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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: NYJ 14, BUF 17

The Jets finally stopped their three game losing streak by taking down the visiting Panthers and at 5-6 on the season are still theoretically in the hunt for the playoffs. The Jets are only 2-3 in road games. The Bills are 4-7 and just ended their own three game losing streak and have a 2-3 mark at home.

The Bills won 16-13 when they visited the Jets in week six back when Dick Jauron was still in charge and the offense was doing little.

New York Jets (5-6)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF 13-16 --9.5 37
7 @OAK 38-0 -6 34
8 MIA 25-30 -3.5 40
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC 22-24 -7 41
11 @NE 14-31 +10.5 45
12 CAR 17-6 -3.5 41
13 @BUF - -3 37
14 @TB - - -
15 ATL - - -
16 @IND - - -
17 CIN - - -
NYJ at BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez     160
RB Thomas Jones 110,2 10  
TE Dustin Keller   60  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   60  
WR Braylon Edwards   40  
WR David Clowney   10  
PK Jay Feely   2 XP  
Pregame Notes: Rex Ryan's first season has come along reasonably well aside from growing pains on the offense. In order for the Jets to end with a winning record, they'd have to win four of the final five games and three of them come on the road. Plus ending against the Colts and Bengals won't make it any easier. Even worse, since beating the Patriots in week two, the Jets are 0-4 against AFC East rivals.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez continues to lurch through his rookie season and he's been nursing a sore knee that has limited his mobility. Sanchez has three rushing touchdowns on the year but almost no runs in the last three games that only featured a total of two passing scores. Sanchez is just a standard rookie quarterback now, hitting for a score in most games and rarely topping 200 yards.

Sanchez passed for 119 yards and no scores with five interception in the last game with the Bills.

Opposing quarterbacks have only thrown for one score over the last four games in Buffalo so expect another low game from Sanchez who will want to avoid having five more interceptions.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones remains ageless in this offense where he has scored or had 100+ yards in each of the last eight games. He has nine rushing touchdowns on the season and has topped 100 rush yards on five different occasions. Jones rushed for a season high 210 yards on 22 carries with one touchdown in the week six meeting with the Bills. At best, opponents try to contain Jones and hope he doesn't score more than once.

Shonn Greene had ten carries for 36 yards last week but lost his third fumble of the season. He's not making any strides to replace Jones this year.

Make no mistake - the Bills rushing defense is bad. They have given up 16 rushing scores and seven runners have topped 100 rushing yards against them. Look for another fine effort here by Jones.

Wide Receivers: The recent slip in passing numbers have taken all the fantasy significance from this unit. Braylon Edwards only had four catches for 50 yards over the last two games and his last two road games had only one inconsequential catch in each. Jerricho Cotchery has fared better though he had just one catch last week. Against the Bills in week six, only Edwards had a catch and ended with only 40 yards on three receptions.

The Bills have only allowed four scores to wideouts this season and only Randy Moss had a 100+ yard game against them. Consider the wide receivers here off-limits this week.

Tight Ends: The one player that has seen more usage as of late has been Dustin Keller who had 21 catches for 240 yards and one score over the last four games and never had less than three catches for 38 yards. Keller only had two catches for 16 yards in the first meeting but will need to be a bigger contributor this time.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 15 25 24 14 24
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 2 32 1 17 13 27

Buffalo Bills (4-7)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @NE 24-25 +10.5 47
2 TB 33-20 -4 41
3 NO 7-27 +5.5 52.5
4 @MIA 10-38 -2.5 37
5 CLE 3-6 -6 40.5
6 @NYJ 16-13 +9.5 37
7 @CAR 20-9 +7 37
8 HOU 10-31 -3.5 42
9 BYE - - -
10 @TEN 17-41 +9 41
11 @JAC 15-18 +9 41
12 MIA 31-14 +3.5 38
13 NYJ - +3 37
14 @KC - - -
15 NE - - -
16 @ATL - - -
17 IND - - -
BUF vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick     170,1
RB Fred Jackson 70,1 20  
TE Shawn Nelson   10  
WR Lee Evans   50,1  
WR Terrell Owens   40  
WR Josh Reed   20  
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Bills have a win under interim headcoach Perry Fewell and taking down the Fins served notice that the Bills are not yet dead. The rest of the schedule is not that bad aside from hosting the Patriots and ending with the Colts but Indy may not care or start any of the team studs that week to rest them. The offense has looked so much better since Dick Jauron left that even Terrell Owens is speaking to the press again.

Quarterback: Hard to argue with the results of switching to Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback. He has thrown for a score in each game and had at least 246 passing yards. He also added 50 yards on seven carries as a runner and scored a rushing touchdown. Facing the Jaguars was no surprise but the Dolphins were surprise by Fitzpatrick as well.

Trent Edwards and Fitzpatrick split the game last time they played the Jets with Edwards only having 43 yards before he was injured and then Fitzpatrick finished the game with 116 yards and one touchdown.

The Jets have only allowed seven passing scores this year all but three games have seen less than 200 passing yards. I like the newer look to the offense lately and the Jets will not have seen it before so Fitzpatrick should manage one touchdown pass with only marginal yardage.

Running Backs: It may be late in the season but the Bills are not afraid to try new things (they also have nothing to lose). In one of those "okay, fine then" moments, interim HC Perry Fewell has noticed that Fred Jackson always out produces Marshawn Lynch. In week 11, both had eight carries but Jackson gained 35 yards to only 18 for Lynch. Last week, Lynch only ran three times to gain six yards and Fred Jackson turned 15 carries into 73 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. The Bills only had one rushing score prior to Jackson's two touchdowns.

Back in week six, Jackson gained 52 yards on 15 carries while Lynch had 61 yards on 19 runs. I am only projecting for Jackson until some other change occurs.

The Jets are solid against the run though most teams can get 70 or so yards from their primary runner and they have allowed seven rushing scores to the position. Jackson won't have a big game here but he should add some catches in for moderate yardage. I like the chance for one score here.

Wide Receivers: These last two weeks with Fitzpatrick have been rejuvenating for Terrell Owens who has scored both weeks and had 14 catches for 293 yards. That dwarfs everything else Owens had done all season and almost matches the totals from his first nine games. The gains by Owens have come directly from Lee Evans who had four touchdowns over four weeks but now has gone three games without a score of more than 40 yards. That should change this week.

The question is who Darrelle Revis will cover. In week six, he held Owens to three catches for 13 yards while Evans only had 31 yards on four catches. I respect Revis enough to consider Owens as a poor start this week. I also like Evans to catch a score in this game getting the benefit of not being Owens. No player will have much yardage as a receiver in this game.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value. With Fitzpatrick there, Shawn Nelson has only had one catch per game.

Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 26 28 21 30 17 9
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 11 2 7 6 29

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