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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Bye Week

Prediction: TEN 13, NE 34

Late Update: Welker has surprisingly been removed from the injury report. Randy Moss appears as probable because of his shoulder but he will play this week and is not expected to be limited.

Early Update: Wes Welker has been limited this week as he has been for several games by now. No reason to worry.

This would have been a great game last year when the Titans may have even been favored. But the Titans are already seeing their season swirl down the drain while the Patriots need to take these easier wins. The Titans are due to win a game but probably not until after their week seven bye when the host the Jaguars.

Tennessee Titans (0-5)
Homefield: LP Field
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @PIT 10-13 +5 37
2 HOU 31-34 -7 40.5
3 @NYJ 17-24 +2.5 37
4 @JAC 17-37 -3 41.5
5 IND 9-31 +3.5 46.5
6 @NE - +9 43.5
7 BYE - - -
8 JAC - - -
9 @SF - - -
10 BUF - - -
11 @HOU - - -
12 ARI - - -
13 @IND - - -
14 STL - - -
15 MIA - - -
16 SD - - -
17 @SEA - - -
TEN at NE Rush Catch Pass
QB Kerry Collins     190,1
RB Chris Johnson 60 20  
TE Bo Scaife   40  
WR Justin Gage   20  
WR Nate Washington   40  
WR Kenny Britt   40,1  
PK Rob Bironas 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The season from hell continues with the Colts handing the Titans their worse loss yet and at home no less. Things are so bad that we even got to see Vince Young throw a few incompletions on Sunday. The defense cannot stop the pass and has allowed an average of 32 points for the last four games and this week probably wont' change that trend. The inability to stop the pass has overshadowed everything else on this team.

Quarterback: Kerry Collins had been almost average as a quarterback since he had been forced to throw in every game and had scored at least once with most games over 200 passing yards but against the Colts only produced 164 yards and no touchdown. Vince Young came in at the end of the game to throw his three incompletions just like it was old times. Short of facing a very weak secondary, this passing attack has not been enough to win a game so far and won't be this week. HC Jeff Fisher said that Collins remains the starter.

The Patriots have allowed a score to four of five opponents and most have turned in two scores and decent yardage. But look for Collins to score more than once is optimistic. The game should head to the air sooner than later but playing in New England means it won't likely matter.

Running Backs: Chris Johnson had his worst game of the season when he gained 34 yards on nine carries and the Titans had to abandon the run early in the Colts blowout. Other than his three touchdown game against the Texans, Johnson has not scored in any other games and has been stuck at 16 carries or less in almost every game. He's also rarely used as a receiver lately as well.

LenDale White got an unusually high ten carries last week when he closed out the game with ten runs for 51 yards but the game was well in hand and White got the benefit of the Colts no longer caring. He still only has one score on the season and virtually no yardage of note.

The Patriots rushing defense has been slightly weaker lately with 88 yards for Knowshon Moreno last week and 103 yards to Ray Rice the previous week. Considering what happened last week in Tennessee with the Colts, you can assume that the Pats will force the Titans to abandon the run all too soon and once again limit Johnson because he just will not get the volume of carries. LenDale White remains not worthy of a start.

Wide Receivers: Justin Gage continues his descent into oblivion with his second straight game of only one catch and Nate Washington finally had a scoreless game and only 37 yards on three catches last week after snagging a touchdown in three straight games. Kenny Britt also fell off against the Colts but is still the only receiver with any decent prospects each week. This set of receivers have only accounted for one touchdown per week and none on Sunday.

The Pats have only allowed one wide out to score as a visitor and none have gained more than 90 yards. Considering the trends of this offense, there will only be average numbers at best and one touchdown catch that could go anywhere. Washington has been the hot hand but I like how Britt is coming on now. Chances are that it would be during slop time anyway.

Tight Ends: The duo of Alge Crumpler and Bo Scaife still have yet to score a touchdown and neither have gained more than 48 yards in a game. They are barely worth starting to cover a bye week.

Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 24 10 22 24 25 22
Preventing Fantasy Points    NE 13 16 16 13 16 6

New England Patriots (3-2)
Homefield: Gillette Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 BUF 25-24 -10.5 47
2 @NYJ 9-16 -6 46
3 ATL 26-10 -4 44.5
4 BAL 27-21 -2 44.5
5 @DEN 17-20 -3.5 41.5
6 TEN - -9 43.5
7 @TB - - -
8 BYE BYE - -
9 MIA - - -
10 @IND - - -
11 NYJ - - -
12 @NO - - -
13 @MIA - - -
14 CAR - - -
15 @BUF - - -
16 JAC - - -
17 @HOU - - -
NE vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Tom Brady     320,3
RB Sammy Morris 30,1 10  
TE Ben Watson   20  
WR Randy Moss   110,2  
WR Wes Welker   120,1  
WR Julian Edelman   30  
PK Stephen Gostkowski 2 FG 4 XP  

Pregame Notes: The loss to Denver erased the confidence that beating the visiting Falcons and Ravens had spawned and but at least the Pats are now tied with the Jets. And the schedule for the next two weeks against the Titans and then Buccaneers is tailor-made to be 5-2 at the week eight bye and then go through the worse part of the schedule. But there is no mistake - these Patriots are nothing like 2007 when Brady was last healthy.

Quarterback: After starting the year with a big game against the Bills but Tom Brady has been little more than average in the four successive weeks. He's only averaged around one touchdown per week and 240 passing yards. That's the sort of pace that would require three years to match his 2007 season. In fairness, Brady has faced the defenses of the Jets, Broncos, Ravens and Falcons so depressed stats are not a shock.

If you were disappointed with Brady, now would not be the time to trade him away. The Titans are horrible against the pass and have allowed four quarterbacks to exceed 300 yards and three passers have thrown for three or more scores. Cha-ching time playing at home against the weakest secondary.

Running Backs: With Fred Taylor out, the Patriots used Sammy Morris as the replacement and he gained 68 yards on 17 carries - heavy use for a Patriots back. Laurence Maroney had five carries for 21 yards but Morris was the clear primary back. I will assume that he continues but obviously this could and likely will change weekly.

The Titans are outstanding against the run and have not allowed more than 53 yards to any runner this season. The only potential fantasy value here is if one of them scores. That is possible but there would not be much yardage involved.

Wide Receivers: So far Randy Moss has only had two good games and both came at home. He has only one touchdown on the season and has been sacrificed in recent games to the defense's double coverage. Wes Welker scored for the first time last week and has not had a 100 yard game yet this year. Julian Edelman has taken over for Joey Galloway who has been a healthy scratch from games.

This is the week you have been waiting for because the Pats are not going to have much success rushing the ball but should have a field day throwing to the wide receivers. The Titans have allowed six players to gain 90+ receiving yards and of the six wideouts scoring against them this year, three of those had multiple scores. This is the week you wanted.

Tight Ends: Ben Watson has gone from an apparent after thought to being as good as he has ever been. The Pats brought in Chris Baker and Alex Smith to compete but Watson already has three scores on the year. Not much yardage for any but Watson is a red zone target again.

The Titans are weak against tight

Gaining Fantasy Points NE 15 12 19 8 3 25
Preventing Fantasy Points    TEN 32 2 32 31 31 16

The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
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Sunday Late
Bye Week
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