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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Bye Week
Sunday Late

Prediction: PHI 20, SD 24

Late Update: Gates and Tomlinson had full practices again on Friday and will play without any problems. Brian Westbrook has practiced the last two days and is now expected to play and has been added into the projections. This does more to negate McCoy's promise than to make Westbrook an attractive start since he'll share work and is a risk to rely on.

Early Update: Both Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson did not practice on Wednesday to rest but had a full day on Thursday and both will play with no limitations.

Brian Westbrook had a full practice on Thursday and if he has no setbacks I will be adding him back in after Friday practices. He'll be a risky play in any case since his concussive effects could return even during the game.

This is a must watch game with big implications. The Eagles come off their home loss to the Cowboys and now trail them by one game in the NFC East. The Eagles are 2-1 in road games though none of those opponents have a winning record. The Chargers rise to 5-3 with their win in New York over the Giants and draw to within one game of the Broncos in the AFC West and play in Denver following this week. This is a big game for both teams since a loss drops them further from contention in their respective divisions.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-3))
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @CAR 38-10 -2.5 43.5
2 NO 22-48 -3 46.5
3 KC 34-14 -9.5 42.5
4 BYE -    
5 TB 33-14 -16 42
6 @OAK 9-13 -14 40.5
7 @WAS 27-17 -7 37.5
8 NYG 40-17 -1 43
9 DAL 16-20 -3 47.5
10 @SD - +2.5 47
11 @CHI - - -
12 WAS - - -
13 @ATL - - -
14 @NYG - - -
15 SF - - -
16 DEN - - -
17 @DAL - - -
PHI at SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Donovan McNabb     230,2
RB Leonard Weaver 30
RB Brian Westbrook 40 20  
RB LeSean McCoy 30 20  
TE Brent Celek   60,1  
WR DeSean Jackson   60  
WR Jason Avant   30  
WR Jeremy Maclin   50,1  
PK David Akers 2 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Eagles were flying high until last week when the Cowboys squeezed past them for the NFC East lead. Beating the Giants the previous week is looking a little less impressive as well since the Giants are on a four game losing slide. Now is when the Eagles have to show up big because the easiest part of their schedule is over and they have four of the next five games on the road. This will easily be the best team they have yet faced away from Philadelphia.

Quarterback: Donovan McNabb has only played in two road games in the last two months and only combined for one touchdown in those games against the Raiders (a loss) and the Redskins. Both have very good secondaries though and the Chargers have been much less effective stopping the pass. In San Diego, opposing quarterbacks have only thrown for four touchdowns but the Chargers have faced Joe Flacco, Chad Henne, Kyle Orton and JaMarcus Russell as visitors - not exactly roll call for the top ten quarterbacks.

McNabb has been inconsistent and that makes his projections always more challenging and potentially less reliable. I am going to project for two passing scores but that has to be the high end of what he most likely will do and could be a bit much depending on game situation.

Running Backs: Brian Westbrook was held out last week because of persistent headaches stemming from his concussion. HC Andy Reid said that Westbrook would not play until he was past the effects of his concussion so I will hold him out of the projections this week unless he is cleared.

LeSean McCoy started the last two games and produced decent results though both were at home. He gained 82 yards and a score on 11 carries against the Giants and then turned in 54 yards on 13 runs against the Cowboys with five receptions for 61 yards. McCoy has only produced marginal stats in road games but has not started one until this Sunday.

Leonard Weaver has also seen notable work with Westbrook out and gained 82 yards on 11 carries and one touchdown against the Giants and then had eight more rushing attempts against the Cowboys and gained 33 yards.

The Chargers at home have not allowed more than 79 yards to any rusher and given up just four scores over the four home games. They have also seen opponents use their running backs as receivers in almost every week which bodes well for McCoy. The Eagles do not often score via the run and Westbrook is out anyway. Expect decent to good yardage for McCoy thanks to his receptions.

Wide Receivers: DeSean Jackson had a touchdown in Washington three weeks ago but that was the only time a wideout has caught a score away from Philly. Jackson had nice yardage efforts in Oakland and Washington though he only produced 29 yards on two catches against the Cowboys. Jeremy Maclin continues to churn out around 40 or 50 yards in all but the easiest games and has been a lesser factor in road games.

