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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: HOU 20, JAC 24

Friday Update: Steve Slaton was limited on Thursday and then held out of practice on Friday because his neck has been getting worse. He is not expected to play and I am replacing him with Ryan Moats.

The Texans are 5-6 and on a three game losing streak while the Jaguars are 6-5 and coming off a loss. The Texans are 3-2 in road games and the Jaguars are 4-1 at home. The Jaguars won 31-24 in Houston back in week three. This rematch game can end any remote hopes the Texans might have about reaching the playoffs.

Houston Texans (5-6)
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 NYJ 7-24 -4.5 44
2 @TEN 34-31 +7 40.5
3 JAC 24-31 -4 46.5
4 OAK 29-6 -9.5 41
5 @ARI 21-28 +5.5 48
6 @CIN 28-17 +5.5 46
7 SF 24-21 -3 44.5
8 @BUF 31-10 -3.5 42
9 @IND 17-20 +9 48
10 BYE - - -
11 TEN 17-20 -4 48.5-
12 IND 27-35 +3 48
13 @JAC - +1 46.5
14 SEA - - -
15 @STL - - -
16 @MIA - - -
17 NE - - -
HOU at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub     270,2
RB Steve Slaton 40 40
RB Ryan Moats 40 20  
RB Chris Brown 30 10  
TE James Casey   20  
WR Andre' Johnson   80,1  
WR Kevin Walter   70  
WR Jacoby Jones   30,1  
PK Kris Brown 2 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Texans were doing well until facing the Colts twice in four weeks and losing in Tennessee by a field goal only made it worse. The Texans continue their heritage of being good but never quite good enough and the hope for a winning season - which they have never had - is still possible but probably fleeting with three road games in the next month and then finishing with the Patriots.

Quarterback: Matt Schaub had one of his best games of the year back in week three when he passed for 300 yards and three touchdowns against the visiting Jaguars. He has since totaled six games with more than 300 yards and has 21 touchdowns on the season.

The Jaguars have allowed at least one score to every quarterback they have faced this year and allowed multiple scores on five occasions. Expect another good game here but Schaub should see a decrease since the Jags at home are tougher.

Running Backs: Ryan Moats is phased out completely and Chris Brown now splits with Steve Slaton and supplies the goal line runs. Slaton has returned to being a runner and a receiver though he been limited to ten or fewer carries per game since Brown became a factor.

In week three, Brown only gained 19 yards on eight carries against the Jaguars and Slaton turned in 76 yards on 12 runs with 37 yards on three receptions. The Jaguars are very good against the run and only one rusher has scored in Jacksonville. Expect marginal yardage, no scores but Slaton should prop up his value with receptions.

Wide Receivers: Kevin Walter has not scored since week three but the departure of Owen Daniels has led to heavier use of the flanker. Walter was chugging along with around 30 yards per game and then almost doubled that with around 60 yards per game. Andre Johnson remains the stud here who never has a game with less than 65 yards and has only scored five times this year. Jacoby Jones is catching up in that category with four touchdowns but always marginal yardage.

In week three, Johnson had 86 yards on four catches and Walter led the team with seven receptions for 96 yards and a score against the Jaguars. Jacoby Jones also scored though he only had 23 yards on two catches. That was Walters best game of the year and his only score.

This secondary is no better. Expect a good effort from Johnson and Walter both with scores credited to Johnson who is due and likely Jones again or even David Anderson.

Tight Ends: The rookie James Casey is starting to make a minor mark with a couple of catches per game but nothing that has replaced the void left by Owen Daniels.

Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 6 7 10 10 20 27
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 8 29 11 26 22

Jacksonville Jaguars (6-5)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @IND 12-14 +6.5 44.5
2 ARI 17-31 -3 43
3 @HOU 31-24 +4 46.5
4 TEN 37-17 +3 41.5
5 @SEA 0-41 -3 40
6 STL 23-20 -9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 @TEN 13-30 +3 44
9 KC 24-21 -6.5 42
10 @NYJ 24-22 +6.5 41
11 BUF 18-15 -9 41
12 @SF 3-20 +3 42.5
13 HOU - -1 46.5
14 MIA - - -
15 IND - - -
16 @NE - - -
17 @CLE - - -
JAX vs HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard     220,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 120,2 30  
TE Marcedes Lewis   30  
WR Torry Holt   40  
WR Mike Sims-Walker   70,1  
WR Mike Thomas   30  
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars suffered a setback with their big loss in San Francisco that ended a three game winning streak but back at home the Jaguars have won their last four games and look to get back on track this week. Rounding out the season are the visiting Dolphins and Colts and then two road tries to end the year in New England and then Cleveland. Those could be bad weather games and the Jaguars can likely only afford one more loss and still make the playoffs. That means they would have to beat the Pats or the Colts.

Quarterback: David Garrard has passed for a score in each of the last three wins before being shut out in San Francisco despite throwing for 307 yards. That was the third time he has passed the 300 yard mark and yet the second time it came without any passing touchdowns. The team remains centered on Jones-Drew.

Garrard passed for 214 yards in Houston and rushed in one score.

Garrard should just renew his string of one score games this week and turn in low 200's in passing. It could go lower depending on the success of Jones-Drew.

Running Backs: Last week broke the five game scoring streak for Maurice Jones-Drew but he still produced over 100 total yards in the loss. Jones-Drew had one of his biggest games of the year back in week three when he ran 23 times for 119 yards and three touchdowns in Houston and added 28 yards on four receptions in that game.

The Texans are no better at stopping the run on the road and have already allowed four monster games to other runners this season. Expect a nice showing by Jones-Drew this week that could grow into a monster game easily.

Wide Receivers: Mike Sims-Walker is still the only wide receiver for the Jaguars with a touchdown this year and he has six to his credit along with three efforts over 100 yards. Torry Holt has one game over 100 yards but no scores and normally only around 40 or 50 yards per game.

Sims-Walker led the Jaguars with 81 yards on six receptions in Houston while Holt was held to just 57 yards on three catches.

Look for a similar effort but a good chance that Sims-Walker gets a score.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis only had one catch in Houston but has been heavily used in recent weeks with over 40 yards in each of the last three games. He's a marginal play though since the game should be controlled by Jones-Drew.

Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 17 12 14 21 28 32
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 12 17 18 21 7 16

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