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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 14
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
*updated

Prediction: BUF 17, KC 20

This is one of those coin flip games because the end result has many possible outcomes and none are all that more likely than another. The Bills are 4-8 and ready to throw in the towel but have no head coach and know the impending upheaval in the offseason will look at game film from this month. The Bills are 2-4 in road games. The Chiefs are 3-9 and are only 1-5 at home.

Buffalo Bills (4-8)
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @NE 24-25 +10.5 47
2 TB 33-20 -4 41
3 NO 7-27 +5.5 52.5
4 @MIA 10-38 -2.5 37
5 CLE 3-6 -6 40.5
6 @NYJ 16-13 +9.5 37
7 @CAR 20-9 +7 37
8 HOU 10-31 -3.5 42
9 BYE - - -
10 @TEN 17-41 +9 41
11 @JAC 15-18 +9 41
12 MIA 31-14 +3.5 38
13 NYJ 13-19 +3.5 37
14 @KC - -1 37.5
15 NE - - -
16 @ATL - - -
17 IND - - -
BUF at KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick     220,2
RB Marshawn Lynch 50 10  
RB Fred Jackson 40 30,1  
WR Lee Evans   40  
WR Terrell Owens   100,1  
WR Josh Reed   30  
PK Rian Lindell 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The win over the Fins was fun but it also was the only victory in the last five games and the only time the offense had scored more than two touchdowns in a game since week two. The remaining two home games for the Bills are brutal - NE and IND and yet the two road games have promise. In the end it really doesn't matter much since Ryan Fitzpatrick is barely the quarterback of the present let alone the future and all the team has done this year is prove Terrell Owens is really old and that the running game is just never going to work at this rate.

Quarterback: Ryan Fitzpatrick still jumps all over the board for production as high as 297 yards and as low as 98 yards but always no more than one passing score. Of course that is accompanied by at least one interception as well and he has been sacked nine times in the last two weeks.

There is no denying that the Chiefs secondary is weak and the last five visitors have all passed for at least two or three touchdowns against them. If Fitzpatrick cannot toss two scores here they should just stick Edwards back in and start reviewing for the NFL draft to get another quarterback.

Running Backs: Just when you are ready to write off Marshawn Lynch, he turns six carries into 60 yards and a score against the Jets while Fred Jackson was limited to 31 yards on 13 carries and added 24 yards on three receptions. Bottom line - the rushing attack here has only produced four rushing touchdowns all season and aside from Lynch's 35 yard run and 15 yard score last week he was just as unproductive as he has been for the last six weeks.

It is favorable that three rushing scores came over the last two games and against good defenses as well but both were divisional rivals.

Anything could happen here but I am not yet buying into either Jackson or Lynch as being any better than they have been all year. Two home games against divisional rivals is different than this road game.

Wide Receivers: Terrell Owens was shut down by Darrelle Revis last week but had been good for 85+ yards in each of the three previous games. He's emerged enough to sap the value out of Lee Evans who has been held to two or less catches in the last three games. As the season winds down, might as well get the money's worth from Owens.

The Chiefs have allowed seven receivers to score in Kansas City and two (Miles Austin and Steve Smith/NYG) both had two touchdowns. This should be a big game for Owens if they will commit to throwing to him. Seven players have gained 90+ yards and every one had a score.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 26 27 23 31 16 11
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 29 29 23 25 31 22


Kansas City Chiefs (3-9)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @BAL 24-38 +12.5 36
2 OAK 10-13 -4 41
3 @PHI
14-34
+9.5 42.5
4 NYG 16-27 +9 42.5
5 DAL 20-26 +9 42.5
6 @WAS 14-6 +6 37
7 SD 7-37 +5.5 44
8 BYE - - -
9 @JAC 21-24 +6.5 42
10 @OAK 16-10 +1 48
11 PIT 27-24 +10.5 39.5
12 @SD 14-43 +13 44.5
13 DEN 13-44 +6 39
14 BUF - +1 37.5
15 CLE - - -
16 @CIN - - -
17 @DEN - - -
KC vs BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel     200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 100,1 30  
TE Leonard Pope   20,1  
WR Lance Long   40  
WR Chris Chambers   60  
WR Mark Bradley   20  
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs have a nice chance to end up on a better note with home games against these Bills and then the Browns up next. This will be a good stage for Jamaal Charles to show he can be the man before he goes to Cincy and Denver where he won't look so good.

I like a defensive score this week.

Quarterback: Matt Cassel has varied all over the map this year with games as good as 262 yards and two scores and as bad as just 84 yards (last week no less). But he has been consistently better at home where just three weeks ago he passed for 248 yards and two scores against the Steelers. The incoming Bills sport one of the stingiest defenses against the pass but primarily because everyone just runs all over them and does not bother to pass.

The Chiefs are not going to run Charles 35 times this week and Cassel will have to throw. Expect a moderate showing with one score here. Most opponents end with more than 200 yards and a score against them.

Running Backs: Jamaal Charles continues to impress with a score in each of the last four games and decent rushing yards against the softer defenses. He has twice rushed for over 90 yards in this month of starting and still maintained at least a minimal role as a receiver as well.

The Bills rank dead last against running backs and have allowed 16 rushing scores and eight runners to exceed 100 rushing yards. Chris Johnson even pasted them for 100 receiving yards as well. This should be a solid showing by Charles with one rushing score and good yardage. If he can break a run or two, he could have a really big game.

Wide Receivers: Since Dwayne Bowe left in week ten, Chris Chambers had taken up the slack nicely but then was corralled by Champ Bailey last week and settled for only only two short catches. No other wideout here has stepped up and the Bills have a solid set of cornerbacks that have shut down most receivers this year.

The Bills have only allowed five touchdowns thrown to wideouts and most end up with only moderate yardage. Consider Chambers as no more than your third wideout if that and leave the rest alone. Next week with the Browns you can reconsider.

Tight Ends: Leonard Pope has started showing up for around 20 yards per week lately but far too little for any fantasy consideration. That all said, I like him to score as he did against the Steelers three weeks ago. He won't have any yardage to speak of but is a slightly better bet for a touchdown than a wide receiver./

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 25 31 17 29 23 28
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 3 32 2 16 19 26

The Huddle
WEEK 14
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
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