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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 5
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
CHI
Monday
SD
GB
*updated
NO

Prediction: DAL 27, KC 14

Saturday Update: Roy Williams is listed as doubtful and is not expected to play this week after missing all practices same as Felix Jones.

The Cowboys come into this game yet again questioning the coaching , the players and play calling. The loss in Denver undid whatever good beating up the Panthers brought. The Chiefs are 0-4 and facing their third straight game with a nine point line against them. The Cowboys are no road team but given this circumstance, should pull off a win and throw some points on the board to make them feel better heading into their bye week. A win by the Chiefs and Wade Phillips may not see November as a head coach.

Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Homefield: Texas Stadium
RealGrass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @TB 34-21 -5 39
2 NYG 31-33 -3 43.5
3 CAR 21-7 -9 46
4 @DEN 10-17 -3 43
5 @KC - -9 42.5
6 BYE - - -
7 ATL - - -
8 SEA - - -
9 @PHI - - -
10 @GB - - -
11 WAS - - -
12 OAK - - -
13 @NYG - - -
14 SD - - -
15 @NO - - -
16 @WAS - - -
17 PHI - - -
DAL at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Tony Romo     280,2
RB Marion Barber III 70,1 10  
RB Tashard Choice 40 30  
TE Jason Witten   70,1  
WR Sam Hurd   50  
WR Patrick Crayton   50  
WR Miles Austin   60,1  
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 3 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Cowboys did their usual in jumping out to a lead and looking good early on only to crumble when it matters most and allow the opponent to take the win back. A multitude of dumb penalties and the obligatory errant throw/fumble by Tony Romo and good teams can always beat the Cowboys. Fortunately that is not who they face this week. WIth a bye on the other side and a very bad taste left from giving the game back to the Broncos last week, this should be the Cowboys once again taking it to the indians.

Quarterback: Once again Tony Romo becomes the scapegoat and media target with his game changing fumble and interception that led to 14 Broncos points. And once again with the game on the line, Romo led the team down the field like he knew he could and then choked at the end when his final two passes went towards #4 wideout Sam Hurd who was covered by all-world cornerback Champ Bailey. After opening the season with a big effort in Tampa Bay, Romo has thrown one touchdown against four interceptions, lost a fumble and been sacked seven times in three games. The last two weeks have him throwing for exactly 255 yards and no touchdowns in both.

This is a chance to make things right for at least two weeks (thank you, bye week). The Chiefs have given up at least 290 yards and two scores to every opposing quarterback who is not named JaMarcus. This is the chance for Romo to temporarily quiet the critics. Look for healthy yardage and two scores in this game.

Running Backs: Marion Barber returned from his bruised quad and started against the Broncos. He gained 41 yards and a score on 11 carries and later took himself out of the game with his leg bothering him again. That left Tashard Choice to run for 33 yards on 14 carries and add 47 yards on five receptions. Barber will play this week for sure and Choice will mix in as well.

Felix Jones remains out with his knee sprain and will not be included in the projections until he is cleared. That is more likely after the bye next week.

The Chiefs rushing defense just gave up 156 yards to the Giants running backs but the Cowboys are not as good and may be without center Andre Gurode. Expect a rushing score by Barber this week and hope his quad doesn't tighten up on him again. Choice makes a less attractive play this week with Barber better.

Wide Receivers: Roy Williams suffered cartilage damage to three ribs and he may miss this week so he can rest up with the bye week to follow. Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton have been almost invisible since week one but will return to the play calling more with Williams likely out. It should also be easier to hit Sam Hurd without Champ Bailey riding him like a surfboard.

The Chiefs are weak against the pass and five touchdowns have gone to the wide receivers. I like the speedy Austin to take one touchdown like how Hakeem Nicks and DeSean Jackson did as fellow speedsters. This could end up with Sam Hurd just as easily.

Tight Ends: Jason Witten comes off his worst game of the year when he had only four catches for 31 yards. He has scored only once this year and still have had more than 77 yards in a game. This week he faces a defense that has not seen many decent tight ends. Expect a score here and at least moderate yardage.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DAL 17 4 17 18 16 23
Preventing Fantasy Points    KC 27 24 27 19 29 10


Kansas City Chiefs (0-4)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @BAL 24-38 +12.5 36
2 OAK 10-13 -4 41
3 @PHI
14-34
+9.5 42.5
4 NYG 16-27 +9 42.5
5 DAL - +9 42.5
6 @WAS - - -
7 SD - - -
8 BYE - - -
9 @JAC - - -
10 @OAK - - -
11 PIT - - -
12 @SD - - -
13 DEN - - -
14 BUF - - -
15 CLE - - -
16 @CIN - - -
17 @DEN - - -
KC vs DAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel     250,2
RB Larry Johnson 60    
RB Jamaal Charles 20 40  
TE Sean Ryan   20,1  
WR Dwayne Bowe   50  
WR Bobby Wade   70,1  
WR Mark Bradley   30  
PK Ryan Succop   2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The bad season just gets worse with a tough schedule and a continuing lack of playmakers. The lack of any credible rushing game undermines the passing offense that cannot possibly hope to keep the Chiefs in games. The defense has suffered a similar collapse allowing 27+ points each week they do not face the Raiders. With no rookies being eased into roles, the Chiefs are playing out a season where all they can hope is that Matt Cassel is learning more and getting in synch with his wideouts.

Quarterback: After three weeks, Matt Cassel has proven one thing - he is no savior. He has throw for at least one or two scores in every game and not had an interception in the last two weeks but he has topped out at 127 yards here recently and only had around 15 completions. In fairness he has not turned the ball over much and has been sacked 13 times already. He is not the problem but he's not the solution either.

This week he faces the Cowboys who have never allowed less than 220 passing yards and a score. The secondary was exposed last week by the Broncos and there is no doubt that Cassel has to throw this week. Expect at least good yardage and it could be a season high.

Running Backs: The Chiefs stick with Larry Johnson for a lack of other options but he has only gained 189 yards on 72 carries for a 2.6 yard per carry average. Of course there has been no rushing scores by anyone on this team. Jamaal Charles has been mildly effective as a third down back but has made no moves to dislodge Johnson from being the starter. This is one of the weakest rushing attacks in the league.

The Chiefs face a Cowboys defense that has not allowed a rushing score since week one and that has not allowed more than 65 rushing yards to an opponent since the season opener. Figure on more of the pedestrian numbers by Johnson and Charles.

Wide Receivers: Dwayne Bowe was limited all week in practice with a bad hamstring but suited up and played on Sunday. He only had one catch for 11 yards and broke his two game scoring streak. His season best was only 56 yards anyway. Bobby Wade has scored in each of the last two games but had no more then 13 yards in either games. Despite catching five touchdowns, this unit never has any significant yardage. It's mostly about getting close to the goal line and knowing the rushing game cannot punch it in so a short pass suffices.

The Cowboys have been outstanding against the pass other than against the Giants and the one catch by Brandon Marshall last week. These receivers are not likely to challenge the secondary much so expect just more of the same mediocrity that includes short passes for scores.

Tight Ends: Sean Ryan is starting to turn into a factor for the offense. He's one to watch if not grab and season on your bench to see if he improves. Ryan had four catches for 22 yards against the Eagles and then five receptions for 58 yards and a score last Sunday against the Giants. The Cowboys have given up a couple of scores to tight ends already so I like Ryan's chance to score as well as any of the other receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 22 30 19 24 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points    DAL 21 19 25 18 11 16

The Huddle
WEEK 5
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
CHI
Monday
SD
GB
NO
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