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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 5
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
CHI
Monday
SD
GB
*updated
NO

Prediction: MIN 24, STL 6

Saturday Update: Favre was limited again on Friday but is listed as probable and is expected to play. Both Donnie Avery and Keenan Burton were limited on Friday which was a upgrade for Burton but none of these wideouts have any fantasy appeal this week. Marc Bulger has been limited in practice and is listed as questionable but is expected to miss this game and let Kyle Boller lose it instead.

Friday Update: Brett Favre has been limited in practice but is expected to play with out limitation. The Rams continue to reel from injuries with Keenan Burton unable to practice because of his hamstring and even Donnie Avery was limited because of his own hamstring problem. I am lowering projections and removing Burton. This is a serious mess and only Steven Jackson is a Ram worthy of any fantasy consideration.

The Vikings are coming off a short week but they remain undefeated while the 0-4 Rams come off their 0-35 shutout by the 49ers last week. This could be a trap game but it boggles the mind to think it could happen. The Rams are Steven Jackson away from being the Raiders.

Minnesota Vikings (4-0)
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @CLE 34-20 +3.5 40
2 @DET 27-13 -10 47
3 SF 27-24 -7 40.5
4 GB 30-20 -3.5 46
5 @STL - -10 39
6 BAL - - -
7 @PIT - - -
8 @GB - - -
9 BYE - - -
10 DET - - -
11 SEA - - -
12 CHI - - -
13 @ARI - - -
14 CIN - - -
15 @CAR - - -
16 @CHI - - -
17 NYG - - -
MIN at STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Brett Favre     270,2
RB Adrian Peterson 90,1 10  
RB Chester Taylor 20 20  
TE Vishante Shiancoe   20  
WR Bernard Berrian   80,1  
WR Sidney Rice   90,1  
WR Percy Harvin   30  
PK Ryan Longwell 1 FG 3 XP  
Pregame Notes: Big win over the Packers on Monday night but because of the much hyped Favre angle but because the Vikings are 4-0 and just beat their divisional rival. This week should be a down game for them to recuperate from Monday night and prepare for three very big games starting in week six - BAL, @PIT and @GB. The Vikings may score their standard 27 points anyway but facing the Rams is hardly a reason to over-prepare for the game and three big matchups loom on the horizon.

Quarterback: Brett Favre followed up his late game heroics against the 49ers with an impressive 271 yard, three touchdown effort against his old Packers team. He's thrown a score in every game and had multiple touchdowns in the last three weeks. Favre has not only added a new dimension to the offense (called "passing"), he has been the main reason why Adrian Peterson no longer is getting force fed a ton of carries each week.

The Rams have a banged up secondary and had allowed at least a couple of scores to each opponent other than the Redskins who sort of do not count. There is no reason why Favre should not have at least decent yardage and two scores here. That will be plenty to win this game but Favre may press a bit more to get more stats for his records.

Running Backs: The Vikings welcomed back LG Steve Hutchinson but Adrian Peterson only rushed for 55 yards on 25 carries with one touchdown scored. Since his monster 180 yard game in week one, he has scored twice and never had more than 92 rushing yards. The Vikings are winning and the biggest culprit to Peterson's decline in stats is his lack of carries and the defenses loading up to stop him so Favre just throws it. Peterson also tweaked his leg on Monday night but is expected to be fine for this matchup.

The Rams rush defense has actually been almost average and part of that is from not facing many elite runners. Look for Peterson to have a decent showing here but less likely a monster game than it seemed like he would. He's an automatic start anyway and should get at least one rushing score.

Wide Receivers: Bernard Berrian finally had his breakout game with Favre at the helm when he had six receptions for 75 yards and a touchdown on Monday night. He had been stuck around 50 yards and no scores in the previous weeks. Sidney Rice did almost as well when he turned in five catches for 70 yards and touchdown as well. Rice has now scored in the last two games and is on equal footing with Berrian in Favre's eyes. Both receivers are improving and becoming starter material for fantasy teams.

