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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 7
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
DEN, JAC
Monday
DET, BAL
SEA, TEN
*updated

Prediction: SD 27, KC 17

The Chargers came off their bye week and were throttled by the visiting Broncos in a game that pretty much ensures the Chiefs are out of contention for the division and the playoffs are not exactly looking good either. The Chiefs are just happy they finally got their first win under their belt. These two teams routinely play close games despite the seeming difference between the two franchises. The Chargers swept the Chiefs last year but barely, winning 20-19 at home and 22-21 in Kansas City.

The Chargers have to win this though or bad times will ensue. The Chiefs are still happy to have a win last week.

San Diego Chargers (2-3)
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @OAK 24-20 -9.5 43
2 BAL 26-31 -5 40.5
3 MIA 23-13 -6 42
4 @PIT 28-38 +6.5 43
5 BYE - - -
6 DEN 23-34 -3.5 44
7 @KC - -5 43
8 OAK - - -
9 @NYG - - -
10 PHI - - -
11 @DEN - - -
12 KC - - -
13 @CLE - - -
14 @DAL - - -
15 CIN - - -
16 @TEN - - -
17 WAS - - -
SD at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers     310,2
RB Ladainian Tomlinson 80,1 30  
TE Antonio Gates   80  
WR Chris Chambers   30  
WR Vincent Jackson   100,2  
WR Malcolm Floyd   40  
PK Nate Kaeding 2 FG 3 XP  
Pregame Notes: Tough loss to the Broncos that puts a whole different spin on the season now that the Chargers fall to 2-3 and are four games behind the Broncos in the Broncos in the AFC West. Fortunately the next two games are against the Chiefs and Raiders but then the schedule gets worse including the Broncos rematch in Denver. The Chargers have gone through a tough schedule already but have not been up to the task.

Quarterback: Philip Rivers was on a hot streak until Monday when he only passed for 274 yards and one touchdown. He has scored in every game this year and only has three interceptions against seven touchdowns but his pace is lagging 2008 when the schedule was far kinder. His two lowest yardage efforts have come in the two road games so far this season.

Rivers passed for 346 yards and two scores in Kansas City last year. He totaled 316 yards and two touchdowns in the home meeting.

Rivers has been successful against the Chiefs in the past and this season has seen four opponents pass for 290+ yards and at least two scores versus the Chiefs. This should be a very good week for Rivers and a bounce back from last week.

Running Backs: LaDainian Tomlinson had a season best of 70 rushing yards on 18 carries and three receptions for 30 yards on Monday but he's been healthy for only two games so far and the Broncos and Steelers both sport top defenses against running backs. Darren Sproles has not been a factor beyond replacing him once for a goal line run last week but Tomlinson has offered only small glimpses of the old LT. He has struggled recently against the Chiefs too when he rushed for 78 yards on 22 carries when the Chiefs visited last season and added 39 yards on four receptions. He gained only 39 yards in the road meeting but scored once.

This season the Chiefs have allowed five rushing touchdowns and a couple of 100 yard rushing games against them. Tomlinson has a good chance of decent yardage this week and should top 100 total yards if they continue to use him as a receiver. I like him to score once.

Wide Receivers:Vincent Jackson remains the only wideout here that matters and even though he was constantly dancing with Champ Bailey last Monday, he still managed four catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. Outside of the one game in Pittsburgh, Jackson has been money every week with either yardage or a score or both. He has caught three of the four touchdowns that went to a Chargers wideout this year. Malcolm Floyd had a decent game of 51 yards on three catches last week but that was due to the coverage of the corners on Jackson and Chris Chambers (2-33). Floyd was blanked in the previous game and only Jackson offers any significant fantasy value from these wide receivers.

Jackson had games of 83 and 89 yards against the Raiders last year and scored once in Kansas City.

The Chiefs have struggled against wideouts and allowed three to have huge games against them. Figure on at least one score for Jackson this week and better than usual yardage as well. MIles Austin and Steve Smith (NYG) both had multiple scores and 130+ yards on this secondary.

