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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Bye Week

Prediction: IND 27, STL 6

Late Update - Avery had a full day on Friday and will be playing.

Early Update: Donnie Avery has been limited in practice but still is expected to play. Just in case you still have Adam Vinatieri - make sure you realize that Matt Stover will be kicking for the Colts for at least the next several weeks while Vinatieri heals up from his knee procedure.

This may be construed as a mismatch since the Colts have yet to lose and the Rams have yet to win. Yeah. Kinda hard to paint it any other way, This is like an extension of the bye week for the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts(5-0)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 JAC 14-12 -6.5 44.5
2 @MIA 27-23 -3 42
3 @ARI 31-10 +2.5 48
4 SEA 34-17 -10 43.5
5 @TEN 31-9 -3.5 46.5
6 BYE - - -
7 @STL - -13 45.5
8 SF - - -
9 HOU - - -
10 NE - - -
11 @BAL - - -
12 @HOU - - -
13 TEN - - -
14 DEN - - -
15 @JAC - - -
16 NYJ - - -
17 @BUF - - -
IND at STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning     300,2
RB Joseph Addai 60,1 30  
RB Donald Brown 40 10  
TE Dallas Clark   70,1  
WR Reggie Wayne   80,1  
WR Austin Collie   50  
WR Pierre Garcon   50  
PK Matt Stover 2 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Colts have lost Adam Vinatieri for as many as eight weeks because of cartilage damage in his knee and they signed Matt Stover as a replacement. But the team could be getting Bob Sanders this week which makes it even less likely the Rams pull a trap game. The Colts have a three game stretch of home games once this week is done which winds up with the Patriots visiting. That will be one of the few remaining games that will challenge the Colts undefeated season unless a trap game happens.

Quarterback: Peyton Manning is on a record pace still with 12 touchdowns and still no games with less than 300 passing yards. Not once. He has been money every week though the schedule was pretty kind to open the year. That doesn't change this week.

Most teams just run to win against the Rams who have lost every game. But their secondary is just as weak and even David Garrard just passed for 335 yards. Look for another good game here by Manning who apparently is incapable of having a bad game.

Running Backs: The rookie Donald Brown has scored twice this year but still hasn't done much to dislodge Joseph Addai from being the primary back. Addai has scored four times so far and had more rushing yardage than Brown in every game. Addai has also added being a receiver unlike Brown. Addai's role as a receiver has netted 17 catches for 103 yards over the last two games. The duo continue to share but Addai remains the much better fantasy play each week.

The Rams are soft against the run as shown by Maurice Jones-Drew three touchdown effort last week. With the split in carries, Addai won't have a big yardage game here but should manage a rushing score unless Brown happens to be on the field at the time. Addai's role as a receiver could wane a bit this week since the run is easier than it was against the Titans or Seahawks when he was at his best.

Wide Receivers: Anthony Gonzalez remains out indefinitely with what is beginning to be thought of as a torn PCL. No matter - the offense has been clocking along fine anyway. Reggie Wayne has scored in all but one game with ample yardage in most. Pierre Garcon disappeared last week but had been solid until the Titans game. Austin Collie had his breakout game right before the bye when he turned in eight receptions for 97 yards and two scores. He's been ripped back off all the waiver wires by now and been productive from the slot for two games now.

The Rams are plenty weak against the wideouts and three players have logged over 100 yards against them. But only three wideouts have scored because most teams do not bother to throw as much in a game with the Rams. Expect moderate yardage from all three wideouts and the score to likely favor Wayne the most.

Tight Ends: Dallas Clark has not scored since week three but he's been highly productive every week and really has not had a bad game yet this year. That should continue against a defense that has allowed scored to almost all decent tight ends that have faced them.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 1 9 4 1 11 21
Preventing Fantasy Points    STL 26 26 20 22 23 30

St. Louis Rams (0-6)
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @SEA 0-28 +7.5 37
2 @WAS 7-9 +10 37
3 GB 17-36 +6.5 41
4 @SF 0-35 +10 37.5
5 MIN 10-38 +10 41
6 @JAC 20-23 +9.5 43
7 IND - +13 45.5
8 @DET - - -
9 BYE - - -
10 NO - - -
11 ARI - - -
12 SEA - - -
13 @CHI - - -
14 @TEN - - -
15 HOU - - -
16 @ARI - - -
17 SF - - -
STL vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Marc Bulger     150
RB Steven Jackson 70 50  
TE Randy McMichael   20  
WR Donnie Avery   30  
WR Keenan Burton   30  
WR Danny Amendola   20  
PK Josh Brown 2 FG    

Pregame Notes: The Rams came close to winning for the first time in Jacksonville when they scored a season high 20 points. But with their best receiver is banged up again and the offense has little more than Stephen Jackson and a general hope for the future to keep them going. It doesn't help much that the rest of the NFC West has improved while the Rams remain stagnant in the cellar.

Quarterback: Marc Bulger comes off his best game of the year with 213 yards and one touchdown since his previous best was only 125 yards but Bulger did the only sane thing that could be done. He made Stephen Jackson also be the leading receiver. It does make defending the Rams easier when only one person has any role in the offense though.

Bulger is likely in for a long game since the Colts have only allowed two passing touchdowns during the entire season. No reason to even glance at Bulger this week.

Running Backs: Stephen Jackson only gained 50 yards on 16 carries last week in Jacksonville but he had a season high six catches for 78 yards to salvage his fantasy value. He still has not scored a touchdown this season but has offered marginal yardage and occasionally decent. He is the Rams offense and the Colts know this.

The Colts are worse against the run than the pass but that hardly means that Jackson is in store for a big game. Over the last three weeks, no runner has gained more than 51 yards against the Colts and S Bob Sanders may be back this week. Expected Jackson to continue his non-scoring ways and have moderate yardage that may be good if he gets another six catches - no reason why he shouldn't.

Wide Receivers: It has been largely a wasteland since Laurent Robinson left for the rest of the season and now Donnie Avery has injured his other hip. Tests were negative on damage to it but he is considered day-to-day. I will assume a limited Avery can play but against the Colts is not going to be productive no matter what his health is like. Neither Keenan Burton nor Danny Amendola have gained more than 50 yards in any game this year.

If you have a Rams receiver on your roster, you need to ask yourself why? Avery may have some future games of note but not this week and not ever for the other wideouts here.

Tight Ends: The Rams use both Randy McMichael and Daniel Fells each week but the results remain well out of range of any fantasy value.

Gaining Fantasy Points STL 26 30 24 18 31 22
Preventing Fantasy Points    IND 4 14 16 6 22 1

The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
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Bye Week
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