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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: BAL 17, GB 24

Friday Update: Ryan Grant has been limited in practices but there is no expectation that he will miss this week because of a sore shoulder. This is the Monday night game so check on Saturday or Sunday to see if there has been any status change but it is not expected.

The Ravens are 6-5 and while they trail the Bengals by two full games (and really three), they are still in the hunt for a wildcard and need this game. The Ravens are only 2-3 on the road though. The Packers are 7-4 with a similar hope for a wildcard and are 4-2 in home games. This should be an interesting game with the Packers offense likely making the difference.

Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 KC 38-24 -12.5 36
2 @SD 31-26 +4 41
3 CLE 34-3 -13 38.5
4 @NE 21-27 +2 44.5
5 CIN 14-17 -8.5 42
6 @MIN 31-33 +3 44.5
7 BYE - - -
8 DEN 30-7 +4.5 42.5
9 @CIN 7-17 -3 43.5
10 @CLE 16-0 -11 39
11 IND 15-17 +1 44
12 PIT 20-17 -6 20
13 @GB - +3 44
14 DET - - -
15 CHI - - -
16 @PIT - - -
17 @OAK - - -
BAL at GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco     230,2
RB Ray Rice 70 50,1  
TE Todd Heap   20  
WR Mark Clayton   40  
WR Kelley Washington   30  
WR Derrick Mason   70,1  
PK Billy Cundiff 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: Taking down the Steelers last week was a big step towards making a playoff run but the Ravens have just gone through a strange five game period. In all cases, the defense has been superb in limiting opponents to 17 points or less including the Colts, Bengals and Steelers. But the offense has struggled for the last month and has no signs of regaining the passing form of the earlier season. This week and a road game to play in Pittsburgh remain as the two biggest obstacles.

Quarterback: After logging a score in every game and having a total of 12 touchdowns from the first seven weeks, Joe Flacco has take a big step backwards with only one score in the last four games and marginal yardage in most of those matchups. Flacco has been hampered by a sore ankle in recent weeks though he denies that is a culprit in the downturn.

The Packers have allowed six opponents to throw for multiple scores and five of those had three touchdowns or more. This is a chance for Flacco to turn in better numbers but he's going to have the same problem with being sacked. The Steelers reached him five times and the Packers have 17 sacks in their home games this year. Earlier in the season, Flacco would have had a big game here but he's just not been as effective. Expect one score and hope for a second one because the rushing game is about to be shut down.

Running Backs: Ray Rice has been one of the most productive backs in the league this year and while he only has two efforts over 100 rushing yards, he has been over 100 total yards for the last eight weeks and scored seven times this year. Rice not only serves as a great runner, he has an almost equal impact as a receiver with most his games serving up over 50 yards via receptions.

Willis McGahee had been nearly phased out but showed up last week to score for the first time since week four. He's still just a minimal role player.

Problem here is that the Packers are ranked #1 against running backs. They have only allowed two scores to rushers this year. Expect the normal out put from Rice - around 70 or so rushing yards and almost that much as a receiver. I like him to catch a score as well.

Wide Receivers: Perhaps the most damaging aspect of the offense is that there is no one to throw to other than Derrick Mason. He has five scores on the year and all the decent yardage games. He's also likely to retire in the offseason leaving the Ravens with Kelley Washington as the unproductive slot receiver and Mark Clayton who shows up less often than a phone bill.

The Packers secondary has taken some hits lately from injury and that should open it up for Mason to have a decent game with a score. If he doesn't do it - it just won't get done.

Tight Ends: This could have been a nice week for a tight end score but the Ravens almost never use the position and Todd Heal has not scored since week two. No fantasy value here.

Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 19 1 19 26 9 12
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 17 1 9 22 1 20

Green Bay Packers (7-4)
Homefield: Lambeau Field
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 CHI 21-15 -4 46
2 CIN 24-31 -9 42
3 @STL 36-17 -6.5 41
4 @MIN 23-30 +3.5 46
5 BYE - - -
6 DET 26-0 -13.5 47.5
7 @CLE 31-3 -9.5 41.5
8 MIN 26-38 -3.5 46.5
9 @TB 28-38 -10 43.5
10 DAL 17-7 +3 48
11 SF 30-24 -6 42
12 @DET 34-12 -11 48
13 BAL - -3 44
14 @CHI - - -
15 @PIT - - -
16 SEA - - -
17 @ARI - - -
GB vs BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers     250,2
RB Ryan Grant 70 20  
TE Jermichael FInley   30,1  
WR Greg Jennings   60,1  
WR Donald Driver   70  
WR James Jones   30  
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Packers are on a three game winning streak and beating the visiting Cowboys and 49ers were positive signs. But the rest of the season will make or break the Packers with games against these Ravens and the Steelers and Cardinals on the road. But even losses in those two road games would mean a 10-6 record which would still probably reach a wild card.

I like a defensive score in this game.

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers does not get the publicity of the stud quarterbacks but he has been right there with them in fantasy terms. Rodgers has scored in every game this year and has 22 passing touchdowns plus three more that he rushed in. He has thrown for over 300 yards four times and has served up multiple scores in each of the last nine games. He has also been sacked 44 times already. He's easily the most productive piñata on the planet.

The Ravens have been generally good against the pass this year but have allowed decent showings to the parade of top quarterbacks that they have faced. Rodgers is on a roll so expect good yardage and two passing scores. He always delivers.

Running Backs: Ryan Grant has been solid if not unspectacular this year and has five touchdowns and just two games over 100 rushing yards. He remains around 70 to 90 yards in most weeks though and even in a down week will throw in a few receptions to help.

The Ravens have been solid against runners and taking away Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson from the mix, and they have been outstanding against the position. Expect no score and moderate yardage at best from Grant.

Wide Receivers: Any of these wide receivers could have a good game and only Jordy Nelson has not had a big yardage effort so far and yet he still has two scores after missing six weeks due to injury. Donald Driver has five touchdowns and four games with 95+ yards including his season best 145 yards on seven catches just last week in Detroit. Greg Jennings only has three scores and all came in home games but he has topped 100 yards three times and bounces between 50 and 100 yards depending on how good the secondary is. Even James Jones has four touchdowns and one game over 100 yards. This unit can get the job done and use more than just one guy to do it.

The Ravens secondary is weakest against wide receivers and especially on the road. Expect most of the passing yardage to end up with this unit though breaking down who gets what is less reliable beyond Donald Driver who oddly enough always scores on the road but not in any home game since week two. Same thing for James Jones since week six. I'll credit Jennings but the confidence level is low.

Tight Ends: Jermichael Finley has been underused in road games lately but has remained around 50 yards in home games. But he only has one score this year while Spencer Havner who only has seven catches on the season had fours scores on the year and Donald Lee has one as well. I am crediting Finley with decent game for yardage and a touchdown but that score could go to any wideout or tight end.

Gaining Fantasy Points GB 1 19 7 7 6 4
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 10 7 15 5 12 2

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