Tight Ends: Antonio Gates has been the lead receiver in almost every game this year and had 70 yards on five receptions last week but he has scored in only one game. He is a lock for solid yardage every week but has lagged on the touchdowns.

Gates caught seven passes for 78 yards at Kansas City last season.

The Chiefs allowed good games to Todd Heap and Brent Celek but those were on the road. At home, no tight end has scored and none have done better than the 57 yards that Jason Witten had in week five. Expect a solid game from Gates as always but likely another week without a score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 9 25 18 4 2 9
Preventing Fantasy Points    KC 28 22 26 18 26 8


Kansas City Chiefs (1-5)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @BAL 24-38 +12.5 36
2 OAK 10-13 -4 41
3 @PHI
14-34
+9.5 42.5
4 NYG 16-27 +9 42.5
5 DAL 20-26 +9 42.5
6 @WAS 14-6 +6 37
7 SD - +5 43
8 BYE - - -
9 @JAC - - -
10 @OAK - - -
11 PIT - - -
12 @SD - - -
13 DEN - - -
14 BUF - - -
15 CLE - - -
16 @CIN - - -
17 @DEN - - -
KC vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel     210,1
RB Larry Johnson 50,1 10  
TE Sean Ryan   20,1  
WR Dwayne Bowe   80  
WR Bobby Wade   40  
WR Mark Bradley   30  
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: It took facing a team that is missing all signs of an offense but the Chiefs finally got their first win of the year in Washington last week. That may prove fortunate since the rest of the schedule only holds a couple of good matchups left at home. This would be a great game to win before entering the bye week but the Chiefs are stuck scoring 24 points or less each week and usually much less.

Quarterback: Matt Cassel comes off his worst game of the year but the Chiefs finally won anyway. He had been on a three week streak of scoring twice in games but the yardage has never been more than around 250 yards and generally less than 200. But Cassel has not thrown an interception or lost a fumble since week one.

The Chiefs only passed for 171 yards and one score when the Chargers visited last year.

The Chargers have been decent against the pass but have not faced many decent quarterbacks. Ben Roethlisberger lit them up for 333 yards and two scores but Cassel will do well enough to have an average game here. One touchdown and moderate yardage.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson nearly looked like an NFL running back last week when he gained 83 yards on 23 carries for a season high but that was more a reflection on the disarray of the Redskins and Johnson still has not scored in a game this year. He has almost no role as a receiver thanks to Jamaal Charles who has almost no role at all. The success of Johnson will likely continue the same ratio that makes Johnson barely worthy of being a RB3 to fill in for a bye week and Charles has no fantasy value.

Johnson rushed for 55 yards on 17 carries when the Chargers came to town in 2008 and never scored.

The Chargers are weaker against the run and have allowed six rushing touchdowns. No reason to expect Johnson to have more than a barely acceptable game this week but he has a shot at a touchdown. If he doesn't score here, chances are he will not score until week 14 or 15.

Wide Receivers: Dwayne Bowe finally comes off a 100 yard game when he turned six receptions into 109 yards in Washington. He has scored three times this year and other than when the Giants showed up, he has scored or had a nice yardage game every week. The same cannot be said of Bobby Wade or Mark Bradley who have rarely had more than 20 or 30 yards in a game.

No wideout had more than 44 yards versus the Chargers though Dwayne Bowe scored once when the Chargers came to Kansas City.

The Chargers have been very good against the wide receivers and allowed only three scores to the position this year. Other than Hines Ward, no other wide out has done much against the Chargers this year. The passing score is going to go either to Bowe or to a tight end. I'll credit Sean Ryan but the chance is almost the same for Bowe.

Tight Ends: Sean Ryan has a minimal role in most games but his two touchdowns came against the Ravens and Giants. He's stuck around 20 yards in all but one game this year but the Chargers are weaker against the tight ends and gave up a big game to Tony Scheffler on Monday night. Heath Miller and Todd Heap also scored. I like Ryan to get a touchdown but little yardage and his score is not that high on confidence.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 20 31 20 27 21 30
Preventing Fantasy Points    SD 12 30 7 26 27 24

The Huddle
WEEK 7
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Bye Week
DEN, JAC
Monday
DET, BAL
SEA, TEN
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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