had a season best nine catches for 109 yards against the Bears. T.J. Houshmandzadeh has not score or even had more than 62 yards in a game. He's made public comments about being open and yet not getting throws. Deon Butler is just one catch every week. No more, no less, no scoring. It is evident that Wallace prefers Burleson over all others, even when they are apparently open.

Deion Branch finally made it back last week but only had two catches for 13 yards and is still not recovered from his hamstring injury. I won't be adding him into to projections until he matters again.

The lone road game had all these wideouts unproductive and now in Indy they play where the Jags could only get 47 yards from Torry Holt as their lead receiver. One difference though is that the Seahawks are not going to run as well as those Jags did and will need to throw more. The Colts secondary is banged up though but playing at home always helps. Being on the road hurts without Hasselbeck hurts the Seahawks. None of these receivers are attractive starts this week.

Tight Ends: John Carlson had 95 yards and two scores to open the year with Hasselbeck. Two games with Wallace has produced just nine catches for 72 yards combined and the Colts are the #1 defense against tight ends. Carlson is a marginal start at best.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 10 10 23 7 16 17
Preventing Fantasy Points    IND 4 21 14 1 20 4


Indianapolis Colts(3-0)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 JAC 14-12 -6.5 44.5
2 @MIA 27-23 -3 42
3 @ARI 31-10 +2.5 48
4 SEA - OFF -
5 @TEN - - -
6 BYE - - -
7 @STL - - -
8 SF - - -
9 HOU - - -
10 NE - - -
11 @BAL - - -
12 @HOU - - -
13 TEN - - -
14 DEN - - -
15 @JAC - - -
16 NYJ - - -
17 @BUF - - -
IND vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning     260,2
RB Joseph Addai 60 30  
RB Donald Brown 50,1 10  
TE Dallas Clark   60,1  
WR Reggie Wayne   100,1  
WR Austin Collie   10  
WR Pierre Garcon   40  
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Colts struggled to win their first two games against teams that are a combined 1-5 on the season. Then they take a short week to Arizona to smoke the Cardinals even though they are missing most of their secondary - you have to love football. The Colts could be in for a let down this week after two straight road games and knowing that they can win this one. Next week in Tennessee is important too. The Colts will win this but how hard they try remains to be seen.

Quarterback: Three weeks, three straight games with over 300 yards and at least one score. Peyton Manning tossed four touchdowns in Arizona to up his season to seven touchdowns and has been just outstanding and unstoppable when the Colts need him to get the job done late. The absence of Anthony Gonzalez - not an issue.

This week is likely for a let down because the Seahawks are unlikely to challenge the Colts as they have been for three weeks. That means Manning may dip below that 300 yard mark but he'll be a decent start regardless and likely post a couple of passing scores.

Running Backs: After a bad week in Miami, Joseph Addai was back to form in Arizona when he gained 63 yards on 13 carries and scored once on his three receptions for eight yards, He still has yet to produce more than 77 total yards in a game but has scored twice. He is the opener in every game.

Donald Brown becomes the closer and his 72 yard catch last week won't be forgotten by Manning. Brown has only ben getting around a dozen carries and has scored once this season. This is a Divide-by-two situation and that is not going to change anytime soon.

This week they face a defense that was ripped apart by Frank Gore on two long touchdown runs but otherwise the unit has been at least average and maybe a little better. Figure on one rushing score this week that probably ends up with Brown late in the game.

Wide Receivers: Reggie Wayne remains king and had 126 yards and a score last week in Arizona. Pierre Garcon has scored in both of the most recent games and had 50 or more yards. Austin Collie remains the odd man out with minimal production.

The only team with remotely as good receivers to face the Seahawks was just last week with the Cutler and the Bears who had 156 yards and a score shared between Hester and Bennett. At home, Wayne is always a strong play. This may be where Garcon cools off because they will not need him.

Tight Ends: Since Gonzalez left, Dallas Clark has been a force with seven receptions per game, a score in each and 245 yards in the last two weeks. The Seahawks let Greg Olsen score. Clark should be a lock for a nice showing here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 3 12 5 1 19 21
Preventing Fantasy Points    SEA 7 20 10 15 6 14

The Huddle
WEEK 4
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
ARI, PHI
Monday
ATL, CAR
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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