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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 14
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
*updated

Prediction: NYJ 20, TB 13

Friday Night Update: Carnell Williams was a late add to the injury report on Friday when he was limited because of an issue with his back. He is considered questionable but will be evaluated before the game. If he cannot play, the Bucs would go with Derrick Ward. I am not changing the projections but be aware of the new situation with Williams. Sammie Stroughter is the exact same situation with popping up on Friday with a lower back injury and being questionable this week. Winslow has had two full practices and should be fine this week.

Thursday Night Update: Kellen Winslow took Wednesday off to rest his knee but returned on Thursday and is fine to play this week. Michael Clayton remains out with a sprained knee. Mark Sanchez has been ruled out this week and will be replaced by Kellen Clemens His PCL sprain is not that severe and Sanchez could be back next week.

The Jets have won their last two games and at 6-6 are only game out of the lead for the AFC East. The Jets are 3-3 in road games. The Buccaneers remain safely in the cellar of the NFC South at 1-11 and of course are just 1-5 in home games. This all smacks of a low scoring game.

New York Jets (6-6)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF 13-16 --9.5 37
7 @OAK 38-0 -6 34
8 MIA 25-30 -3.5 40
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC 22-24 -7 41
11 @NE 14-31 +10.5 45
12 CAR 17-6 -3.5 41
13 @BUF 19-13 -3.5 39
14 @TB - -5 39.5
15 ATL - - -
16 @IND - - -
17 CIN - - -
NYJ at TB Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez 180,1
QB Kellen Clemens     160,1
RB Thomas Jones 120,1 10  
RB Shonn Greene 40    
TE Dustin Keller   40  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   50  
WR Braylon Edwards   40,1  
WR David Clowney   10  
PK Jay Feely 2 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The win in Canada over the Bills was another step up towards a winning season and a shot at postseason play. It is very possible that the AFC East does not produce a wild card team and the Jets traded wins with the Patriots but were swept by the Dolphins. All they can do now is hope the others fall while they try to win out. The only bit of luck that the Jets could catch is if the Colts and Bengals are resting players in those final games of the season.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez sprained his PCL last week but is still optimistic that he will play this week. He may wear braces on his knees for support which will limit his mobility even further. Sanchez ha snot been worth more than about 150 yards and a score for the last month.

The Buccaneers have been very weak against the pass this year and allowed nine different opponents to throw for two or more touchdowns against them. Look for Sanchez to pass for a score and marginal yardage anyway. He has not taken advantage of weaker secondaries in the recent past anyway and the Buccaneers are also weak against the run.

Running Backs: Thomas Jones is only scoring every other week now but this is a week for points and he's been almost machine-like cranking out 75+ yards every week. He already has six 100 yard games and nine rushing touchdowns. Shonn Greene is picking up about ten carries per week when facing softer defenses such as the Bucs so expect to see him as well.

The Bucs have allowed nine runners to exceed 90 rushing yards so look for a nice game here by Jones with just enough left over to give Greene some marginal value this week.

Wide Receivers: Braylon Edwards caught a touchdown last week but only after he had what would have been an easy 84-yard touchdown catch bounce off his facemask instead of catching it. He was wideout open down the right sideline but misjudged the ball. Both he and Jerricho Cotchery now have three receiving scores on the year and Cotchery remains the better bet for yardage.

Of the 18 wideouts with a catch in Tampa Bay, 10 of them scored a touchdown. If Sanchez can be healthy enough, there would be two scores here to share but with just one, it favors Edwards slightly more.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller has only two scores on the year but has been good for around 40 yards in most recent games. He has a tendency to do less on the road when he is blocking on more plays. Consider him a marginal fantasy starter at best.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 15 26 24 9 23
Preventing Fantasy Points TB 26 23 21 22 27 24


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-11)
Homefield: Raymond James Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DAL 21-34 +5 39
2 @BUF 20-33 +4 41
3 NYG 0-24 +7 44
4 @WAS 13-16 +7 37
5 @PHI 14-33 +16 42.5
6 CAR 21-28 +3 39
7 NE 7-35 +15.5 44.5
8 BYE - - -
9 GB 38-28 +10 43.5
10 @MIA 23-25 +10 43
11 NO 7-38 +10.5 51
12 @ATL 17-20 +12 46
13 @CAR 6-16 +3.5 40
14 NYJ - +5 39.5
15 @SEA - - -
16 @NO - - -
17 ATL - - -
TB vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Josh Freeman 30   170,1
RB Carnell Williams 50 10  
TE Kellen Winslow Jr.   50,1  
WR Antonio Bryant   30  
WR Maurice Stovall   30  
WR Sammie Stroughter   30  
PK Conner Barth 2 FG 1 XP  

Pregame Notes: The brutal year winds down with a second win still not in sight even it many recent games have ended tantalizingly close in score. The team still has done little to improve other than allowing Josh Freeman to experience his growing pains on the scoreboard. Week 17 remains as the last chance for a second win though by then - why move back in the NFL draft?

Quarterback: The rookie Josh Freeman has not only turned in his first ever 300 yard game (321 at Carolina), he finally had a start that produced no passing scores and he has a career best five interceptions in one game now. Freeman has skills but with the offense has done little to support his development.

Unfortunately, this week is the toughest secondary that Freeman has yet faced so expect a step backwards this week with no more than one passing score and marginal yardage at best.

Running Backs: This backfield has only produced four rushing touchdowns this year and in most games there are no runners with more than about 50 rushing yards - often far less. Carnell Williams has improved slightly in recent weeks thanks mostly to the schedule but he has yet to gain over 100 rushing yards. Even as the primary back, he rarely has more than 15 touches in a game. Derrick Ward offers almost nothing and only serves to drain the fantasy value of Williams.

The Jets have one of the better rush defenses and the Buccaneers are among the most offensive-deprived teams. Expect nothing more than minimal numbers this week.

Wide Receivers: No need to go into too many details here. Antonio Bryant has popped back up in the last few weeks and has produced fantasy relevant numbers with 91 yards and a score against the Panthers and 116 yards against the Panthers. But he is also sure to face Darrelle Revis this week which is akin to taking a vacation from the game plan.

Michael Clayton has been out for two weeks with a bad knee but his replacement Maurice Stovall will likely keep the job with a far more impressive showing than Clayton (remember - the bar is very low here). Slot man Sammie Stroughter has really declined in the last month with never more than 23 yards per game.

The Jets are #1 against wide receivers, so do not expect anything here worthy of fantasy consideration and in particular Bryant who should get shut down by Revis.

Tight Ends: Kellen Winslow has remained a round 60 yards in most recent games though he only has one score since week nine. I like Winslow to show up with a score this week because he is easily the most likely to have the most targets and potential opportunities.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TB 22 30 31 8 32 19
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 12 1 3 7 28

The Huddle
WEEK 14
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
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