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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 10
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Monday
Sunday
Bye Week
Sunday Late
NYG, HOU
*updated

Prediction: BUF 17, TEN 30

Late Update: Owens returned for some limited work on Friday and is listed as questionable. He will remain a game time decision and carries a lot of risk. I will not add him back into the projections but you can check the inactives to see if he is playing if you are seriously short of other options.

Early Update: Terrell Owens has strained his hip <insert joke about aging> and has not practiced this week. The expectation is that Owens becomes a game time decision but if there is a way to him to play, he will even if it means having no catches. He's a big risk now and I am removing him from the projections already. On the plus side, both Trent Edwards and Shawn Nelson had had full practices this week.

Justin Gage has been diagnosed with fractures to the transverse process bones in his back and is expected to miss this game and probably at least one more. I am removing him from the projections.

Here are two enigmatic teams facing off. The Bills are good enough to win road games against the Jets and Panthers but sandwich those between home losses to the Texans and Browns. The Bills are 2-2 on the road but only 1-3 at home. The Titans have now won two straight after dropping their first six games thanks to a defense that had been AWOL but apparently was discovered in a box in the corner during the week 8 bye. This is a coin flip game since neither team has been consistent but played in Tennessee with the Titans apparently back in control should end up as a win for the Titans.

Buffalo Bills (3-5)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @NE 24-25 +10.5 47
2 TB 33-20 -4 41
3 NO 7-27 +5.5 52.5
4 @MIA 10-38 -2.5 37
5 CLE 3-6 -6 40.5
6 @NYJ 16-13 +9.5 37
7 @CAR 20-9 +7 37
8 HOU 10-31 -3.5 42
9 BYE - - -
10 @TEN - +6.5 40.5
11 @JAC - - -
12 MIA - - -
13 NYJ - - -
14 @KC - - -
15 NE - - -
16 @ATL - - -
17 IND - - -
BUF at TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Trent Edwards     210,2
RB Marshawn Lynch 50 40  
TE Shawn Nelson   20,1  
WR Lee Evans   60,1  
WR Terrell Owens 50,1
WR Josh Reed   50  
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Bills should get Trent Edwards back this week after Ryan Fitzpatrick merely beat the Jets and Panthers in their stadiums. This also becomes the start of the tougher portion of the Bills schedule with them possibly not being favored in a game again. The Terrell Owens experiment has been a flop but that only matches the rest of the offense that has never really taken off in any game this year. The Bills have not scored more than 20 points in a game for seven weeks and half the efforts were only ten points or less.

Quarterback: Trent Edwards is expected back this week and he was on a declining trend up until his injury in week six. After starting out with four scores in the first two games, Edwards only managed one scoring pass in the next three matchups while not exceeding 192 passing yards. Even Fitzpatrick never topped the 200 yard mark. There is virtually no rushing support here anyway so Edwards return has no major impact.

What to expect on which Titans team shows up. They had been doling out 300 yard games with multiple scores every week and then went on bye. The next game in Tennessee had David Garrard only passing for 139 yards despite having 323 yards and three scores when the Titans showed up in Jacksonville. Alex Smith just threw for two scores and 286 yards so everything is not fixed yet but expect the rusty Edwards to only manage moderate success here and a couple scores. He is more likely to do less than more.

Running Backs: The Bills as a team have rushed for only one touchdown in the entire season and aside from the one time hosting the Buccaneers, no runner has gained more than 71 rushing yards. Marshawn Lynch is used as a receiver much more with Edwards which should be a big help to his stats since Fitzpatrick rarely used him. Fred Jackson is still the relief but has no fantasy value with Lynch around.

The Titans have been very good against the run and Lynch has struggled anyway. No reason to expect more than moderate yardage and no score but his role as a receiver should net him decent total yards.

