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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 12
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thanksgiving
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Monday
*updated

Prediction: MIA 20, BUF 13

The Dolphins are on a two game winning streak at at 5-5 remain two games behind the Patriots but are keeping at least wildcard hopes alive. The Fins are 2-3 on the road. The Bills have lost their last three games, a head coach and squandered the only decent game by Terrell Owens last week. The Bills are only 1-3 at home.

The Dolphins already won 38-10 when the Bills visited back in week four.

Miami Dolphins (5-5)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @ATL 7-19 +4 43.5
2 IND 23-27 +3 42
3 @SD 13-23 +6 42
4 BUF 38-10 +2.5 37
5 NYJ 31-27 +1.5 36.5
6 BYE - - -
7 NO 34-46 +6 48
8 @NYJ 30-25 +3.5 40
9 @NE 17-27 +10.5 47
10 TB 25-23 -10 43
11 @CAR 24-17 +3 43.5
12 @BUF - -3 40
13 NE - - -
14 @JAC - - -
15 @TEN - - -
16 HOU - - -
17 PIT - - -
MIA at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne     130
RB Ricky Williams 100,1 20  
RB Lex Hilliard 40,1    
TE Anthony Fasano   20  
WR Brian Hartline   30  
WR Greg Camarillo   20  
WR Davone Bess   30  
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: Losing NT Jason Ferguson will hurt the rushing defense for the Dolphins and with upcoming games against the Jaguars and Titans, stopping the run will be very important. The Dolphins host the Patriots next week but there's no sense for a 5-5 to look past anyone, much less a road game to a divisional foe. The loss of Ronnie Brown for the rest of the season (yet again) appears to be compensated for by Ricky Williams but one game in and Ricky was already wearing down.

Quarterback: Chad Henne remains just a game manager and the absence of Ronnie Brown has not yet been felt. When it does, Henne has to take on a bigger role than just throwing for one score and 175 yards each week while trying not to get intercepted. After eight starts, he only has six touchdowns and only three times topped 200 passing yards.

Henne threw for 115 yards and one score when the Bills visited back in week four.

No reason to expect anything but more of the same against a well known opponent. Henne may throw a bit more but the results won't end up with much fantasy relevance.

Running Backs: Ronnie Brown is on the injured reserve now and that opens the door for second-year running back Lex Hilliard who had four carries for 24 yards last week and was impressive in his brief playing time. His role could be expanded and perhaps greatly if Ricky Williams is wearing down or gets injured. Williams had his best game in years when he ran 22 times for 119 yards and two scores and added a third touchdown on his two catches for 19 yards. He was nicked up at the end and sat out the final drive but is expected to be fine this week.

Williams and Brown combined for 200 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills in week four.

This is not a bad spot to start Lex Hilliard since Williams cannot get too heavy a load and the Fins are facing the #32 rushing attack. This should be a rock solid game for Williams if not another monster and have enough left over that Hilliard might have some appreciable numbers as well. He's a big risk of course but this is the worst rush defense in the league.

Wide Receivers: With only two scores all year and facing the toughest team on quarterbacks and wideouts, expect minimal numbers. No need to shift expectations on this one. The last meeting had no wideout with more than 42 yards and Brian Hartline scored with only two catches for 17 yards.

Tight Ends: Anthony Fasano has minimal value at best. No fantasy start here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 30 3 25 27 8 4
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 1 32 1 19 20 26


Buffalo Bills (3-7)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @NE 24-25 +10.5 47
2 TB 33-20 -4 41
3 NO 7-27 +5.5 52.5
4 @MIA 10-38 -2.5 37
5 CLE 3-6 -6 40.5
6 @NYJ 16-13 +9.5 37
7 @CAR 20-9 +7 37
8 HOU 10-31 -3.5 42
9 BYE - - -
10 @TEN 17-41 +9 41
11 @JAC 15-18 +9 41
12 MIA - +3 40
13 NYJ - - -
14 @KC - - -
15 NE - - -
16 @ATL - - -
17 IND - - -
BUF vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick     180,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 40    
RB Fred Jackson 40 10  
WR Lee Evans   50  
WR Terrell Owens   60,1  
WR Josh Reed   30  
PK Rian Lindell 2 FG 1 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Bills came close in Jacksonville but the lack of offense continues to doom the team that has not scored more than 20 points in a game since week two. The rest of the schedule remains brutal and now Marshawn Lynch is banged up. This team has not given up yet by any means but lacks the firepower and cohesion to compete in most games.

Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like an actual NFL quarterback last week when he threw for 297 yards and a touchdown against the bad Jaguars secondary though 98 yards and the score all came on one play. In three starts before last week he had only surpassed 123 passing yards in a game and has not managed more than one score despite playing against the secondaries of the Texans, Titans and Jaguars.

In week four, Trent Edwards passed for 192 yards and one score in Miami. Consider that high side of what to expect from Fitzpatrick.

Running Backs: Marshawn Lynch is considered "day to day" after leaving the Jaguars game with a bad shoulder. An MRI did not show any damage so there is a chance that he returns this week. I will project for a limited Lynch and update as warranted. Facing the Fins without Ferguson in the defensive line will help but it wound make a stud out of a dud like Lynch regardless.

The Bills have produced exactly one rushing touchdown this year. Only one. Fred Jackson may take a heavier load this week if Lynch is still nursing his shoulder injury but regardless, this unit is nothing to pay attention to in fantasy terms. In week four in Miami, Lynch ran for four yards on eight carries. Jackson helped out with 42 yards on nine runs so it was a total of 46 yards on 17 carries in Miami.

No need to overthink it, expect mediocrity at best from this group who apparently excel at it and nothing else.

Wide Receivers: So Terrell Owens owners had to wait 11 weeks but were finally rewarded when Owens caught nine passes for 197 yards and one score against the worst secondary in the NFL. 98 yards and the score came on just one play. And it left Lee Evans with only one catch for 15 yards. But for one shining moment, the Bills got a payback on housing Owens.

Back in week four, Owens had three catches for 60 yards in Miami while Evans caught two passes for 60 yards as well. Neither scored of course. I am going to award Owens with the one touchdown catch but there is low confidence on it. And even lower on anyone else. At least Fitzpatrick has gained some confidence with Owens now and should throw the tighter passes his way.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 27 30 21 30 17 13
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 24 6 13 27 32 18

The Huddle
WEEK 12
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thanksgiving
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Monday
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