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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Bye Week

Prediction: JAC 24, TEN 20

Late Update: Nate Washington had a full day of practice on Friday and is good to go. But Vince Young has been named the starter this week and that changes everything – at least places more risk on it all. I am lowering the passing numbers and adding Young into the projections. I like the Jaguars winning even more now.

Early Update: Nate Washington was a surprise addition to the injury report and did not practice on Thursday because of a strained quadriceps. His projections will be changed if he cannot practice on Friday.

Here is the weekly insult. The Jaguars are 3-3, coming off a bye week and have won three of their last four games including a 20 point win over these Titans. And now the win-less Titans are favored to win by three points? Really? Just like they were in week four when the Jags won 37-17? Ouch. Sorry Jacksonville, that's Vegas' way of saying "I'm just not into you."

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @IND 12-14 +6.5 44.5
2 ARI 17-31 -3 43
3 @HOU 31-24 +4 46.5
4 TEN 37-17 +3 41.5
5 @SEA 0-41 -3 40
6 STL 23-20 -9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 @TEN - +3 44.5
9 KC - - -
10 @NYJ - - -
11 BUF - - -
12 @SF - - -
13 HOU - - -
14 MIA - - -
15 IND - - -
16 @NE - - -
17 @CLE - - -
JAX at TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     300,2
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 30,1 30  
TE Marcedes Lewis   20  
WR Torry Holt   90  
WR Mike Sims-Walker   110,1  
WR Mike Thomas   40,1  
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 3 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Jags may not be getting much respect but their 3-3 record is likely better than it should be. The defense continues to be a problem and the offense is inconsistent at best. What this week is about is to show what the Jaguars can do on the road. They already beat the Titans soundly in a home match-up. But away from Jacksonville the results have been as good as winning in Houston 31-24 to as bad as losing in Seattle 0-41. The Jaguars are coming off their bye but face a team that is beyond desperate for a win. The last time the Titans played they lost 59-0 in New England. Either the Titans are going to roll over or they are going to be unbeatable and nothing in the middle.

Quarterback: David Garrard's production this season has been all over the map. He has thrown touchdowns in only two games but both times had multiple scores. But both were at home. He has been as good as 335 yards and as bad as 122 yards. Garrard passed for 323 yards and three scores when the Titans visited in week four but now hits the road against a rested Titans defense.

The Titans bad secondary - and we are talking the sort of bad that sets records - has allowed 19 passing touchdowns this season and five of six opponents had more than 300 passing yards. Both home losses had the Titans giving up 300+ yards and at least three touchdowns via the pass. Garrard is no Peyton Manning, but he'll get to play like one on Sunday. Everyone does.

Running Backs: Maurice Jones-Drew comes off his second monster game of the year when he gained 133 yards on 33 carries and scored three touchdowns again. He also had 45 yards on five receptions which leads to the concern - can Jones-Drew hold up to such a workload? The coaches keep talking about getting Rashad Jennings into the game more but it never happens. The Jaguars need Jones-Drew to hold up since he is the center of the offense.

The Jaguars combined for only 87 rushing yards and one touchdown against the Titans this year. Jones-Drew only had 14 yards on six runs but added three catches for 26 yards and scored.

The Titans have been outstanding against the run all year and no opposing runner has gained more than 34 rushing yards in Tennessee. Jones-Drew will struggle to post rushing yards but will factor in at least some as a receiver and he still has a decent shot at a touchdown.

Wide Receivers: Mike Sims-Walker turned in seven catches for 91 yards and two scores against the Titans this year. No other wideout had more than 42 yards in that game. He remains the clear primary wideout with four consecutive games of 80+ yards and a total of three receiving touchdowns - no other wideout has any scores. Torry Holt had two big yardage efforts in recent weeks but still remains scoreless. Holt only turned in three receptions for 42 yards against the visiting Titans but should have a bigger role this week. He's getting more passes thrown to him and even Mike Thomas in the slot has produced minor stats lately.

