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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 14
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
*updated

Prediction: MIA 17, JAC 23

Friday Night Update: Sims-Walker missed practiced again on Friday and is not expected to play this week. He is listed doubtful on the injury report. I have removed him from the projections.

Thursday Night Update: Mike Sims-Walker was limited on Wednesday and then held out today because of his calf injury. I am not changing the projections now but may after practices tomorrow. Check back if you need Sims-Walker.

The Dolphins have drawn within one game of the Patriots in the AFC East and are only 2-4 on the road. The Jaguars rise to 7-5 and are 5-1 at home with a chance to knock out a potential wildcard rival this week.

Miami Dolphins (7-5)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @ATL 7-19 +4 43.5
2 IND 23-27 +3 42
3 @SD 13-23 +6 42
4 BUF 38-10 +2.5 37
5 NYJ 31-27 +1.5 36.5
6 BYE - - -
7 NO 34-46 +6 48
8 @NYJ 30-25 +3.5 40
9 @NE 17-27 +10.5 47
10 TB 25-23 -10 43
11 @CAR 24-17 +3 43.5
12 @BUF 14-31 -3.5 38
13 NE 22-21 +4.5 46
14 @JAC - +3 44
15 @TEN - - -
16 HOU - - -
17 PIT - - -
MIA at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne     220,2
RB Ricky Williams 70    
TE Anthony Fasano   60  
WR Brian Hartline   40,1  
WR Greg Camarillo   30  
WR Davone Bess   60,1  
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins upset over the Patriots means the team is not dead just because Ronnie Brown is gone. But they have only beaten the Buccaneers and Panthers outside of the division and have two challenging road trips followed by two tough home games. The Dolphins are good enough to win all four games if it all goes right but it will be a tall order to expect a winning record.

This is just not a road team and struggles outside the division.

Quarterback: Chad Henne comes off a freakishly high game for the season when he passed for 335 yards and two scores over the Patriots. He had been far more likely to remain below 200 yards and score only once. Henne only has nine passing scores in nine starts.

The Jaguars are far weaker in the secondary than against the run and this is where all teams attack them. Every opponent this year has scored at least once via the pass but most only have a single score. Ignoring last week, look for Henne to return to his normal production with a bit more yardage.

Running Backs: Ricky Williams fell off his 100+ rushing yard pace of three games but still produced 75 yards on 18 carries against the visiting Patriots. That left Lex Hilliard with only five carries again this week and no running back other than Williams has any real role in the offense. The problem too is that there is more and more game film to watch of the Dolphins using only Williams which will work against the rushing game here since it has contracted in complexity since Ronnie Brown left. The Fins may retire the wildcat for now as well.

The Jaguars have been outstanding against the run and allowed only two rushing scores in Jacksonville this season. Most likely here is a decrease for Williams from last week and no score.

Wide Receivers: Davone Bess comes off a season best 10 catches for 117 yards and one touchdown against the injury-depleted Patriots but before you spend your last bucks on the free agent, realize that was his first score of the year and and he only had more than 56 yards twice all year. His previous best was 72 yards against the Buccaneers. Brian Hartline scored for the second week in a row but almost never has more than 50 yards in a game. Last week was the exception but this unit should post a score and some decent yardage.

The passing score could go to any player here and the Jaguars are normally letting the #1 guy score - but who is that here? Bess has been marginally better recently and will get the credit but do not rely on these receivers for more than the yardage.

Tight Ends: Anthony Fasano has really stepped up in the last two weeks with five catches in each game and about 70 yards both times. He has only scored twice all year though and had minimal yardage until Brown left and the offense shifted.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 28 3 22 27 11 8
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 24 8 30 9 22 21


Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @IND 12-14 +6.5 44.5
2 ARI 17-31 -3 43
3 @HOU 31-24 +4 46.5
4 TEN 37-17 +3 41.5
5 @SEA 0-41 -3 40
6 STL 23-20 -9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 @TEN 13-30 +3 44
9 KC 24-21 -6.5 42
10 @NYJ 24-22 +6.5 41
11 BUF 18-15 -9 41
12 @SF 3-20 +3 42.5
13 HOU 23-18 -1 47.5
14 MIA - -3 44
15 IND - - -
16 @NE - - -
17 @CLE - - -
JAX vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 10   200,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 100,1 10  
TE Marcedes Lewis   60,1  
WR Torry Holt   60  
WR Mike Sims-Walker 80,1
WR Mike Thomas   40  
PK Josh Scobee 3 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The stumble in San Francisco was no help but the Jaguars are back on the winning track and currently have the #2 wild card by themselves at 7-5. This week is a must win since it knocks Miami back another game and softens the blow of the Colts probable win in week 15 here. A win this week and in the season finale means the Jaguars either sneak in with a 9-7 record or they knock off the Patriots in New England and end up with a safe 10-6 record.

Quarterback: No changes in David Garrard who has only ten passing scores this year and was blanked in six games largely because he just handed off to Maurice Jones-Drew for the win. In recent weeks he has been a bit more productive but mainly because the rushing game has been less sharp for three weeks.

Garrard should throw for at least one score here since all of the Fins opponents do. But more than moderate yardage means the running game is not going well. He's never had a truly big game all year and it is not likely to happen this week either.

Running Backs: Maurice Jones-Drew was on a mission in midseason when he had scored 13 touchdowns by week 11 and had five games exceed 100 rushing yards. But he only rushed for 66 yards on 25 carries against the Bills in week 11 and since then been right at 75 rushing yards with no scores for the last two games. Still a decent showing but nothing befitting the best scoring running back in the NFL.

The Dolphins are good against the run and only allowed two 100+ yard efforts against them - both in road games though. And the dynamics have shifted with the absence of Ronnie Brown that actually affect the defense as well. Look for decent to good yardage for Jones-Drew and a chance for a score.

Wide Receivers: Mike Sims-Walker has turned in two subpar games in a row now but it is not like the passes went to another wideout. Torry Holt chugs along with 30 or 40 yards per week regardless what is happening or needed and no other wideout on this team matters. Nate Hughes caught the score last week but on his only catch in the game and he only has four receptions on the season.

The Dolphins are weaker against wideouts and this is where the Jaguars need to notch a score. That has to involve Sims-Walker who should have decent yardage to show as well. The Fins have been most often beaten because of the opponents #1 wide receiver.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis has seen a spark of production in the last month and now accounts for around 50 yards in each contest but has not scored since back in week four.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 14 14 15 19 27 32
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 28 10 15 20 30 18

The Huddle
WEEK 14
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
Other Features
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Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
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