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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Bye Week

Prediction: BUF 6, NYJ 24

Late Update: Both Cotchery and Smith never practiced this week and and are listed as doubtful. They will not be playing.

Early Update: Jerricho Cotchery has missed practice with his hamstring strain and is not expected to play this week. David Clowney will replace him as a starter this week. Brad Smith is also missing practices and is not expected to play as well.

The Bills come off maybe the most embarrassing loss of the season when they treated their hometown fans to a 3-6 loss to the visiting Browns. The Jets were just taken down by the Fins in a spirited Monday night game. Chanced are excellent that the Jets take this win.

The Jets swept the Bills last season, winning 26-17 in Buffalo and later 31-27 in New York.

Buffalo Bills (1-4)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @NE 24-25 +10.5 47
2 TB 33-20 -4 41
3 NO 7-27 +5.5 52.5
4 @MIA 10-38 -2.5 37
5 CLE 3-6 -6 40.5
6 @NYJ - +8 37.5
7 @CAR - - -
8 HOU - - -
9 BYE - - -
10 @TEN - - -
11 @JAC - - -
12 MIA - - -
13 NYJ - - -
14 @KC - - -
15 NE - - -
16 @ATL - - -
17 IND - - -
BUF at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Edwards     160
RB Marshawn Lynch 40 30  
RB Fred Jackson 30 20  
WR Lee Evans   30  
WR Terrell Owens   40  
WR Josh Reed   20  
PK Rian Lindell 2 FG    

Pregame Notes: On the plus side, HC Dick Jauron still had a job on Monday morning despite rumors and speculation to the contrary. The astounding aspect of the loss to the Browns is twofold really. First the Bills defense is so banged up that holding any opponent to just six points is amazing. The Bills are still missing MLB Paul Posluszy and linebackers Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Buggs were both lost for the season with knee injuries on Sunday. Combine what is actually a positive outcome for the defense with an offense that could not throw the ball and scored once against the Browns the entire game is remarkable. With two road games on tap, this team is swirling down the drain thanks in part to injuries. The Bills are now over the easy part of their schedule and the biggest question is if Jauron makes it to the week nine bye before being fired.

Quarterback: Trent Edwards started well enough with two scores in each of the first two games but he has only thrown for one touchdown in the three games since while being intercepted five times and incurring a dozen sacks in that time. The offense is being placed in worse situations with every game and the biggest battle is not giving up already.

The Bills never passed for more than one score against the Jets last year and passed for 148 yards when they visited in 2008.

Bills at the Jets? Not appealing. A team that fell apart at home last week now hits the road to face a Jets team that has lost two in a row. I would not recommend Edwards this week.

Running Backs: There has not been any rushing scores by the Bills this season and now that Marshawn Lynch is back, the meager yardage as of late is split between him and Fred Jackson. Lynch ran for 69 yards on 17 carries against the Browns and added 56 yards on six catches for a decent fantasy day but Jackson still took 13 runs for 30 yards and will continue to bleed what Lynch could do alone. This is back to the split backfield that will favor Lynch but still use Jackson.

Lynch gained 127 yards in New York last year while Jackson only had 31 yards but scored once.

The Dolphin's wildcat formation aside, the Jets have been very tough against the run and no opposing runner has gained more than 46 yards when their team lost to the Jets. No runner has scored. Both the Saints and Dolphins ran well against the Jets in their own stadium but this week looks like a moderate yardage game at best for Lynch and likely no score.

Wide Receivers: Other than the Tampa Bay game, no wideouts for the Bucs have scored or had more than 60 yards in game this year. All three starting wideouts have exactly 60 yards as their high game of the year oddly enough. Terrell Owens has one touchdown and a total of 12 catches for 202 yards over five games played. That is exactly the same numbers as Josh Morgan in San Francisco except Morgan has one more catch. The Bills claim they are not going to trade Owens before the deadline but mostly because no one else would want him and his contract.

No wideout had more than 43 yards visiting the Jets last year.

