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David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 15
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
*updated

Prediction: IND 23, JAC 17

To play, or not to play. That is the question: Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous demands of fantasy footballers or take arms against a sea of injuries.

Ah - they'll play. Or so HC Jim Caldwell says. This is a short week against a divisional rival and it is business as usual this week. It is, of course, a big risk to rely on but that is what was said. The Colts won 14-12 over the Jaguars in the season opener.

Indianapolis Colts (13-0)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 JAC 14-12 -6.5 44.5
2 @MIA 27-23 -3 42
3 @ARI 31-10 +2.5 48
4 SEA 34-17 -10 43.5
5 @TEN 31-9 -3.5 46.5
6 BYE - - -
7 @STL 42-6 -14 45
8 SF 18-14 -13 45
9 HOU 20-17 -9 48
10 NE 35-34 -1 48
11 @BAL 17-15 -1 44
12 @HOU 35-27 -3 48
13 TEN 27-17 -6 47
14 DEN 28-16 -6.5 43.5
15 @JAC - -3 42
16 NYJ - - -
17 @BUF - - -
IND at JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning     250,2
RB Joseph Addai 50 30,1  
TE Dallas Clark   40  
WR Reggie Wayne   70,1  
WR Austin Collie   40  
WR Pierre Garcon   50  
PK Matt Stover 3 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The starters are slated to play this week like usual and all the principal players had a full workout on Tuesday in preparation. Should the Colts tank the game it would mean that when they have their first game in January, it would have been five weeks since their last meaningful, full-effort game.

That seems rather excessive and not a great idea. But dealing with only this week, I would take the Colts at their word that the starters will play and week 15 is going to be like last week. And cross all my fingers and toes and wear a lucky hat.

Quarterback: Peyton Manning practiced in full on Tuesday and apparently will start and play against the Jaguars. He passed for 301 yards and a score in the season opener against these Jags and now heads to Florida where the Jaguars have allowed a score to every visiting quarterback. Manning's 301 yards was a season high though and no one has thrown for more than 300 in Jacksonville though a few came close.

I would rely on Manning passing for low to mid-200's and a couple of scores that could easily become three if Manning wanted. The matchup in Jacksonville is usually the higher scoring one between these two teams but that could fall to the wayside this week.

Running Backs: Donald Brown is still out with a chest injury with no timetable for his return. That leaves Joseph Addai and Mike Hart as the runners this week but Addai should shoulder most of the load at least for the is Thursday. The following week against the Jets is a different situation but Addai had 77 yards and a score in the first meeting with the Jags and that was with Brown taking 11 carries for 33 yards.

The Jaguars are tougher against the run than the pass and especially at home. Hard to expect a touchdown here with only three runners managing to score in Jacksonville so far but Addai should manage at least decent total yardage. His role as a receiver should prop up his numbers and Hart does not figure into the passing game so far. I actually like Addai to catch a score in this game as he has three times this year.

Wide Receivers: Reggie Wayne is nursing a foot sprain but has practiced in full and should play this week without apparent limitation or fear of being pulled. After scoring nine times, he has been held to just four catches for around 40 yards and no score for two weeks now thanks to Corltland Finnegan and Dry Bly shadowing him. This week is important for Wayne to play because it all but certain that he will be shut down by the Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis next week if Wayne even plays. Wayne started the year with ten receptions for 162 yards and a score against these Jaguars. Austin Collie has scored in each of the last two games and has five touchdowns on the year. He'll get even more time down the stretch if and when Wayne and Pierre Garcon take any time off.

Sure it is a risk but I like Wayne to have a nice showing here if only for the last time of the regular season. He has already had his way with this secondary and if he doesn't play much or well here, it will be more like six weeks of little action for him when the playoffs roll around.

Tight Ends: Dallas Clark comes off a three touchdown effort against the Broncos and has scored in five of the previous six road games. Expect a decent showing here by Clark with a shot at a score if Addai is not the one to catch it. Clark started the year with four catches for 39 yards against the Jaguars.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 4 13 4 1 12 12
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 10 30 6 19 21


Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6)
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @IND 12-14 +6.5 44.5
2 ARI 17-31 -3 43
3 @HOU 31-24 +4 46.5
4 TEN 37-17 +3 41.5
5 @SEA 0-41 -3 40
6 STL 23-20 -9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 @TEN 13-30 +3 44
9 KC 24-21 -6.5 42
10 @NYJ 24-22 +6.5 41
11 BUF 18-15 -9 41
12 @SF 3-20 +3 42.5
13 HOU 23-18 -1 47.5
14 MIA 10-14 -3 43
15 IND - +3 42
16 @NE - - -
17 @CLE - - -
JAX vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB David Garrard 10   170,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 90,1 20  
TE Marcedes Lewis   40  
WR Torry Holt   50  
WR Mike Sims-Walker   30  
WR Mike Thomas   20,1  
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: At 7-6 the Jaguars are in the think of the race for a wildcard but this week is a problem and then a trip to New England is likely not going to be kind either. The final week in Cleveland should be a win but short of pulling an upset, the Jaguars may end up 8-8 and out of the running. The Jaguars may be the final team to get a full dose of the Colts for the regular season.

Quarterback: David Garrard has been very inconsistent this year though in part he had many games where the rushing attack took over and he did not need to do much to win games. He has only scored in six games so far and only has five passing touchdowns in the last nine weeks.

Garrard passed for a season low 122 yards and no scores in the season opener against the Colts. He'll likely catch a break with the Colts almost certainly resting some injured defensive linemen but that doesn't change the fact that this team does not pass well and it does not have the personnel to outmatch the Colts secondary. Figure on moderate yardage and one score at most if the Colts truly play this one with full effort.

Running Backs: Maurice-Jones Drew practiced in full on Tuesday and has a sore knee that is not expected to by any issue. He scored last week for the first time since week 11 and has gone four games now with never more than 75 rushing yards prompting the speculation that he is wearing down. These last two weeks at home against the Dolphins and Texans only saw him turn in around 3.2 yards per carry in both games.

Jones-Drew rushed for 97 yards on 21 carries and scored once in the first meeting with the Colts. He added five receptions for 26 yards in that game. The Colts on the road are only about average against the run but combine that with a slowing down Jones-Drew and he'll likely remain below the 100 rushing yard mark and have a good chance for one touchdown.

Wide Receivers: After a week of never practicing, Mike Sims-Walker was listed as doubtful to play but then he suited up and went all four quarters. The NFL is looking into situation since doubtful players by their definition are rarely full game starters. Sims-Walker only had one catch for six yards despite being thrown six passes, so it was not as if he was any help to the cause.

But everyone knows he holds the key to the passing game since he accounts for six of the seven passing scores thrown this year to the position. Torry Holt remains mildly productive in yardage but has no touchdowns in any game this year. In the season opener, Sims-Walker was held without a catch and Holt turned in three receptions for 37 yards.

The passing yardage is likely to be below the fantasy radar here but a score is most likely to end up with this position. Could bo anywhere given that Sims-Walker is banged up and will be covered up so I am awarding it to Mike Thomas more to put it somewhere than a show of confidence.

Tight Ends: Marcedes Lewis has been very productive in yardage in recent weeks but still has not scored since week two and the Colts rank the best against the position.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 17 14 16 20 27 32
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 8 17 28 1 23 1

The Huddle
WEEK 15
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
Other Features
Fantasy Statistics
Early Injury Report
Free Agent Forecast
Commentary From the Edge
Game Recaps
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