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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 12
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thanksgiving
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Monday
*updated

Prediction: SEA 20, STL 13

Update: Steven Jackson has not practiced this week and that is a really bad thing for the Rams who are already without Marc Bulger. They have not ruled him out yet and he is only listed as questionable, HC Steve Spagnuolo says that Jackson can potentially play even without practices because by now he is the only weapon the Rams have. I am lowering his projections along with the whole team because he is a huge risk. Check the pregame inactives to see if he is playing.

Julius Jones is still feeling pain from his lung injury and is considered a game time decision. I am not adding him into the projections.

The Seahawks are 3-7 and on a two game losing streak with a road record of 0-5. The Rams are just 1-9 though and are 0-5 at home. The Seahawks beat the Rams 28-0 in the season opener. This is a tough game to call. The Seahawks are favored but have never lost by less than 11 points away from Seattle. Rams just lost Marc Bulger though. This is just a mess of a game.

Seattle Seahawks (3-7)
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 STL 28-0 -7.5 37
2 @SF 10-23 +1.5 39.5
3 CHI 19-25 +2 37
4 @IND 17-34 +10 43.5
5 JAC 41-0 +3 40
6 ARI 3-27 -3 47
7 BYE - - -
8 @DAL 17-38 +10 46
9 DET 32-20 -10 43
10 @ARI 20-31 +9 47
11 @MIN 9-35 +10.5 47
12 @STL - -3 42.5
13 SF - - -
14 @HOU - - -
15 TB - - -
16 @GB - - -
17 TEN - - -
SEA at STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck     240,2
RB Justin Forsett 60 40,1  
TE John Carlson   30  
WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh   50,1  
WR Deion Branch   30  
WR Nate Burleson   80  
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: Playing for pride still has not resulted in any wins away from Seattle but this is about as kind as any road game will be. The Rams are without Marc Bulger and Seattle already mopped Qwest Field with them to open the season and that was before the Rams lost several players to injury. The team has made almost no strides to improvement this year.

Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck has done little this year since his home game against the Jaguars in week five. He has thrown for only four scores over the last five games though his yardage has been 250+ in three of the last four games. Hasselbeck opened the season with 279 passing yards and three touchdowns against these Rams but has been much less effective on the road than at home.

The Rams have given up ten touchdowns over the five home stands and all but one team had two or more touchdowns. Look for one score from Hasselbeck and likely two since he's already been so successful against them earlier this year and the Rams are not improved.

Running Backs: Julius Jones has damaged ribs and bled from his lungs two Sundays ago so while he is expected to start practicing this week, I will not project for him pending full practices and positive reports. Justin Forsett has scored in each of the last two weeks which ties him with Jones with two rushing scores. Both of the last two games were also on the road. Forsett turned in an impressive 123 yards on 17 carries in Arizona but was held to only nine yards on nine runs in Minnesota. He added 80 yards on eight receptions there as well.

Jones rushed for 117 yards and one touchdown on 19 carries versus the Rams this year.

No arguing that the Rams have a weaker rushing defense than most but at home have only allowed on runner to top 100 rush yards and the string of visitors - GB, MIN, IND, NO and ARI - have been brutal and all more challenging than the Seahawks should be.

Wide Receivers: The oddity about this unit is that while both Nate Burleson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh have both turned in good games this year, they never do it in the same week. Either one has a big game or the other but never both. Occasionally neither will. Burleson had 100 yards on six catches last week but Houshmandzedeh only collected four passes for 36 yards. The previous week, Houshmandzadeh had 165 yards and Burleson had no catches. Burelson remains the better bet for a decent game but when he does he apparently turns off Houshmandzadeh.

Burleson scored once on his seven catches for 74 yards versus the Rams this season. Houshmandzadeh only had four catches for 48 yards.

The fact that the two wideouts never get in synch makes it harder to project since the Rams secondary usually allows both starting wideouts to have good games. I am going to favor Houshmandzadeh for the score but the confidence is lower and both wideouts make mediocre plays this week since one will likely had a bad game.

Tight Ends: John Carlson continues to see his role as a receiver shrink and last week he was held without a catch for the first time this year. His role as a blocker is expanding and his days as a receiver are getting fewer.

Carlson opened his season with six receptions for 95 yards and two scores against the Rams. He has one score in the last nine games since and rarely more than 40 yards.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 14 12 13 22 10 22
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 27 28 20 24 4 29


St. Louis Rams (1-9)
Homefield: Edward Jones Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @SEA 0-28 +7.5 37
2 @WAS 7-9 +10 37
3 GB 17-36 +6.5 41
4 @SF 0-35 +10 37.5
5 MIN 10-38 +10 41
6 @JAC 20-23 +9.5 43
7 IND 6-42 +14 45
8 @DET 17-10 +3.5 43.5
9 BYE - - -
10 NO 23-28 +14 51
11 ARI 13-21 +9.5 46.5
12 SEA - +3 42.5
13 @CHI - - -
14 @TEN - - -
15 HOU - - -
16 @ARI - - -
17 SF - - -
STL vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Kyle Boller     180,1
RB Steven Jackson 50    
TE Randy McMichael   20  
WR Donnie Avery   70,1  
WR Brandon Gibson   50  
WR Ruvel Martin   10  
PK Josh Brown 2 FG 1 XP  

Pregame Notes: This could have been a good spot for a win but the loss of Marc Bulger only makes matters worse and the Rams have scored more than 17 points in only two games this year. Steven Jackson has been the lone saving grace for the offense while the lack of defense has doomed most games by halftime. There is precious little good to come out of this season for the Rams other than a heroic effort by Steven Jackson.

Quarterback: Marc Bulger suffered a fracture in the upper part of the tibia and will be out at least three to six weeks. That leaves Kyle Boller as the starter again but he only had three games played this year and scored in just one of them while never throwing for more than 209 yards. That's not much different than Bulger though.

Bulger passed for 191 yards and no scores in Seattle this year.

The Seahawks are terrible in the secondary and on the road have allowed 12 passing touchdowns in the last four games away from Seattle. No team had less than two. The yardage tended to be very good as well. While Boller is hard to rely on, there is no arguing that he has an advatnageous situation this week.

Running Backs: HC Steve Spagnuolo revealed Monday that Steven Jackson suffered a "muscle strain" in his back during the Rams' Week 11 loss. He is still expected to play and I will update his status if warranted. Jackson has been on a roll lately with his last four games all over 115 rushing yards and scoring in each of the last three. He has been good this year despite the significant attention his gets from the opposing defense and he's been prolific compared to others on his team.

Jackson ran for 67 yards on 16 carries in Seattle and had no catches.

The Seattle defense has been worse on the road where they have allowed seven rushing scores over five games. Expect a decent to good showing by Jackson again this week with a good shot at one touchdown.

Wide Receivers: Donnie Avery had 65 yards Sunday and had two scores the previous week with 67 yards. His yardage is never all that much but he has scored four times in the last six games. The rookie Brandon Gibson has played in two games now and so far has not done less than five receptions for 61 yards. Hasselbeck threw him an amzaing 17 passes last week and nine the game before that.

Avery only managed 46 yards on six catches in Seattle while Laurent Robinson turned in 87 yards on five catches.

I like two scores to the wideouts in this game since it is the weakness of the Seahawks defense. Look for respectable numbers from both Avery and Gibson. Seattle has given up 15 touchdowns to wide receivers this year.

Tight Ends: Never much more than 30 yards for Randy McMichael and sitll no scores.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 28 26 23 17 31 30
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 26 22 30 16 14 19

The Huddle
WEEK 12
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thanksgiving
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Monday
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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