Percy Harvin did not catch a score for the second week in a row and only had 39 yards on two catches but remains a dangerous element in the passing game.

The start was slow, particularly for Berrian but this week should see a score for each player once again and at least decent if not big yardage for each. A good example - Driver (4-95) and Jennings (2-103) were the last receivers to play in St. Louis.

Tight Ends: Vishante Shiancoe had his second touchdown catch this year when he produced three receptions for 18 yards on Monday night.. But Shiancoe has had almost no yardage this year and is too unreliable for a fantasy start because touchdowns are his only value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 18 5 8 25 6 4
Preventing Fantasy Points    STL 26 17 19 26 22 31


St. Louis Rams (0-4)
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @SEA 0-28 +7.5 37
2 @WAS 7-9 +10 37
3 GB 17-36 +6.5 41
4 @SF 0-35 +10 37.5
5 MIN - +10 39
6 @JAC - - -
7 IND - - -
8 @DET - - -
9 BYE - - -
10 NO - - -
11 ARI - - -
12 SEA - - -
13 @CHI - - -
14 @TEN - - -
15 HOU - - -
16 @ARI - - -
17 SF - - -
STL vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Kyle Boller     150
RB Steven Jackson 90 20  
TE Randy McMichael   40  
WR Donnie Avery   30  
WR Keenan Burton 40
WR Danny Amendola   10  
PK Josh Brown 2 FG    

Pregame Notes: The Rams are not only 0-4 on the season, they have given up two shutouts in their first month of playing. Fortunately this week is at home where they have scored 17 points before because away from St. Louis three times has only averaged about two points per game. This is a team that is so bad that there may be nothing redeeming on it for a future coach to make use of. Yes, Steve Spagnuolo is a new coach but how can he not fail eventually with this team? There are only seven rounds to the NFL draft and this team needs a total makeover.

Quarterback: Marc Bulger did not play in the latest massacre because of a bruised rotator cuff. He still dressed as the #3 quarterback last week but he's no lock to return for Sunday. In his place Kyle Boller only passed for 108 yards and no scores. His two touchdowns in relief of Bulger in week three were just a tease. This really is the Kyle Boller from Baltimore who can only dream of passing for 200 yards. I will assume Boller starts this week but you really do not care because there is no way anyone is using Boller or Bulger short of a 32 team league that uses team quarterbacks.

There is a chance that Boller can throw for at least one score even if only in slop time when no one cares. The Vikes always allow at least one score and we's all feel bad if they had their third shutout of the year already.

Running Backs: Steven Jackson remains the only offensive facet that matters and he's maintained at least marginal fantasy value every week despite never actually scoring. He has two games over 100 rushing yards but has been surprisingly limited as a receiver for a team that needs anyone that can catch.

The Vikings have not allowed a rushing score this year and no runner has turned in more than 83 rushing yards. Look for moderate yardage and no score again this week. The most amazing part of the Rams is that they are not throwing Jackson ten passes every week. His production so far is astounding considering what little else happens on this offense.

Wide Receivers: When Laurent Robinson went on injured reserve, it was the day the music died for the passing offense. Donnie Avery is the #1 wideout here with a high game of 47 yards and no score. Keenan Burton is locked into sub-40 yard games. Danny Amendola was picked up as a free agent and pressed into duty as the #3 and has one catch in two weeks.

The music died. The Rams receivers are without a shred of fantasy value.

Tight Ends: As expected, tight end Daniel Fells had two touchdowns in week three and last Sunday was back to just one catch for 17 yards. Randy McMichael remains the primary tight end here, such as it marginally exists. And the Vikings are the #32 team at stopping tight ends.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 30 31 29 21 32 30
Preventing Fantasy Points    MIN 18 3 4 32 13 18

The Huddle
WEEK 5
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
CHI
Monday
SD
GB
NO
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Early Injury Report
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