There is a chance that the Titans figured out how to correct the worst secondary in the NFL over their bye week just like there is a chance that time will reverse and we can get a chance to drain our 401k's before the market crashed. Possible but not that probable. If you have Sims-Walker or Holt, this is your week.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis accounted for four receptions for 76 yards and scored once against the Titans earlier this year. And he scored earlier against the Cardinals but both were at home and on the road he has been staying around 23 yards or less and not scoring.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 18 11 14 22 20 31
Preventing Fantasy Points    TEN 32 14 32 29 32 19

Tennessee Titans (0-6)
Homefield: LP Field
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @PIT 10-13 +5 37
2 HOU 31-34 -7 40.5
3 @NYJ 17-24 +2.5 37
4 @JAC 17-37 -3 41.5
5 IND 9-31 +3.5 46.5
6 @NE 0-59 +9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 JAC - -3 44.5
9 @SF - - -
10 BUF - - -
11 @HOU - - -
12 ARI - - -
13 @IND - - -
14 STL - - -
15 MIA - - -
16 SD - - -
17 @SEA - - -
TEN vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Vince Young     180,1
QB Kerry Collins 240,1
RB Chris Johnson 100,1 10  
RB LenDale White 30    
TE Bo Scaife   20  
WR Justin Gage   30  
WR Nate Washington   40,1  
WR Kenny Britt   50  
PK Rob Bironas 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: Just when you think it cannot get any worse, you travel to New England and get beaten 0-59 right before you have two weeks to contemplate the depths of "suck" that you have hit. The Titans are now the subject of constant calls to use Vince Young including from owner Bud Adams because there is nothing left to lose that 0-59 didn't already get rid of. The rush defense is solid and the rushing game here may still be stellar but there is no way of knowing. But the secondary has hit lows never seen be the Titans or the Oilers before them. The margin of loss has grown with every game but at least there is no way that the Jaguars post +60 on them. The Titans are favored in this game if only from the law of averages. But nothing with this team has been normal this season.

Quarterback: One gets the impression that everyone wants to see Vince Young including the owner since he is to be owed $14 million next year if he remains on the roster. But HC Jeff Fisher seems to much prefer Kerry Collins for the same reason he made him a starter last year. And Fisher wants to win, not jack around with the backfield. Collins has not been informed of any change yet so I am assuming he starts this week but in the event it goes bad at any point, Young could still step in during the game.

Collins passed for 284 yards and one score with a second touchdown via a rushing attempt in Jacksonville earlier this season.

The Jaguars defense plays even worse on the road so Collins could have a decent showing here. He has only thrown for two scores once this season but it was at home. Look for at least one passing score since the Jaguars always allow as much and decent yardage but the unsettled assignment of Young or Collins makes this a risky play this week. I will assume Collins starts until otherwise updated.

Running Backs: Chris Johnson rushed for 128 yards on 17 carries in New England for his first big yardage game since week two. But he still has not scored since the second game and his role as a receiver has declined down to having no catches in the last game. The only good news here is that his biggest game of the year was when the Texans showed up in Tennessee.

LenDale White remains the #2 despite giving Javon Ringer seven carries against the Patriots. HC Jeff Fisher confirmed there was no change happening which means White will continue to be largely worthless as the clear #2 back on this team.

Johnson ran for 83 yards on 16 carries in Jacksonville during week 4.

The Jaguars rushing defense has been very good this year and only allowed two rushing touchdowns. No runner has topped the 83 yards that Johnson has gained but at home and rested, I like Johnson to have a good showing here with decent to good yardage and a score. The numbers do not support it as much but it seems like a good spot at home after the bye in a desperate game against a well known opponent.

Wide Receivers: The lackluster passing stats the last few games have sucked out all fantasy value from this group for now but the rookie Kenny Britt was stepping up through week four until facing the Colts and Patriots. Nate Washington was on a nice three game scoring streak that shut off and in the most recent game he had the rare one catch for a 22 yard loss which is not that welcomed in fantasy football. Justin Gage has disappeared since back in week one but Britt and Washington were showing up until the most recent weeks.

Britt had seven receptions for 105 yards and Washington scored once on his seven catches for 66 yards in the previous meeting with the Titans this year. Gage only had one catch for 15 yards.

The Jaguars are no better in the three weeks since the last game and that should spell some success by Britt and Washington. But the specter of switching to Young casts a lot of risk here.

Tight Ends: The tight ends for the Titans have become just afterthoughts this year and have no scores and no efforts over 48 yards. Bo Scaife only had three catches for 25 yards against the Jags this year. Minimal value at best.

Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 27 13 26 24 28 30
Preventing Fantasy Points    JAC 30 15 31 10 15 22

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