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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 14
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
*updated

Prediction: SEA 13, HOU 24

The Seahawks have won their last two games but are still just 5-7 and have only been 1-5 on the road. The Texans are also 5-7 and are just 2-4 at home but has not had the pleasure of playing in the NFC West.

Seattle Seahawks (5-7)
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 STL 28-0 -7.5 37
2 @SF 10-23 +1.5 39.5
3 CHI 19-25 +2 37
4 @IND 17-34 +10 43.5
5 JAC 41-0 +3 40
6 ARI 3-27 -3 47
7 BYE - - -
8 @DAL 17-38 +10 46
9 DET 32-20 -10 43
10 @ARI 20-31 +9 47
11 @MIN 9-35 +10.5 47
12 @STL 27-17 -3.5 42.5
13 SF 20-17 -1 41.5
14 @HOU - +6 44.5
15 TB - - -
16 @GB - - -
17 TEN - - -
SEA at HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Hasselbeck     230,1
RB Julius Jones 50 10  
RB Justin Forsett 20 20,1  
TE John Carlson   30  
WR T. J. Houshmandzadeh   40  
WR Deion Branch   20  
WR Nate Burleson   70  
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Seahawks are 5-7 but that is three wins over the Rams and 49ers, and then beating the visiting Lions and Jaguars. Hitting the road outside the division has been unkind since the losses have always been by 10+ points. Hosting the Buccaneers next week means a chance for another win but these Seahawks are likely to wind up at 6-10 on the year.

Quarterback: Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 13 touchdowns this year but only three were produced over the five road trips that he participated in. His stats are deceptively high thanks to facing the NFC West plus the Lions and his last two trips away from Seattle had no scores and never more than 231 yards. Hasselbeck sprained his throwing shoulder last week but it is not expected to be a problem.

The Texans allow most opponents to score via the pass and five have rolled up multiple scores. The bigger limitation here is Hasselbeck who has not been nearly as productive on the road.

Running Backs: Julius Jones returned after two weeks off with a lung injury but he stepped back into a full time role with 20 carries for 67 yards and five catches against the 49ers. Justin Forsett was limited to only five runs for nine yards though he scored on a reception and was not 100% healthy because of his quadriceps.

The problem this week is that Julius Jones has never rushed in a score on the road or had more than 56 rushing yards. Forsett will continue to figure in and has been about to have decent yardage as a receiver in away games.

The Texans have been weak against running backs but has faced far better runners than Julius Jones. Figure Jones to keep his scoreless streak alive and turn in only marginal yardage. Forsett is credited with a touchdown but the confidence is low for him as it is all the other wideouts and tight ends.

Wide Receivers: The wide receivers have never met expectations here with T. J. Houshmandzadeh the biggest disappointment since he has only scored in two games - homestands against the Lions and Jaguars - and remained below 40 receiving yards in six of the last seven games. Nate Burleson has been marginally better but has not scored since week five. Deion Branch had a touchdown last week on his only catch but he's been limited to less than 20 yards in almost every game.

The Texans have been weaker against wideouts but the Seahawks have scored only once on the road with the position and had only marginal yardage outside of Nate Burleson. While possible, this doesn't seem likely to produce the second touchdown of the year.

Tight Ends: John Carlson has been little used in the last three weeks after consistently turning in 30 to 40 yards each week and scoring three times. This position is a weakness for the Texans and I like Carlson to show up better this week but he's not an ideal choice for a fantasy start because he has been unreliable.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 13 11 13 25 10 17
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 14 16 14 27 12 17


Houston Texans (5-7)
Homefield: Reliant Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 NYJ 7-24 -4.5 44
2 @TEN 34-31 +7 40.5
3 JAC 24-31 -4 46.5
4 OAK 29-6 -9.5 41
5 @ARI 21-28 +5.5 48
6 @CIN 28-17 +5.5 46
7 SF 24-21 -3 44.5
8 @BUF 31-10 -3.5 42
9 @IND 17-20 +9 48
10 BYE - - -
11 TEN 17-20 -4 48.5-
12 IND 27-35 +3 48
13 @JAC 18-23 +1 47.5
14 SEA - -6 44.5
15 @STL - - -
16 @MIA - - -
17 NE - - -
HOU vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub     280,2
RB Ryan Moats 40 30  
RB Chris Brown 30,1 10  
WR Andre' Johnson   90,1  
WR Kevin Walter   60,1  
WR David Anderson   40  
PK Kris Brown 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Texans are on a four game losing streak but playing the Colts twice is never pain free and the Titans and Jaguars are both improving steadily, unlike the Texans. This week is the best shot for a win left on the schedule and along with the next week in St. Louis could get the Texans to 7-7 but two final games at Miami and then hosting the Patriots will likely deny the Texans from their first ever winning season.

Quarterback: Matt Schaub dislocated his non-throwing shoulder last week but returned to finish the game and is not expected to have any issue from it this week. He continues with is best season and has scored in all but one of the last eleven games and had multiple scores seven times. Notable this week is that Schaub has always been at his best in Houston where he has thrown for ten touchdowns over the last five home games and had healthy yardage in each.

The Seahawks secondary is a weak spot in the defense and have given up 13 passing scores in five games with big yardage in most. The rushing game for the Texans remains a problem so Schaub needs to throw and the Seahawks secondary is accommodating. Expect at least two passing scores and very good yardage here that could become a monster game.

Running Backs: Steve Slaton was a scratch last week because of a worsening neck and shoulder injury and he is slated to meet with more specialists this week. I will assume he is out until cleared and practicing.

Chris Brown has scored in each of the last two games but had minimal yardage, Ryan Moats replaced Slaton and gained 41 yards on 12 runs and had 24 yards on three receptions. Aside from the offense getting near the goal line for a short score, there is almost no reliable fantasy value in this backfield.

Brown was called on to throw a trick pass near the goal but it was an interception and there was, literally, no one from the Texans anywhere near where Brown threw. He's probably passed for the last time.

The Seahawks are actually very tough against the run and have allowed only one runner to top 100 rush yards against them. Look for one rushing score and marginal yardage to get shared.

Wide Receivers: Jacoby Jones was a scratch last week because he was late for a team meeting and the promising slot receiver remains on the bad side of HC Gary Kubiak. Jones had scored four times this year including in week 12. I will assume he returns with his tail betwixt his legs this week. Andre Johnson caught his sixth score on the year in Jacksonville last Sunday and he has five games at or over 100 yards this year. All other wideouts are mainly decoys and blockers. Kevin Walter has improved lately but only with a consistent 50 yards or so each week.

The Seahawks have already given up 18 scores to wide receivers this year and occasional 100+ yard game as well. Figure on a nice showing here by Johnson who should have at least one touchdown and could end up with two. There have been 21 wideouts with catches in road games against the Seahawks. 13 of them have scored - over half of all road wideouts scored. I even like Walter this week.

Tight Ends: Just when you think the rookie James Casey is starting to matter, he has no catches - or even passes thrown to him - last week. No fantasy value here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 8 7 10 14 22 26
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 27 18 29 23 11 14

The Huddle
WEEK 14
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
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