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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 12
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thanksgiving
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Monday
*updated

Prediction: CAR 17, NYJ 24

The Panthers have a 4-6 record and are 2-3 on the road this year. The Jets are 4-6 and on a three game losing streak after starting the year 3-0. The Jets are 2-3 at home. This is a coin flip game since neither team has a passing attack that has not hurt more than helped their team and while the Panthers run better, the Jets play better defense and have a decent rushing game as well. This could go either way but stick with the home team and the better defense.

Carolina Panthers (4-7)
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 PHI 10-38 +2.5 43.5
2 @ATL 20-28 +6 43
3 @DAL 7-21 +9 46
4 BYE - -3.5 37.5
5 WAS 20-17 -5 38
6 @TB 28-21 -3 39
7 BUF 9-20 -7 37
8 @ARI 34-21 10 43.5
9 @NO 20-30 +14 52
10 ATL 28-19 +1 43.5
11 MIA 17-24 -3.5 42
12 @NYJ   +3 41.5
13 TB - - -
14 @NE - - -
15 MIN - - -
16 @NYG - - -
17 NO - - -
CAR at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Delhomme     180
RB DeAngelo Williams 80,1 30  
RB Jonathan Stewart 50,1    
WR Steve Smith   40  
WR Muhsin Muhammad   50  
WR Dwayne Jarrett   30  
PK John Kasay 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Panthers have only a home game against the Bucs that will see them favored in a remaining game that includes hosting the Vikings and Saints (two best NFC teams) and playing in potentially bad weather in New York and New England. It has been a rough season that is not going to improve before it ends. On the plus side, maybe the Saints won't care about week 17.

Quarterback: Jake Delhomme's erratic play saw him only complete 19 of 42 passes against the Dolphins and he was sacked a season high four times but Delhomme has settled down in most games to where he is either a positive or he just doesn't contribute much. His season opened with 13 interceptions in the first six games but he had not thrown any more until last week. One glaring problem - he really has no receiver besides Steve Smith.

The Jets have been good against the pass and no visitor has thrown for more than one touchdown or 221 passing yards against them. That fits neatly into the mediocre stats of Delhomme.

Running Backs: DeAngelo Williams was on the injury report last week but even he says he is not sure why. He gained 122 yards on 13 carries against the Dolphins and has been above 100 total yards in each of the last six games and scored five times. Jonathan Stewart has been less about yardage since he rarely catches the ball and always has fewer carries than Williams but he has scored six times this year and had three efforts top 80 yards including games against the Cards and Falcons with two scores.

The Jets have been softer against the run lately but in New York have only allowed two rushing touchdowns over the last five road games. Only Maurice Jones-Drew had more than 100 yards there which bodes poorly for the dynamic duo. I like one rushing score here that should favor Williams. The split will keep either from a big yardage game unless Williams has a long gainer.

Wide Receivers: Steve Smith has been much better in recent games with four scores over the last four games - his only on the year. But he still has only rarely had more than 70 yards in a game and he is the only wideout with any measure of success. No doubt he will do a "meet and greet" with Darrelle Revis this week which should scare Delhomme into not throwing to him. That leaves this unit with minimal value this week.

it's either Smith or no one. And the Jets can handle a one man receiver crew.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 29 4 27 16 28 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 3 14 3 4 6 30


New York Jets (4-6)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF 13-16 --9.5 37
7 @OAK 38-0 -6 34
8 MIA 25-30 -3.5 40
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC 22-24 -7 41
11 @NE 14-31 +10.5 45
12 CAR - -3 41.5
13 @BUF - - -
14 @TB - - -
15 ATL - - -
16 @IND - - -
17 CIN - - -
NYJ vs CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez     160,1
RB Thomas Jones 110,1    
TE Dustin Keller   30,1  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   50  
WR Braylon Edwards   40  
WR Brad Smith   20  
PK Jay Feely 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Jets are on a three game losing skid but in most matchups it is a close, competitive game that ends up lost often because of the inexperienced passing of the Jets. That will improve as time goes on and HC Rex Ryan is taking a personal interest in the development of Mark Sanchez. Defensive injuries have also hurt the Jets but this should be the best chance for a win in a remaining game.

I like the chance for a defensive score this week.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez started the year as a wunderkind but soon enough turned into a rookie who has now evolved into a rookie with an interception problem. Sort of like the normal first year only backwards. Sanchez has thrown six picks in the last two games and has 165 interceptions against ten passing scores. He has added to his value by rushing in a score on three different occasions but he locked into sub 200-yard games in all but three weeks.

The Panthers feature an above average secondary that has been very good against wide receivers. Look for Sanchez to remain below 200 yards again with a chance for one score at most.

Running Backs: The old man Thomas Jones continues to rumble on every week with at least 100 rushing yards and/or a touchdown in each of the last seven weeks. Shonn Greene has been used sparingly since his week seven explosion and has only offered minimal relief for Jones. As effective as Jones has been in virtually every game, there has been no need to call up Greene.

The Panthers defensive failing has been against the run and have allowed 14 touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. Just last week saw Ricky Williams slicing them up for 119 yards and two rushing scores and a third one via a reception. Expect a solid game here yet again from Jones who should top the century mark and score at least once.

Wide Receivers: Jerricho Cotchery remains the primary wideout and scored in both of the most recent games with over 70 yards in all but one game this year. He only has three touchdowns on the year but remains the preferred wideout by Sanchez. Braylon Edwards still figures in though less consistently than Cotchery.

The problem this week is that Sanchez has an interception problem and the Carolina corners have ben outstanding against wide receivers. They have only allowed three passing scores to wideouts and these Jets are not that good. Figure on marginal yardage and no score this week.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller has been solid for the last month and has one score in that time. He is the best chance for a touchdown catch and has the confidence of Sanchez. The Panthers have allowed four scores to the position this year and are measurably weaker against the position than wide receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 25 15 22 24 13 28
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 9 27 2 11 13 31

The Huddle
WEEK 12
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thanksgiving
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Monday
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Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
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