Wide Receivers: Terrell Owens still has only one score as a receiver but gets to run an end-around once each week and scored on his carry last Sunday. Owens has never had more than 60 yards in any game this year and was even worse with Fitzpatrick around. The return of Edwards should nudge him back up to those lofty 50 and 60 yard games. Lee Evans had two scores from Fitzpatrick but only once scored with a pass from Edwards and that was against the Buccaneers on his only catch in the game. Edwards should help Owens out marginally but has been worse for Evans this year.

The Titans have been weak against the pass but that was going against Peyton Manning or Matt Schaub or Tom Brady. Not Trent Edwards. I like the two passing scores and they should benefit the wideouts the most. I'll give Owens a touchdown but he's always going to be a risk this year.

Tight Ends: Shawn Nelson may return this week after missed the last two games and he does have the only tight end touchdown for the Bills. But he has marginal yardage at best and the rotation with Derek Fine could impact the production. I am projecting a touchdown for Nelson but may change it later. I like a tight end score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 27 27 24 29 16 8
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 32 20 32 29 27 5


Tennessee Titans (2-6)
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @PIT 10-13 +5 37
2 HOU 31-34 -7 40.5
3 @NYJ 17-24 +2.5 37
4 @JAC 17-37 -3 41.5
5 IND 9-31 +3.5 46.5
6 @NE 0-59 +9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 JAC 30-13 -3 44
9 @SF 34-27 +4 41
10 BUF - -6.5 40.5
11 @HOU - - -
12 ARI - - -
13 @IND - - -
14 STL - - -
15 MIA - - -
16 SD - - -
17 @SEA - - -
TEN vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Vince Young 20,1   130
RB Chris Johnson 160,2 20  
RB LenDale White 30    
TE Bo Scaife   20  
WR Justin Gage 40
WR Nate Washington   40  
PK Rob Bironas 3 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: Whatever the Titans did on their bye week, they should bottle and sell. Six games before were all losses including a 59-0 pasting by the Patriots. Since the bye week it has been two wins and over 30 points scored in each. Go figure. It is always a sad day in the fantasy universe when a defense figures out how to quickly improve but the Titans are really more playing to expected form recently. Those first six games were almost Twilight Zone episodes they were so bad and out of character. Switching to Vince Young has also reignited the offense. You have to love how quickly things can change in the NFL. Well.. at least you have to accept it.

Quarterback: Two games back for Vince Young and two more wins. He has only threw for one touchdown against the Jaguars and had 125 passing yards but ran 12 times for 30 yards. In San Francisco, he passed for 172 yards and no score and ran in a touchdown on his five carries. It is not about to make a star of any of the receivers on this team but Young has them on a winning track along with Chris Johnson.

The Bills have been great against quarterbacks only because they are currently the worst defense at stopping running backs. Several teams have posted big passing games against them but most do not and Young certainly will turn in his standard lowball passing day and make you hope he steals a rushing score from Chris Johnson.

Running Backs: Let's not take too much time with this. Chris Johnson has rushed for 228 and 135 yards over the last two games with two touchdowns in each. And now the #32 defense against running backs show up? Thank you, Mr. Schedule-Maker. Thank you very much.

This may be so good that Lendale White accidentally scores. Expect a monster game from Johnson with at least two scores.

Wide Receivers: The return of Vince Young has once again been the demise of the wide receiver but they were hardly setting the NFL on fire anyway. Justin Gage did have a season high 97 yards in San Francisco but only 41 yards against the Jaguars. Kenny Britt has completely been phased back out while Nate Washington remains the safest fantasy play since he has four of the five receiving touchdowns this year.

The rushing game should kill all fantasy value from the receivers in most weeks and definitely when the #32 rushing defense shows up.

Tight Ends: The return of Young so far has done nothing for his ex-buddy Bo Scaife who has turned in around 20 yards in both the starts by Young.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 26 8 26 22 18 21
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 2 32 2 23 16 21

The Huddle
WEEK 10
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Monday
Sunday
Bye Week
Sunday Late
NYG, HOU
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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