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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 15
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
*updated

Prediction: MIA 14, TEN 20

Friday Night Update: Vince Young had a full practice on Friday and is expected to play.

Thursday Night Update: Vince Young was held out of practice on Wednesday but returned for limited work on Thursday and is looking likely to play this week.

The Dolphins have won their last two games and remain one game behind the Patriots in the AFC East. The Fins only have a 3-4 road record. The Titans got back on their winning ways last week and 6-7 know that the playoffs are an unrealistic goal but they are defying the odds on what a team that goes 0-6 can do. The Titans are 4-2 at home.

Miami Dolphins (7-6)
Homefield: Dolphins Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @ATL 7-19 +4 43.5
2 IND 23-27 +3 42
3 @SD 13-23 +6 42
4 BUF 38-10 +2.5 37
5 NYJ 31-27 +1.5 36.5
6 BYE - - -
7 NO 34-46 +6 48
8 @NYJ 30-25 +3.5 40
9 @NE 17-27 +10.5 47
10 TB 25-23 -10 43
11 @CAR 24-17 +3 43.5
12 @BUF 14-31 -3.5 38
13 NE 22-21 +4.5 46
14 @JAC 14-10 3 43
15 @TEN - +3 41.5
16 HOU - - -
17 PIT - - -
MIA at TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne     190,1
RB Ricky Williams 80,1    
TE Anthony Fasano   30,1  
WR Brian Hartline   30  
WR Greg Camarillo   60  
WR Davone Bess   50  
PK Dan Carpenter   2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The problem for the Fins is that since Ronnie Brown left, the offense has taken a visible step down and struggled to score more than around 20 points or so per week. That places more pressure on the defense but even if the Fins lose this week, the two remaining games are both at home and face the Texans and suddenly very mortal Steelers. A 9-7 record may be good enough to get that wildcard.

Quarterback: Chad Henne has been mostly a game manager this year which is what the offense calls for but the loss of Ronnie Brown really changed the dynamics and being able to throw better would come in very handy particularly in road games and against non-divisional opponents. Henne has never thrown for more than one score away from Miami or had over 220 passing yards.

The Titans started out the season as a horrible secondary but have vastly improved since their week seven bye. The last four visitors to Tennessee have only passed for a total of two touchdowns and non have thrown for more than 220 yards. That is right down the wheel house for the Dolphins so expect a game hovering around 200 yards and with no more than one passing score if even that much.

Running Backs: The offense remains all about Ricky Williams who has scored in three of the four games without Brown and has received almost no relief since Lex Hilliard only takes no more than five carries per week. Williams has topped 100 rushing yards in each of the last three road games against the Panthers, Bills and Jaguars. He remains the offense.

That could be a problem this week since the Titans have only allow3ed four scores to visiting running backs this year and only one has gained more than 55 rushing yards. I am going to credit Williams with a rushing score but the confidence on that is not that high.

Wide Receivers: The Dolphins have recently seen both Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess show up with 100 yard games but the bulk of work says they are not there yet and that there is a reason why the duo combines for only one touchdown this year. Brian Hartline has three but almost never has more than 35 yards in a game.

The Titans ar weak against the wideouts but less so in recent weeks and even less when at home. The Fins are one of the worst passing teams anyway so expect only moderate yardage here.

Tight Ends: The Dolphins rarely use their tight ends beside Anthony Fasano but even he was blanked last week and has only one touchdown on the season. But the Titans are currently the worst team at stopping tight ends/ Joey Haynos has two scores but almost never more than one catch if that much. Kory Sperry has scored once as well. I am crediting Fasano with the score but it could end up with Haynos.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 27 4 21 27 15 10
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 30 19 32 23 21 5


Tennessee Titans (6-7)
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @PIT 10-13 +5 37
2 HOU 31-34 -7 40.5
3 @NYJ 17-24 +2.5 37
4 @JAC 17-37 -3 41.5
5 IND 9-31 +3.5 46.5
6 @NE 0-59 +9.5 43
7 BYE - - -
8 JAC 30-13 -3 44
9 @SF 34-27 +4 41
10 BUF 41-17 -9 41
11 @HOU 20-17 +4 48.5-
12 ARI 20-17 -3.5 44.5
13 @IND 17-27 +6 47
14 STL 47-7 -13.5 40
15 MIA - -3 41.5
16 SD - - -
17 @SEA - - -
TEN vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Vince Young     230,1
RB Chris Johnson 110,1 40  
TE Bo Scaife   40  
WR Justin Gage   10  
WR Nate Washington   50  
WR Kenny Britt   70,1  
PK Rob Bironas 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: The Titans may miss the playoffs but have been nothing short of remarkable since switching to Vince Young. No visitors have scored more than 17 points and the Titans are rolling up wins while watching what could end up as one of the best seasons by a running back every. The Dolphins are going to be a tough win as will the Chargers who will want to maintain their #2 seed but these Titans are already geared up for next year when the schedule won't be a hindrance and the team doesn't need to start slowly.

Quarterback: Vince Young pulled his right hamstring last week but an MRI showed that nothing was torn and he may be back this week. He is likely to be a game time decision but I will project for him to play and see how it looks on Thursday and Friday. Young himself said he could have returned last week if it was a playoff game instead of just another 47-7 humiliation of the Rams.

Young has still scored at least once in each start but his rushing yardage may be light this week if his hamstring is an issue. The Dolphins have been very soft against the pass but more from yardage than scores allowed. That favors both Young and Kerry Collins if he plays. The Fins have also give up five scores to the rushing of a quarterback.

Running Backs: Chris Johnson has rushed for over 100 yards in eight consecutive games which passes Earl Campbell for the franchise record and has topped 200 total yards from scrimmage in only 13 games which has only been done four other times in NFL history. Johnson is on a pace to hit right at the magic 2000 yard mark as a rusher and has two home games and a trip to Seattle to get it done.

This is more the Super Bowl for the Titans. He has scored 13 times this year and that includes in all but one home game.

The Dolphins rank well against the run but have allowed two runners to exceed 100 rushing yards (DeAngelo Williams and Thomas Jones) and both were in a road game such as this. The Dolphins won't make it easy but with Johnson, it is mostly about waiting for the 50 yard burst down the sideline.

Wide Receivers:Justin Gage returned from his bad back last week but never had a catch and has realistically forever lost his job to the rookie Kenny Britt. Nate Washington continues to toss in 40 or 50 yards in most games and he has five touchdown that happened before Britt caught fire in week 11 and scored three times in the last four games. The Dolphins secondary is only average and almost all the players scoring on them are the #1 wideouts for their team. Look for a decent showing here by Britt that could turn into a big game should the Titans ever need to throw more than expected.

Tight Ends: Bo Scaife remains the primary receiving tight end with around 40 or 50 yards in most recent games but he only has one touchdown on the season and last week Alge Crumpler got his first score. Scaife has moderate yardage each week but almost nothing more.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 21 5 27 16 9 11
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 28 9 14 18 27 18

The Huddle
WEEK 15
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Thursday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Saturday
Monday
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