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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late
Bye Week
* updated

Prediction: KC 13, JAX 24

The Chiefs come off their bye with a 1-6 record but a 1-2 road record thanks to the Redskins. The Jaguars are 3-4 and return home after losing to the previously winless Titans. These are the two teams you want your players to go against. Not two teams you want to face each other since in fantasy terms it is just a colossal waste outside of Maurice Jones-Drew.

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @BAL 24-38 +12.5 36
2 OAK 10-13 -4 41
3 @PHI
+9.5 42.5
4 NYG 16-27 +9 42.5
5 DAL 20-26 +9 42.5
6 @WAS 14-6 +6 37
7 SD 7-37 +5.5 44
8 BYE - - -
9 @JAC - +6.5 42
10 @OAK - - -
11 PIT - - -
12 @SD - - -
13 DEN - - -
14 BUF - - -
15 CLE - - -
16 @CIN - - -
17 @DEN - - -
KC at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel 20   180,1
RB Jamaal Charles 40 40  
TE Sean Ryan   10  
WR Dwayne Bowe   60,1  
WR Bobby Wade   30  
WR Mark Bradley   30  
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs made their bye a bit more restful by suspending Larry Johnson for the week after he made "homophobic" slurs towards reporters. Jamaal Charles becomes the starter for at least this week and since you can never have too many has-been wideouts on one team, the Chiefs snapped up Chris Chambers when he was released by the Chargers. All in all an eventful week for a franchise that generates more drama as the season progresses.

Quarterback: The problem at hand this week is that the Chiefs are on the road. At home, Matt Cassel has always thrown for at least one score but on the road he was recently blanked and has not passed for more than 186 yards. He has not exceeded 190 yards in a game since week two. Cassel continues to be hamstrung by a lack of credible talent aside from Dwayne Bowe or a running game that inspires more than guffaws from the opponent.

The Jaguars had one of the worst secondaries in the league though and have never failed to give up at least one passing touchdown. Over half of their opponents have thrown for over 250 yards. But Cassel brings in an offense that cannot be relied on for more than mediocre yardage and one score. There is a chance for a second score but it is just not reliable enough to consider.

Running Backs: Larry Johnson is suspended for at least this week, maybe more from the league office and if he was released it would surprise no one and delight Johnson who gets what he wanted all along - out. That ushers in Jamaal Charles as the primary back and he has not had more than six carries in any game this year. No runner has scored for the Chiefs this season and none have gained more than 83 rushing yards. Charles has been the third down back and can catch but his running skills are not yet proven on a team that ranks as one of the worst rushing attacks in the league.

No doubt Charles inspired many waiver wire moves this week but nothing in the first eight weeks says he will be any more successful than the pedestrian numbers that Larry Johnson created. The Chiefs will be bringing Kolby Smith off the PUP list to help out.

Up until last week, the Jaguars had one of the better rushing defenses in the league but there is no Jones-Drew on this team. Expect marginal numbers at best.

Wide Receivers: The offense still wants to rely on Dwayne Bowe but his yardage has been spotty at best. Bowe has the team lead with four touchdowns though and he has scored or had 100 yards in road games so far this year. Mark Bradley is likely to give way to the newly acquired Chris Chambers at least until they realize why the Chargers released him. Bobby Wade contributes at least few catches per week but so far this unit has only one performance over 73 yards this year - Bowe on the road against the Redskins. I will wait on adding Chambers into the mix until he has an uniform and a playbook.

The Jaguars are nothing special on defense just the same as this unit is nothing special on offense. You have to expect Bowe to be the most likely to score the one touchdown but none of these receivers are likely to have a significant game.

Tight Ends: No reliable fantasy value.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 22 31 20 29 23 31
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 28 23 31 10 20 21

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-4)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @IND 12-14 +6.5 44.5
2 ARI 17-31 -3 43
3 @HOU 31-24 +4 46.5
4 TEN 37-17 +3 41.5
5 @SEA 0-41 -3 40
6 STL 23-20 -9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 @TEN 13-30 +3 44
9 KC - -6.5 42
10 @NYJ - - -
11 BUF - - -
12 @SF - - -
13 HOU - - -
14 MIA - - -
15 IND - - -
16 @NE - - -
17 @CLE - - -
JAX vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     240,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 120,2 10  
TE Marcedes Lewis   40  
WR Torry Holt   60  
WR Mike Sims-Walker   80,1  
WR Mike Thomas   30  
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars flopped after their bye week when they lost big to the Titans, particularly since they had handily beaten them only four weeks prior. But the good news is that the Jaguars can beat another bad team when the Chiefs visit Jacksonville and this could be the easiest game left on the schedule.

Quarterback: David Garrard caught flak from the coaches after last week's performance and has seen some of his ability to call audibles reduced. Garrard completed only 14 of 27 passes for 139 yards in the Titans loss and yet he handed off to Maurice Jones-Drew just eight times despite him scoring twice and gaining 177 rushing yards. Garrard only had two games with any passing scores this year and the best was 323 yards and three scores against the same TItans. He has not thrown for a touchdown in three games now and is expected to be on a short leash unless his level of play improves soon.

Garrard has a shot at decent numbers again this week by facing one of the weakest secondaries but it did not count for much last Sunday in Nashville. The Chiefs allowed over 300 passing yards and three scores in their first two road games before facing the punchless Redskins. Garrard is an obvious risk though after last week but is playing at home where his best efforts have all been. Figure on a decent showing this week with good yardage and at least one touchdown. It has the upside to be much more but Garrard is a risk to realize it.

Running Backs: Maurice Jones-Drew has been huge these last two weeks with a combined 351 total yards and five touchdowns. The coaches will want to use him far more than the eight carries he had last Sunday so expect that Jones-Drew turns in another fine effort. The Chiefs have allowed at least one rushing score per road game and no less than around 100 total yards. Expect a good showing here with a shot at multiple scores and very good yardage.

Wide Receivers: All of the receivers had bad games last week though the rookie Mike Thomas led the team with 52 yards on seven receptions and continues to grow into the offense. With Holt not a long-term solution, Thomas is developing into what could become the starting flanker eventually. He worth a stash if you have a bigger roster on your dynasty team.

Mike Sims-Walker pulled a cruel disappearing act last week with only two receptions for nine yards after four straight games of 80+ yards and three touchdowns in that time. Torry Holt flopped as well but remains a solid possession receiver otherwise.

This week the receiver could be limited by what should be a new commitment to the run but the Chiefs are weak everywhere on defense and should at least see Sims-Walker bounce back with good yards and a solid shot at one touchdown. The Chiefs have allowed nine scores to wideouts already.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis has been very quiet for three weeks and the key to his production is that the Jaguars only rely on his in home games against tougher defenses. That likely does not qualify this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 19 12 17 24 25 32
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 30 25 27 20 32 7

The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
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