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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: JAC 20, SF 24

This is a coin flip matchup with the Jaguars on a three game winning streak and at 6-4 could be in the playoff hunt but are only 2-3 on the road. The 49ers are just 4-6 on the season and 3-2 at home and still trying to kick start the offense.

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @IND 12-14 +6.5 44.5
2 ARI 17-31 -3 43
3 @HOU 31-24 +4 46.5
4 TEN 37-17 +3 41.5
5 @SEA 0-41 -3 40
6 STL 23-20 -9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 @TEN 13-30 +3 44
9 KC 24-21 -6.5 42
10 @NYJ 24-22 +6.5 41
11 BUF 18-15 -9 41
12 @SF - +3 41.5
13 HOU - - -
14 MIA - - -
15 IND - - -
16 @NE - - -
17 @CLE - - -
JAX at SF Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     200
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 100,2 20  
TE Marcedes Lewis   20  
WR Torry Holt   50  
WR Mike Sims-Walker   60  
WR Mike Thomas   30  
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: It's not like the Jaguars are stomping anyone but three weeks in a row they have won but three points or less while facing teams no better than these 49ers. The Jags still live and die by what Maurice Jones-Drew does and what the secondary gives away each week but winning the close ones are always nice. Taking three in a row gets the Jaguars out of a hole and back on the track to battle for a postseason berth.

Quarterback: David Garrard continues to chug along and while he has scored in the last three games, he has never had more than one touchdown or more than 264 yards which is very high side for Mr. Garrard. Most notable is that he only has one passing score in his five away games though twice he did rush in a touchdown. He has not passed for more than 221 yards away from home either.

Playing in San Francisco won't be good for his numbers since the 49ers have only allowed three passing scores in the five games played there and two belonged to Matt Ryan. This looks much more like another whiff by Garrard with no passing scores.

Running Backs: Maurice Jones-Drew hosted the Bills last week and their #32 rushing defense and yet only produced 66 yards on 25 carries with one touchdown and four catches for 18 yards. That was his worst showing in five weeks when it seemed like a set-up to be his best. He was coming off a 123 yard effort in New York against the Jets (though they were missing a nose tackle).

This week should be back in the saddle for the franchise. Jones-Drew faces a defense that allowed Michael Turner three scores and 97 yards there and Chris Johnson ran for 135 yards and two scores. Even Ryan Grant rushed for 129 yards and a score last week. No reason to bench Jones-Drew this week. Or any week for that matter.

Wide Receivers: Mike Sims-Walker continues his surprising season with is sixth score on the year and third in a row though notable is that five came in home games and just one was away from Jacksonville. His yardage has a serious drop on the road as well where he averages only 35 yards per game and yet at home he has never had less than 91 yards and has scored in all but one game. The one home game he did not score he had 120 yards against the Rams. No other wideout for the Jaguars really matter and not one of them has ever scored besides Sims-Walker.

Look for the road problem to again rear its head and depress the receiver numbers. Sims-Walker always has upside but realistically he has always come up short in road games. Only one wideout has scored in San Francisco anyway.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis has been a part of the passing game each week though rarely much and has not scored since week four. Expect a mediocre showing here against a better than average defense against tight ends.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 17 11 14 25 29 32
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 17 24 22 13 29 22

San Francisco 49ers (4-6)
Homefield: Monster Park
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @ARI 20-16 +6 46
2 SEA 23-10 -1.5 39
3 @MIN 24-27 +7 40.5
4 STL 35-0 -10 37.5
5 ATL 10-45 -2.5 41
6 BYE - - -
7 @HOU 21-24 +3 44.5
8 @IND 14-18 +13 45
9 TEN 27-34 -4 41
10 CHI 10-6 -4 43
11 @GB 24-30 +6 42
12 JAC - -3 41.5
13 @SEA - - -
14 ARI - - -
15 @PHI - - -
16 DET - - -
17 @STL - - -
SF vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith     250,2
RB Frank Gore 70,1 40  
TE Vernon Davis   60,1  
WR Josh Morgan   30  
WR Jason Hill   30  
WR Michael Crabtree   90,1  
PK Joe Nedney 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The 49ers continue to struggle and have lost five of their last six games. All but one loss came by a touchdown or less which only serves to remind the team that they cannot seem to quite turn the corner. After getting pummeled in the first half in Green Bay, the 49ers switched to a shotgun formation for the second half and Alex Smith threw for three scores. The 49ers have already come to terms with the fact that Michael Crabtree is the only wideout that matters and we could be seeing more of that shotgun since it helped to serve him up his first NFL score.

Quarterback: As noted, Alex Smith once again had a frantic second half comeback that fell short as it did in Houston but he ended with three touchdown for the second time. He has thrown for multiple scores in three of his five starts and should have another good week against one of the weakest secondaries in the league.

The Jaguars have allowed at least one passing score to all road opponents and as many as four scores with high yardage for the taking. Since Frank Gore should be more challenged this week, expect a decent to good game here by Smith.

Running Backs: Frank Gore was held to only 59 rushing yards last week on seven carries and 42 yards came on his first run. The 49ers were forced to abandon the run in Green Bay and left Gore with his worst showing in a month though he did tack on a touchdown via a short reception. Gore has scored in each of the last four games and was having well over 100 total yards in each until last week.

The Jaguars have been generally good against the run but less so on the road and in recent weeks have been gashed by Chris Johnson (24-228, 2 TD) and Thomas Jones (21-77, 1 TD). Look for a decent showing here by Gore and his standard one touchdown.

Wide Receivers: The 49ers are starting to evolve into one of those teams with a superstar wideout and not much else on the outside (think Atlanta). Michael Crabtree has finally scored his first touchdown and had 77 yards on four receptions in Chicago. He remains the most targeted player behind Vernon Davis and by now Josh Morgan and Jason Hill do little more than hopefully block down field.

The Jaguars are horrible against wideouts allowing nine touchdowns to the position in just five road games and twice allowed receivers to have two scores. There is an excellent chance that Crabtree nets his second touchdown of the season here and if he had two scores he'd only be the fourth one to do that against the Jags this year. The other wideouts are too inconsistent to consider but could surprise as well.

Tight Ends: Vernon Davis comes off his best game of the year when he had six receptions for 108 yards and a score in Chicago. That gives Davis eight touchdowns on the season and two games over 100 yards. The Jaguars have been solid against tight ends but largely because their opponents rarely used them and the wideouts were so successful anyway. They have allowed only one score to a tight end (Owen Daniels, 5-38) but Davis can make it two. He is used more as a wideout than a tight end.

Gaining Fantasy Points SF 22 21 30 2 23 19
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 9 31 6 25 20

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