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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Sortable Player Projections
Game Predictions Summary

Projections by Team
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: TB 17, CAR 20

Friday Update: Delhomme has been called out this week. DeAngelo Williams is listed as questionable and was held out of practices this week but it is the same ankle injury that he already had going into last weekend and it was not an issue. He is still expected to play. This is an early game on Sunday so you can make other moves in the unlikely event that Williams was inactive but he is expected to play. Michael Clayton will not be playing this week because of his knee.

Thursday Update: Jake Delhomme has not practiced as expected and neither has DeAngelo Williams who is resting his ankle. Williams is still expected to play. Jonathan Stewart had his normal day off on Wednesday and returned to a full practice on Thursday. Michael Clayton has missed both practices and should miss this week as expected.

The Buccaneers are only 1-10 and 0-5 on the road though their last two trips out were losses by only three points or less. The Panthers are only 4-7 and on a two game losing streak with a 2-3 home mark. The Panthers won 28-21 in Tampa Bay back in week six. The difference this time is that the Buccaneers will have the better, more experienced quarterback if Delhomme does not play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-10)
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DAL 21-34 +5 39
2 @BUF 20-33 +4 41
3 NYG 0-24 +7 44
4 @WAS 13-16 +7 37
5 @PHI 14-33 +16 42.5
6 CAR 21-28 +3 39
7 NE 7-35 +15.5 44.5
8 BYE - - -
9 GB 38-28 +10 43.5
10 @MIA 23-25 +10 43
11 NO 7-38 +10.5 51
12 @ATL 17-20 +12 46
13 @CAR - +6.5 41
14 NYJ - - -
15 @SEA - - -
16 @NO - - -
17 ATL - - -
TB at CAR Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 20   220,1
RB Carnell Williams 50,1 10  
TE Kellen Winslow Jr.   80,1  
WR Antonio Bryant   40  
WR Maurice Stovall   30  
WR Sammie Stroughter   50  
PK Conner Barth 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Buccaneers have become much more competitive in most recent games and Josh Freeman is already making strides towards improvement. The benefit the Buccaneers get now is that most opponents do not take them too seriously and the games end up far closer than reason would suggest. Unfortunately, even taking the Buccaneers lightly has not gotten them more than the one won over the Packers.

Quarterback: Josh Freeman comes off his best game so far with 250 yards and two scores against the Falcons and for the first time he had no interceptions in the game. Freeman has scored in each of his four starts so far and is already impressing in his development.

When the Bucs played the Panthers back in week six, it was Josh Johnson who started and he only passed for 147 yards and no scores.

The Panthers at home have been limiting opponents to one passing score and sub-200 yard efforts which fits right into what Freeman has been producing.

Running Backs: The Buccaneers rushing attack in total has marginal fantasy value and split between Carnell Williams and Derrick Ward means no appreciable value. Neither runner has gained more than 56 yards in any of the last six games and rushed in just one score in that time. Most games end with both backs turning in around 30 to 40 total yards.

Back in week six, the Bucs had their best rushing game since the season opener when Carnell Williams gained 77 yards on 16 carries and actually scored a touchdown. Ward only had one carry for two yards. On the road this time means even less is likely though the Panthers rush defense is nothing special and has allowed 15 touchdowns to opposing running backs this year. Leave Ward alone as always but Williams has a chance for one score with mediocre yardage.

Wide Receivers: Michael Clayton sprained his knee last Sunday and did not return to the game. He's been a nonfactor the entire season anyway and would just give way to more Maurice Stovall. Antonio Bryant comes off his best game of the year with 91 yards on three catches and one touchdown.

Bryant only had 37 yards on two catches against the Panthers this year while Sammie Stroughter led the team with 65 yards on three receptions. Expect marginal numbers here with Bryant the only one with enough upside to warrant fantasy consideration.

Tight Ends: It defies all reason. There is no decent explanation. But still, Kellen Winslow is a bum at home and a star on the road. His four games over 57 yards all came on road trips that saw him with 7-90, 9-102, 7-102 and 7-81. At home he almost never has more than 30 yards. Consider him a decent start this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points TB 22 31 31 6 32 18
Preventing Fantasy Points CAR 6 26 3 10 14 32

Carolina Panthers (4-7)
Homefield: Bank of America Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 PHI 10-38 +2.5 43.5
2 @ATL 20-28 +6 43
3 @DAL 7-21 +9 46
4 BYE - -3.5 37.5
5 WAS 20-17 -5 38
6 @TB 28-21 -3 39
7 BUF 9-20 -7 37
8 @ARI 34-21 10 43.5
9 @NO 20-30 +14 52
10 ATL 28-19 +1 43.5
11 MIA 17-24 -3 43.5
12 @NYJ 6-17 +3.5 41
13 TB - -6.5 41
14 @NE - - -
15 MIN - - -
16 @NYG - - -
17 NO - - -
CAR vs TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Moore     160
RB DeAngelo Williams 100,1 20  
RB Jonathan Stewart 50,1    
TE Dante Rosario   30  
WR Steve Smith   50  
WR Muhsin Muhammad   40  
PK John Kasay 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The same passing woes have sunk the Panthers in recent games and now that Jake Delhomme has a fractured finger, the team will most likely make a change this week to Matt Moore or A. J. Feely. It won't make it any worse than what happened last week so it could be a positive change. No matter who is behind center, he will be haunted by the fact that there is no one to throw to other than Steve Smith and the defense is well aware of it.

Quarterback: Jake Delhomme fractured the finger on his throwing hand and may miss time this week. After throwing four more interceptions last week it is probably time to start something new. I am going to assume that the Panthers want to see Matt Moore play since he has been the other active quarterback on game day. Moore started three games at the end of 2007 as a rookie but has not done much since.

Delhomme only passed for 65 yards and one score with two interceptions in Tampa Bay this year because the rushing game took over. No reason to expect anything more than a mediocre showing by an inexperienced quarterback.

Running Backs: DeAngelo Williams comes off his worst game of the year when he only gained 40 yards on 16 carries in New York and had 10 yards on four receptions. But Williams was on the road against a stout Jets defense and he sprained his ankle during the game though he was able to finish the contest. Williams had his biggest game of the year back in week six when he rushed for 152 yards on 30 carries and scored twice in Tampa Bay in the first meeting with the Bucs.

Jonathan Stewart has been very quiet for the last few weeks but he too had his season best showing in Tampa Bay when he ran for 110 yards on 17 carries and scored once.

This is a better defense six weeks later and the Panthers are without Delhomme but the Bucs are getting good results from using Josh Freeman. The Panthers will seek to establish and rely on the ground game this week and will have some success even if not quite as good as six weeks ago. Both Williams and Stewart are attractive starts.

Wide Receivers: Steve Smith was smothered by Darrelle Revis last week and only had one catch for two yards though there was a touchdown catch that was reversed by a challenge. Smith has all the passing touchdowns (4) caught by a wideout and the only time any of these wide receivers have more than 40 yards or so is when it is a very soft secondary and Smith gains up to 70 or 80 yards, rare as that is.

There is nothing special about the Bucs to be sure but with a new quarterback, Smith is a risk to use for more than moderate yardage.

Tight Ends: Dante Rosario has seen an uptick in use lately for yardage but has not scored since week three. With a new quarterback, the risk is too high to consider him.

Gaining Fantasy Points CAR 30 5 28 16 27 23
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 28 25 25 24 27 23

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