So far the Jets have allowed only two receiving touchdowns to a wideout and almost all have less than 60 yards which is a high game for the Bills anyway. None of these players make an attractive start this week or maybe the rest of the year.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 25 23 26 27 22 12
Preventing Fantasy Points    NYJ 3 21 5 11 7 24

New York Jets (3-2)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF - -8 37.5
7 @OAK - - -
8 MIA - - -
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC - - -
11 @NE - - -
12 CAR - - -
13 @BUF - - -
14 @TB - - -
15 ATL - - -
16 @IND - - -
17 CIN - - -
NYJ vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez     180,1
RB Thomas Jones 80,2    
RB Leon Washington 50 20  
TE Dustin Keller   20  
WR Jerricho Cotchery 40
WR David Clowney   40  
WR Braylon Edwards   70,1  
WR Brad Smith   20  
PK Jay Feely 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: Losing two straight games punches a hole in "Jets are Back!" balloon and now they are tied with the Patriots for the AFC East with the Dolphins one game back. This week should be an easier game and a trip to Oakland almost certainly will be another one for the "W" column but week eight will be a huge one when the rematch with the Dolphins goes off. Both the Saints and Dolphins showed you can run on the Jets, but it takes either a prolific passing attack to distract them or the Wildcat formation to confuse them.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez has settled down since week one and remained right around 160 to 170 yards per week with usually one touchdown. Last week was a loss but one that spawned much optimism when the addition of Braylon Edwards paid off immediately and put a whole new slant to the passing game (as in there was more than Cotchery to catch the ball). He now has a quality wideout and Cotchery can return to the #2 role he has always been best suited to have.

Favre passed for only 207 yards and one score when the Bills visited last year. He only had 201 yards and no score in Buffalo.

The Bill rank well against the pass because opponents just run the ball to beat them. Brady opened the season with 378 yards and two scores against them and even Leftwich had 296 yards and three touchdowns before the rest of opponents just ran the ball all over the Bills. Look for a standard Sanchez game with a score for his new toy of Edwards.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones had scored five times this year and twice just last week in Miami, but he is lagging on yardage with only around 50 yards in each of the last four weeks. Leon Washington looks quick and dangerous and yet has never scored a touchdown or had more than 24 yards as a receiver or 60 yards as a runner. He mostly serves to drain value from Jones who is going to take the goal line plunges.

Jones rushed for around 70 yards and scored once in both meetings with the Bills last season. Washington scored in the home meeting but that was on a 47 yard run - his only of that game.

The Bills are decimated on defense and have allowed six rushing touchdowns in just the last three games. The Browns never had a touchdown last week but Jamal Lewis rushed for 117 yards as an indicator that the Bills are maybe not an elite defense. Start Jones this week and reap the rewards and there could be enough slop left over to even make Washington a decent bye week filler.

Wide Receivers: The Jets had both Brad Smith (foot) and Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) banged up at the end of the Monday night game but so far neither are expected to miss time. It doesn't really matter though since all eyes are on Braylon Edwards who only took about ten minutes to look like a genius acquisition for the Jets who needed a true #1 wideout. After spending all of 2008 pretending he was playing basketball by not taking a step without the ball hitting the ground, Mr. Dropsie turned back into 2007 vintage Edwards making incredible catches and scoring once against the Dolphins and nearly scoring a second time. He ended with five catches for 64 yards and a touchdown.

The Bills secondary is banged up like the rest of the defense so expect a touchdown here for Edwards in front of the hometown fans. The Jets will run more than pass so even Edwards is a risk.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller had no catches on Monday night and only one pass. This could very well become an ongoing problem because the presence of Braylon Edwards gives Mark Sanchez a second tall player to use and one that will be further down the field and faster than Keller. It's too early to create expectations, but last week is not a positive sign for Keller.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 26 13 21 23 13 30
Preventing Fantasy Points    BUF 6 29 4 27 17 28

The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
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