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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Bye Week

Prediction: JAC 20, SEA 17

Saturday Update: Hasselbeck had his second full day of practice and is listed as probable. He is now expected to play though the many offensive line injuries are going to have a tough time keeping the rush away from him. I am keeping the same results because the lackluster line of the Seahawks is going to be a problem.

Friday Update: Matt Hasselbeck returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday and Thursday but has not been ruled out yet. Check back after Friday practices for a better update on whether he will play. He is still experiencing pain from his rib injury and the worst of all situations would be for him to play some and let Seneca Wallace finish. I am not updating now but this is a closely watched situation.

This is a messy game with the 2-2 Jaguars hitting the road and the 1-3 Seahawks at home where they once were invincible but so far can only beat the Rams there. Seattle is already a non-contender this year but a win by the Jaguars helps feed their chances after a rough start to the season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @IND 12-14 +6.5 44.5
2 ARI 17-31 -3 43
3 @HOU 31-24 +4 46.5
4 TEN 37-17 +3 41.5
5 @SEA - +1 44
6 STL - - -
7 BYE - - -
8 @TEN - - -
9 KC - - -
10 @NYJ - - -
11 BUF - - -
12 @SF - - -
13 HOU - - -
14 MIA - - -
15 IND - - -
16 @NE - - -
17 @CLE - - -
JAX at SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     220,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 70,1 30  
TE Marcedes Lewis   20  
WR Torry Holt   50  
WR Mike Sims-Walker   80,1  
WR Mike Thomas   30  
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Jags are only 2-2 but barely lost in Indianapolis to open the season and the only real surprise was the loss to the visiting Cardinals though they are the reigning NFC Champions from last year. Nice wins over the Texans and Titans put the boat back on course and the next four games - @SEA, STL, @TEN and KC - could all be wins and land the Jags at 6-2 heading off to play the Jets. A big win this week says forget about the start to the season.

Quarterback: David Garrard feasted on the Titans last week like every other opponent has. He passed for 323 yards and three scores and had 282 yards and two touchdowns in week two against the Cardinals. The only problem with that is those were home games and on the road, Garrard hadn't thrown any touchdowns or had more than 214 passing yards. That is somewhat balanced by the success that Maurice Jones-Drew had on the ground though.

The Seahawks gave up three scores and 247 yards to Cutler when he visited Seattle. Figure on Garrard having a decent game but the Seahawks are weaker against the run than the pass and that means Jones-Drew becomes the focus of the offense.

Running Backs: Though more related to the opponent than the venue, it is odd that Jones-Drew only had 80 total rushing yards at home against the Cardinals and Titans and yet on the road, he turned in 216 yards and four touchdowns in Houston and Indianapolis. He remains a solid receiver with three or four catches each week and should look forward to this road trip to keep his odd trend alive.

Notable too was Rashad Jennings who ran for 53 yards on nine carries in his first game with more than a token carry. Those were late game carries when the game was already decided though.

The Seahawks opened the season giving away 207 yards and two scores to Frank Gore but have been better since thanks to playing lesser running backs. In two games in Seattle, no runner has scored or had more than 66 rushing yards but Jones-Drew should manage at least a decent game here. He is the central focus of this offense and the Seahawks can only hope to slow him down. The performance of Garrard last week should serve some notice to opponents that they cannot merely load up against the run and consider that enough.

Wide Receivers: Maybe everyone is holding their breath hoping that Mike Sims-Walker remains healthy for the first time but he has been dynamite for three weeks with never less than six catches for 81 yards and he already has three touchdowns. And that considering he had no catches in week one. Torry Holt chugs along with around three catches for 50 yards regardless what the team needs. Other than Sims-Walker, no other wideouts have scored or had more than 65 yards.

This week the Seahawks secondary has been very suspect against wide receivers and allowed four touchdowns to the position in just the last two games. Look for a score from Sims-Walker and around 50 yards from Holt. Yet again. and again.

Tight Ends: It is a neat pattern that fits Marcedes Lewis though it works against him this week. He has scored and had at least 62 yards twice this year - both at home. He had just 23 yards or less and no scores twice this year - both on the road. This week in Seattle, leave Lewis on your bench.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 12 12 15 12 8 22
Preventing Fantasy Points    SEA 14 22 21 14 14 15

Seattle Seahawks (1-3)
Homefield: Qwest Field
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 STL 28-0 -7.5 37
2 @SF 10-23 +1.5 39.5
3 CHI 19-25 +2 37
4 @IND 17-34 +10 43.5
5 JAC - -1 44
6 ARI - - -
7 BYE - - -
8 @DAL - - -
9 DET - - -
10 @ARI - - -
11 @MIN - - -
12 @STL - - -
13 SF - - -
14 @HOU - - -
15 TB - - -
16 @GB - - -
17 TEN - - -
SEA vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Seneca Wallace 250,1
QB Matt Hasselbeck     270,1
RB Julius Jones 50,1 20  
TE John Carlson   50  
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh   80,1  
WR Deon Butler   20  
WR Nate Burleson   80  
PK Olindo Mare 1 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: After opening the season with a shutout of the Rams, it has been downhill since including losing Matt Hasselbeck to cracked ribs and wafting near the bottom of the NFC West with a 1-3 record. The problem so far is that no players have taken the next step up to raise the team and that is not surprising since it is the same guys from last year. The remaining schedule is one of the lighter ones in the league but nothing so far says the Seahawks can take any advantage of that.

Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck was injured in week two and missed the last couple of games with cracked ribs but there is some optimism that he could return as early as this weekend. Until practice says he can play, I will assume another week of Seneca Wallace.

So far Wallace has been decent with one score and around 250 yards but he has been sacked eight times in the last two weeks and had three turnovers in that time. Plus - the Seahawks lost both games. He's a just a fill-in and not the one who can lead the team back out of this hole they have fallen into.

The Jaguars bring in a very weak secondary. Of course playing Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner and Matt Schaub greatly affected the ranking. Last week Kerry Collins only managed one score and 284 yards in his losing efforts with two interceptions. That is a more realistic parallel to Wallace. Expect one passing touchdown and it could become two depending on the game situation. If Hasselbeck starts it changes the game but Wallace cannot be relied on for more than mediocrity.

Running Backs: Julius Jones has a nice trend going. On the road he has only a total of 19 carries for 36 yards. At home for two games, he has 38 runs for 215 yards and a touchdown. Again a function of opponent as much as venue but it once again fits since the Jaguars have been more forgiving on the road.

Justin Forsett has disappeared again and even playing in Indy only got Edgerrin James four carries. This will be Jones as the primary runner and he should have moderate success and a chance for a touchdown.

Wide Receivers: T.J. Houshmandzadeh finally had a good game as a seahawk when he caught eight passes for 103 yards at Indianapolis last week. If he and Nate Burleson could even have a good showing in the same game, the Seahawks just might win one. Deon Butler has finally changed after recording just one catch in every game. He was blanked in week four on three passes. This unit also has produced only one touchdown this season.

There is a good chance even with Wallace under center that the wideouts could both matter. The Jaguars ranks 31st against the position with five different receivers catching a score already this season and three players gaining over 95 yards against the Jaguars. I like Houshmandzadeh to finally ring up a touchdown but it could end up with Burleson just as easily.

Tight Ends: John Carlson has been a relative non-factor since week one when Hasselbeck played and he had two scores and 95 yards. Since then with Wallace, Carlson has been locked at around 40 yards and no score.

Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 8 14 20 14 19 28
Preventing Fantasy Points    JAC 28 15 31 11 4 6

The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
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Bye Week
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