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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Bye Week
Sunday Late

Prediction: JAC 13, NYJ 31

Late Update: As expected, Maurice Jones-Drew had a full day of practice and is expected to play without limitation.

Early Update: Maurice Jones-Drew was limited in practice on Thursday because of his knee but it had not been a problem on Wednesday. Check back after Friday practices to see if there is any problem. So far there is no concern.

The Jaguars rise to 4-4 with their win over the Chiefs but hit the road where they have only been 1-3 this year. The Jets are also 4-4 but have lost three of their last four games. The shine is off the pumpkin in New York but the defense should still be enough to hold Maurice Jones-Drew at bay. And that's about all you have to do to beat the Jaguars.

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @IND 12-14 +6.5 44.5
2 ARI 17-31 -3 43
3 @HOU 31-24 +4 46.5
4 TEN 37-17 +3 41.5
5 @SEA 0-41 -3 40
6 STL 23-20 -9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 @TEN 13-30 +3 44
9 KC 24-21 -6.5 42
10 @NYJ - +6.5 40
11 BUF - - -
12 @SF - - -
13 HOU - - -
14 MIA - - -
15 IND - - -
16 @NE - - -
17 @CLE - - -
JAX at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 20   170
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 60,1 30  
TE Marcedes Lewis   10  
WR Torry Holt   60  
WR Mike Walker   50  
WR Jarrett Dillard   20  
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Jaguars have been playing better lately but that comes largely thanks to a schedule containing HOU, TEN, SEA and STL in the most recent games. They will still do well enough to reach .500 at the end of the season with remaining games against NYJ, SF, MIA, IND and NE. The offense has succeeded only in relation to what Jones-Drew has done but at least Mike Sims-Walker has emerged as a receiver. It's still not enough to keep pace with above average teams though.

Quarterback: David Garrard has been far too inconsistent this year and only throw for touchdowns three times - all at home. He's been at his worst in road games where he has never throw for a touchdown or gained more than 214 passing yards. This team lives and dies by what Jones-Drew accomplishes and Garrard has not shown the ability to make a difference for this team.

The Jets have only allowed five passing scores this year and never more than one in a home game. Leave Garrard on your bench in every road game and especially this one.

Running Backs: Maurice Jones-Drew - AKA the Franchise - has scored in five of the last six games and has 11 rushing touchdowns already here at midseason. He has feasted on the recent slate of weak teams with six scores in the last three weeks and averaged over 130 rushing yards in those games. The entire team only has 19 offensive scores and 11 are from Jones-Drew.

But the Jets have only allowed one rushing score to a visiting runner this year and no runner has topped 100 rushing yards against them. There is zero debate where the Jets will be focusing on defense. I like the Jaguars to score once this week and MJD is the better bet but by no means a lock to score or have appreciable yardage.

Wide Receivers: The good news is that Mike Sims-Walker comes off a career best game of 147 yards and one score against the Chiefs. That gives him four touchdowns on the season and four games over 90 yards - and every single one was at home. Not one was on the road. He has played in three away games and totaled eight catches for 90 yards which included playing in HOU and TEN. That is partially a function of the rushing game taking over in those matchups but is not a welcoming stat this week.

Sims-Walker is the only wideout to score and Torry Holt has slipped back into marginal stats each week as the possession receiver. Expect a lower effort this week from Sims-Walker who the Jets can cover.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis has disappeared in every road game this year and has 23 yards as his best game. No reason to rely on Lewis against one of the better defenses against tight ends.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 18 9 14 25 25 32
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 10 1 9 7 27

New York Jets (4-4)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF 13-16 --9.5 37
7 @OAK 38-0 -6 34
8 MIA 25-30 -3.5 40
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC - -6.5 40
11 @NE - - -
12 CAR - - -
13 @BUF - - -
14 @TB - - -
15 ATL - - -
16 @IND - - -
17 CIN - - -
NYJ vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez     200,2
RB Thomas Jones 110,1 10  
RB Shonn Greene 50    
TE Dustin Keller   20  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   50,1  
WR Braylon Edwards   60,1  
WR David Clowney   30  
PK Jay Feely 1 FG 4 XP  

Pregame Notes: After a red hot start to the season, the Jets have cooled and lost three of their last four matchups including twice to the Dolphins. Even the visiting Bills won there so the offense has been figured out by now and the defense has been exploited. There might be a tendency to want to look past this game as well since next up is a trip to New England but the Jets are fast becoming nonfactors and cannot afford to lose any games much less a home stand against a softer opponent.

I like a defensive score this week.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez has picked up the pace in recent games with adding rushing scores to his repertoire (to the dismay of Thomas Jones owners). Sanchez comes off a a solid game of 265 yards and two scores against the Dolphins but that was his first effort over 175 yards since the season opener. The Jets have created plenty of game film by now and are not surprising anyone but at least Sanchez is back to scoring.

The Jaguars have been very weak against the pass and allowed every opponent to score at least once if not four times. They have allowed nine touchdowns in the four road games and most teams have 250+ yards against them. Fortunately the Jags are also weaker against the run so Sanchez won't press with the pass more than enough to get decent yardage and at least one passing score and likely two. There is upside for more but the Jets will most likely run when they can.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones has been on fire in recent weeks and while he was unable to extend his four game scoring streak he still rushed for 102 yards last week against the Dolphins. He was having a moderately successful season but exploded for 332 rushing yards over these last three games played. Shonn Greene had his big coming out in week seven with 144 yards and two scores over the Raiders but then only had 18 yards on eight runs against the FIns.

This week should be at least good for Thomas but could be a big game. The Jaguars rushing defense had been solid this season and has allowed only four rushing scores but then Chris Johnson tore them apart in week eight in their last road game. Expect a decent showing from Jones with a good chance that he'll turn in big numbers for the fourth week in a row. If the Jets can get an early lead and hold down Jones-Drew, Greene will get into the act as well.

Wide Receivers: Both Braylon Edwards (4-74, 1 TD) and Jerricho Cotchery (3-70) had a decent showing last week and it was the first time since week five that Edwards had matched his debut effort. Cotchery had a nice showing for his first game back since week five but it all came in a losing effort. When the run works, these wideouts do not do much.

The Jaguars have been very soft against wide receivers though and allowed eight touchdowns to the position over the four road games. Both Cotchery and Edwards are attractive starts this week at least for touchdown potential.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller ended his seven game scoring drought last week when he had eight catches for 76 yards and a touchdown but he'd been stuck around 30 yards or less in each of the previous six games. No reason to jump on the Keller bandwagon this week. The Jaguars are far better against tight ends than they are wide receivers.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 24 7 21 24 11 27
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 28 18 31 7 21 20

The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
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