The Chargers secondary has been very good this year against wide receivers and allowed just five touchdowns to the position and never more than 58 yards to a visiting wideout. I like one passing score to a wide receiver this week and that would most likely favor Maclin or Avant since non-primary wideouts have done most of the scoring so far. None of these wideouts seem likely to turn in much yardage this week.

Tight Ends: McNabb still considers Brent Celek as his security blanket and preferred target in the endzone. Celek has scored in each of the last two games along with solid, consistent yardage each game. The Chargers have also been weaker against tight ends in those few instances that they have faced a decent tight end.

Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 8 17 17 9 3 2
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 8 27 3 20 25 14

San Diego Chargers (5-3)
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @OAK 24-20 -9.5 43
2 BAL 26-31 -5 40.5
3 MIA 23-13 -6 42
4 @PIT 28-38 +6.5 43
5 BYE - - -
6 DEN 23-34 -3.5 44
7 @KC 37-7 -5.5 44
8 OAK 24-16 -16 41.5
9 @NYG 21-20 -4 47.5
10 PHI - -2.5 47
11 @DEN - - -
12 KC - - -
13 @CLE - - -
14 @DAL - - -
15 CIN - - -
16 @TEN - - -
17 WAS - - -
SD vs PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers     290,2
RB Ladainian Tomlinson 50,1 10  
TE Antonio Gates   70,1  
WR Malcolm Floyd   60  
WR Vincent Jackson   90,1  
WR Legedu Naanee   40  
PK Nate Kaeding 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The win over the Giants in New York could prove to be a turning point for the Chargers. The Broncos lost again this week and now are only one game ahead with a trip to Denver looming in week 11. It will be tempting to look past this game but any loss is a major setback right now. If the Chargers can beat the Eagles this week and take down the Broncos and Cowboys in their stadiums then they'll likely win the AFC West. The Chargers are now past the worst part of their schedule and could be one of the surprises in the AFC this year.

Quarterback: Philip Rivers has scored in every game this year but he has been more productive in road games with ten touchdowns versus only five in home games. His yardage has been no less than 250 while in San Diego. His last three road efforts - @PIT, @KC and @NYG each had three passing touchdowns so Rivers has been not only highly productive in some games this year, they have been mostly the recent games as the Chargers are getting better as the season progresses.

The Eagles have allowed at least one touchdown to every opponent since week one and most have very good yardage. Tony Romo and Drew Brees both topped 300 yards against them. Considering that the Eagles are very good against the run, this game is favorable for Rivers to post at least good stats and it could grow big potentially.

Running Backs: The player who has been wearing LaDainian Tomlinson's uniform comes off one of the worst games of the year with only 22 yards on 12 carries in New York. But back at home Tomlinson has been better in his two games in San Diego this year. He scored twice against the Raiders and had 56 yards on 18 carries and 70 yards on 18 runs in the previous game against the Broncos.

Darren Sproles still has a minimal role and not even enough to be considered as change of pace. Rivers is throwing 35+ times in most games but the rushing attack has rarely been called on more than 20 times in a game.

The Eagles have been very good against the run this year and not allowed more than 86 yards to any runner. That fits into the Tomlinson-Lite we are getting used to this season. I like Tomlinson to get moderate yardage and a shot at one rushing touchdown.

Wide Receivers: Vincent Jackson continues to be the newest stud in the league and now has scored in each of the last four games including twice in New York just last week. He's been a lock to have a good game and is a disappointment when it is not a great effort. He has truly stepped up into the top ten this year and probably top five. Malcolm Floyd only has one touchdown to his credit. Chris Chambers had one as well. Jackson already has seven. Jackson has been nearly unstoppable despite being the only notable wideout on the team.

The Eagles have been outstanding against wide receivers this year and given up just six touchdowns to the position. You still have to like Jackson to score every week at home. His toughest game so far was last week in New York and he had two scores in that matchup. The Eagles should manage to at least hold him from getting monster yardage.

Tight Ends: Antonio Gates has been rock solid with at least 50 or 60 yards each week but he still has scored in only one game thanks mostly to Vincent Jackson acting like a vacuum in the endzone. But the Eagles have been very week against tight ends and given up five touchdowns in the last five weeks to the position. I like the chance that Gates finally scores again this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points SD 7 24 15 7 5 9
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 12 8 8 31 9 11

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