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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 15
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
*updated

Prediction: ATL 6, NYJ 24

Thursday Night Update: Both Michael Turner and Matt Ryan had what was described as "very limited" practice on Thursday but neither is likely to play yet. There is no need in adding them back into the projections and facing the Jets would be a brutal matchup anyway. Mark Sanchez had returned to full practices and is expected to start this week.

The Falcons have lost their last two games thanks in no small part to losing their quarterback and running back and are only 1-5 in road games this year. The Jets are on a three game winning streak and remain just one game out of first in the AFC East and yet have only a 3-3 home mark.

Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
Homefield: Georgia Dome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 MIA 19-7 -4 43.5
2 CAR 28-20 -6 43
3 @NE 10-26 +4 44.5
4 BYE -    
5 @SF 45-10 +2.5 41
6 CHI 21-14 -3 45.5
7 @DAL 21-37 +5 47.5
8 @NO 27-35 +10 54
9 WAS 31-17 -10 41
10 @CAR 19-28 -1 43.5
11 @NYG 31-34 +7 46
12 TB 20-17 -12 46
13 PHI 7-34 +4 43.5
14 NO 23-26 10 50.5
15 @NYJ - +6 40
16 BUF - - -
17 @TB - - -
ATL at NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Chris Redman     180
RB Jason Snelling 30 20  
RB Jerious Norwood 20 20  
TE Tony Gonzalez   60  
WR Michael Jenkins   40  
WR Roddy White   20  
WR Marty Booker   20  
PK Jason Elam 2 FG    
Pregame Notes: Losing Michael Turner and Matt Ryan has been the death knell expected for this team that already had a problem with excelling at home and then always falling apart on the road. Dropping to 6-7 already all but assures the Falcons of no post-season play and this week will only twist the dagger more. The final two games are certainly "winnable" with a healthy squad but may be a challenge as well unless Ryan and Turner get back onto the field. It would be a motivation to win those last two to avoid a losing season.

Quarterback: Matt Ryan continues to be out with his turf toe injury and there is speculation that he may just be shut down for the last remaining weeks since the Falcons are no longer likely to reach the playoffs. To his credit, Chris Redman has thrown for at least one score in his three games played but only once more than one touchdown and he also managed to hit a freak stretch in the schedule where there were three straight home games. On the road the outlook is far bleaker for Redman playing in New York against the Jets.

Those Jets have only allowed seven passing scores in total this year. Only three teams have exceeded 200 passing yards on them. This is not a good week to want to rely on Chris Redman.

Running Backs: Michael Turner remains out with his high ankle sprain though the Falcons are trying to get him back into the lineup, as ill-advised as that seems since he re-aggravated the injury in his first attempt to rush back. In his absence, Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood have split the workload in carries though Snelling has remained the receiver as well. With roughly ten rushing attempts per week for each, neither is producing fantasy relevant numbers though Snelling managed one rushing score last week. Like Redman, these runners are also getting the benefit of a three game stretch of home games that is over this week.

The Jets have only allowed two rushing scores to visitors this entire year and rarely any significant yardage. Take a bad Falcons offense, replace Turner with a split backfield and put it in New York and you have plenty of reasons to ignore this team this week.

Wide Receivers: The Falcons just placed Brian Finneran on injured reserve with a torn PCL and the soon-to-be 34 year old has possibly seen his last action in the NFL. Roddy White had been flying high this year with eight touchdowns including two from Chris Redman but then was held to only 41 yards on two receptions against the Saints last Sunday. Michael Jenkins scored last week but that was his first this season and he only had three catches in the game.

The obvious problem this week is that Darrelle Revis will no doubt do the weekly shutdown dance with White. Revis has been nearly flawless this year and White would be challenged enough to produce playing against him at home with Ryan throwing the ball. With Redman in New York this week, White has his first week of the season where he is not an attractive fantasy play. The Jets have only allowed five passing scores to wideouts this season. Not likely the Falcons are going to make that six.

Tight Ends: Like Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez had no dip in production with Chris Redman starting until last week when he turned in one of his worst showings of the year - 50 yards on six catches with no scores versus the Saints. Now Gonzalez faces the #2 defense against tight ends on the road. Gonzo has five touchdowns this season but only one came in a road game. Expect decent yardage this week since Redman will avoid Roddy White but no scores.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ATL 14 11 17 5 22 25
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 6 1 2 3 28


New York Jets (7-6)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF 13-16 --9.5 37
7 @OAK 38-0 -6 34
8 MIA 25-30 -3.5 40
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC 22-24 -7 41
11 @NE 14-31 +10.5 45
12 CAR 17-6 -3.5 41
13 @BUF 19-13 -3.5 39
14 @TB 26-3 -3.5 36.5
15 ATL - -6 40
16 @IND - - -
17 CIN - - -
NYJ vs ATL Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez     180,1
QB Kellen Clemens 150,1
RB Thomas Jones 90,1 10  
RB Shonn Greene 40    
TE Dustin Keller   30  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   50  
WR Braylon Edwards   50,1  
WR David Clowney   20  
PK Jay Feely 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Jets are on a three game winning streak may just catch a huge break. After hosting the injury-depleted Falcons this week, they travel to Indy where the Colts may or may not be using starters. And the final week against the visiting Bengals may see that team also resting players as well. Running the table with a 10-6 final record gets a playoff spot if not the division. The Jets are in a good spot to control their destiny and get some lucky help along the way potentially.

I like a defensive score this week.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez will return to practice this week but the team wants to be sure that he is 100% healthy before risking any reaggravating of his knee injury. Sanchez is no lock to start this game and I will project for Kellen Clemens to take the start again this week until Sanchez is cleared to play. Clemens only completed 11 of 23 passes for 111 yards and no scores in Tampa Bay last week but the game turned into just a rushing attack anyway.

The Falcons are horrible against quarterbacks and all but one opponent has thrown for at least one score against them and half had two or more touchdowns. Six teams had gained around 300 or more yards via the pass but that won't happen here. Expect marginal yardage but a shot at one passing score this week.

Running Backs: The old man Thomas Jones still has plenty of spring in his step and comes off this third game of the year with two rushing scores. He has 11 touchdowns on the year and half his games end up around or above 100 rushing yards. The Falcons come in with a banged up offense so there should be plenty of reasons why the Jets will want to run the ball plenty this week. There may even be enough left over to allow marginal fantasy value out of Shonn Greene who has seen around ten carries per game for the last three weeks without digging into Jones' stats much.

The Falcons rushing defense has been better than the ranking suggests since it has allowed only one runner to top 100 yards against them this year. But they have allowed eight rushing scores and six touchdown via a pass to a running back which is not much used by the Jets since Leon Washington left. Expect one rushing score from Jones and very solid yardage.

Wide Receivers: The receiver numbers have been low this year anyway and with Clemens under center last week they went even further south. Both Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery have three scores on the season with Cotchery more productive when Sanchez plays. Last week - which was not a great clue to this game - had Clemens preferring Edwards. I like one passing score here that will likely end up with a wide out. I am giving that to Edwards based from last week but very little confidence on this since either wideout or the tight end Keller could end up with the touchdown.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller had been solid for five straight weeks but then the last two games left him with only one catch per week. The Falcons are very weak against the position but Keller spent all last week blocking. That could happen again. The situation is nice but Keller has not connected well with Clemens.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 28 15 25 26 8 20
Preventing Fantasy Points ATL 31 25 22 30 22 15

The Huddle
WEEK 15
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
Tunnel Vision
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