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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Bye Week
Sunday Late

Prediction: TB 13 , MIA 27

Late Update: Bryant still did not practice on Friday and he is listed as doubtful and is not expected to play. I have removed him from the projections. Clayton had another full day and will play.

Early Update: Antonio Bryant has been held out of practice this week because of his knee but has not yet been ruled out. I may update it tomorrow but he has minimal projections and significant risk anyway. Michael Clayton was held out to rest his knee but returned for some work on Thursday. This is probably not an optimal way to go to Miami.

The Buccaneers come off their first win of the season but hit the road where the league has not been kind. The Dolphins return home after losing to New England and drawing no consolation from being the best 3-5 team. Hard to imagine the Buccaneers will string two wins together.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DAL 21-34 +5 39
2 @BUF 20-33 +4 41
3 NYG 0-24 +7 44
4 @WAS 13-16 +7 37
5 @PHI 14-33 +16 42.5
6 CAR 21-28 +3 39
7 NE 7-35 +15.5 44.5
8 BYE - - -
9 GB 38-28 +10 43.5
10 @MIA - +9.5 44
11 NO - - -
12 @ATL - - -
13 @CAR - - -
14 NYJ - - -
15 @SEA - - -
16 @NO - - -
17 ATL - - -
TB at MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 20   160,1
RB Derrick Ward 30 10  
RB Carnell Williams 40    
TE Kellen Winslow Jr.   60,1  
WR Antonio Bryant 20
WR Michael Clayton   20  
WR Sammie Stroughter   30  
PK Conner Barth 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: All it took was a returned kick for a score, a touchdown from a blocked punt and intercepting the ball at the 5-yard line for the Buccaneers to post some fast and easy points enroute to a win. But take nothing away from the overall team effort. Without Antonio Bryant and starting a rookie quarterback, the Buccaneers finally found their first win and just in time for the tougher part of their schedule.

Quarterback: The rookie Josh Freeman took his first NFL start and completed 14 of 31 passes for 205 yards and three touchdowns with only one interception against the visiting Packers. He also took off for 20 yards on four runs and overall, had a wildly successful first showing in a game that the Buccaneers actually won. He showed poise and even brought the Buccaneers on a comeback to win the game. He won't do that every week of course, but for a team short of positives

The Dolphins at home have always allowed at least one passing score but only once were there two and Freeman is not likely to match what Peyton Manning did there. Freeman is still largely an unknown and obviously a raw talent so expecting more than a one score, sub-200 yard game is optimistic.

Running Backs: Carnell Williams is the primary back still and against the Packers he took 16 carries for 56 yards while Derrick Ward settled for just four runs for five yards. The previous game saw them split carries with 12 rush attempts each but before that Williams again had 16 carries to only one for Ward. There is no consistency here other than it really doesn't matter since none of the backs are reliable enough to warrant fantasy consideration. Ward scored on a pass last week but has only one other touchdown from back in week one. They are just far too unproductive and erratic to depend on.

The Dolphins have been very good against the run and while they have allowed five rushing scores, they have also faced a daunting schedule filled with far tougher foes than the Bucs. No reason to expect more than minimal yardage by either back.

Wide Receivers: Freeman was not that successful connecting with his wide receivers last Sunday and the best was Maurice Stovall who replaced Antonio Bryant. Stovall had three catches for 46 yards while Sammie Stroughter only had 19 yards on his three receptions but scored once. Michael Clayton played with a bad wrist but had no catches. Whether Bryant returns this week or not remains to be seen but he has a chronic problem with swelling and will never be a safe play. I will include him for some minimal yardage for now but would not recommend using him

The Dolphins secondary is about average against receivers but this unit has a long way to go to reach average. Minimal yardage for all involved is the only reasonable projection.

Tight Ends: A nice development was that Freeman did look for Kellen Winslow and threw to him five times, completing four for 57 yards and one touchdown. That made Winslow and Stovall the two main recipients of passes though Winslow caught more and did more with his. That should be a good thing too since the Dolphins have been soft against tight ends. Winslow won't have a big game here but you can still expect at least a decent showing. Six tight ends have already had 50 or more yards against them and twice they have allowed over 100 yards to the position and both were in Miami.

Gaining Fantasy Points TB 23 30 30 6 32 10
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 27 5 15 22 32 22

Miami Dolphins (3-5)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @ATL 7-19 +4 43.5
2 IND 23-27 +3 42
3 @SD 13-23 +6 42
4 BUF 38-10 +2.5 37
5 NYJ 31-27 +1.5 36.5
6 BYE - - -
7 NO 34-46 +6 48
8 @NYJ 30-25 +3.5 40
9 @NE 17-27 +10.5 47
10 TB - -9.5 44
11 @CAR - - -
12 @BUF - - -
13 NE - - -
14 @JAC - - -
15 @TEN - - -
16 HOU - - -
17 PIT - - -
MIA vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne     160,1
RB Ronnie Brown 110,2    
RB Ricky Williams 70 20  
TE Anthony Fasano   20  
WR Brian Hartline   30,1  
WR Greg Camarillo   30  
WR Davone Bess   30  
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins played the Pats even for a while before giving in to the magic of Randy Moss and this week represents a small oasis for the Dolphins. Perhaps eye of the storm may be more accurate since they just finished two tough road games, play at home on Sunday and then head back out for two more road games. There is no reason why the Fins should not win this game and while the rest of the schedule has a lot of challenges, the Fins could step up and end with a decent season. The toughest part of the schedule is now over but the damage has been done. Short of almost winning out, the Fins season is a done deal and they still have not won a road game outside of their own division.

Quarterback: The Dolphins gave rookie Pat White his most work of the year when he ran the wildcat six times against the Patriots but while those gained 45 yards for him, it was shut down in the second half. Chad Henne is back at home this week where has been marginally better with a high game of 241 yards but that came against the Jets. Henne should manage a score this week since the Bucs have allowed 18 passing scores already this season but when Henne does throw for a touchdown it will only be the fifth score on the year and his first against a non-divisional opponent.

The Fins should take this game without resorting to the pass enough to make Henne have any fantasy value.

Running Backs: No doubt this will be a very nice game for Ronnie Brown who has scored in every home matchup and all but the Saints let him score twice. His two 100+ yard efforts were at home as well. Ricky Williams followed his normal trend by having a score on the road last week but at home he has been much less likely to score other than the freak three touchdowns against the Saints. He had just one touchdown in the other three games in Miami.

The Buccaneers bring in a horrible rushing defense that has allowed eight rushing touchdowns and six runners have gained at least 90 yards on them. Expect a very solid game from Brown at home and enough from Williams to give him fantasy value this week as well.

Wide Receivers: There has yet to be any fantasy significance to this unit that has scored only twice this year and recorded only one 100 yard effort in eight games. Brian Hartline has stepped up in recent weeks and had 94 yards on three catches against the Saints but then settled for only 18 yards on one catch in New England. Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo just chug along with minimal yardage every week. No reason to expect a change this week.

Tight Ends: Anthony Fasano is the tight end you get for a bye week when you have only one dollar to spend and are late to the waiver wire. He has one score and minimal yardage this year.

Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 28 3 22 27 12 7
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 30 24 30 16 20 16

The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
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