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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
WEEK 16
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Friday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
*Updated

Prediction: KC 13, CIN 24

The Chiefs continue to tumble with a four game losing streak and a 2-4 road record. The Bengals have lost their last two and now are just one game ahead of the Ravens though own the head-to-head tie breaker with them. The Bengals are 5-2 in home games this year.

The Bengals won 16-6 when the Chiefs visited for the season finale' last year.

Kansas City Chiefs (3-11)
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @BAL 24-38 +12.5 36
2 OAK 10-13 -4 41
3 @PHI
14-34
+9.5 42.5
4 NYG 16-27 +9 42.5
5 DAL 20-26 +9 42.5
6 @WAS 14-6 +6 37
7 SD 7-37 +5.5 44
8 BYE - - -
9 @JAC 21-24 +6.5 42
10 @OAK 16-10 +1 48
11 PIT 27-24 +10.5 39.5
12 @SD 14-43 +13 44.5
13 DEN 13-44 +6 39
14 BUF 10-16 +1 38
15 CLE 34-41 -1 39
16 @CIN - +14 40
17 @DEN - - -
KC at CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Cassel     190,1
RB Jamaal Charles 60 20  
TE Leonard Pope   10  
WR Dwayne Bowe   60,1  
WR Chris Chambers   50  
WR Mark Bradley   20  
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP  
Pregame Notes: The Chiefs lost probably their lone remaining chance for a win when the Browns had two return scores by Josh Cribbs. Now ending the season with road games against good defenses, the results will be predictable for a team that has struggled to score more than 14 points in most weeks. Dwayne Bowe is back in the lineup and at least gets a couple more games with Cassel.

Quarterback: Matt Cassel comes off his best game of the year when he passed for 331 yards and two scores against the visiting Browns but he had not scored in the two previous matchups. He has struggled in most road games and only passed for five touchdowns over the five away venues.

The Bengals secondary has held visitors to no more than one passing score in all but one game and the last three visitors failed to reach 200 passing yards as well. Add in the Bengals need this win in their final home game of the regular season and Cassel loses all appeal this week.

Running Backs: HC Todd Haley is crowing about Jamaal Charles who racked up major stats in these last two weeks thanks to facing the terrible rush defenses of the Bills and Browns as visitors. He has scored in each of the last six games though and become the main weapon that the Chiefs use. Charles has been successful in road games as well with 93 yards on 14 carries and a score recently in San Diego. He is not merely a factor in home games against weak teams - though it certainly helps.

Charles faces his toughest test this week though since the Bengals have only allowed two rushing scores to runners in Cincinnati and none have topped 93 rushing yards there. But Charles will fill in as a receiver as well so expect a decent showing.

Wide Receivers: Dwayne Bowe returned last week from his four game suspension but dropped three passes including a probable touchdown. He ended with four catches for 56 yards but was thrown a team high ten passes. Chris Chambers had his best showing of the season when he caught all five passes for 114 yards and a touchdown against the Browns. That ties him with Bowe with four scores for the lead among receivers.

Mark Bradley also scored last week with a season best 52 yards on three catches. It was as good as it gets last week. Not so for this game facing a secondary that has only allowed four scores thrown to visiting wideouts. Several players have turned in very good yardage in Cincy but scoring has been low.

Look for one passing touchdown that could go anywhere but I like Bowe the most. They were constantly targeting him last week.

Tight Ends: No fantasy value. Leonard Pope accounts for ten or twenty yards per game but has just one touchdown on the season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 24 29 17 28 21 28
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 12 9 5 16 8 8


Cincinnati Bengals (9-5)
Homefield: Paul Brown Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 DEN 7-12 -5 42.5
2 @GB 31-24 +9 42
3 PIT 23-20 +4.5 37
4 @CLE 23-20 -5.5 38
5 @BAL 17-14 +8.5 42
6 HOU 17-28 -5.5 46
7 CHI 45-10 -1 42.5
8 BYE - - -
9 BAL 17-7 +3 43.5
10 @PIT 18-12 +6.5 41
11 @OAK 17-20 -9 36
12 CLE 16-7 -12 39.5
13 DET 23-13 +13.5 42
14 @MIN 10-30 +6 42.5
15 @SD 24-27 +6.5 44
16 KC - -14 40
17 @NYJ - - -
CIN vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer     230,2
RB Cedric Benson 120,1 10  
WR Chad Ochocinco   100,1  
WR Laveranues Coles   50,1  
WR Andre Caldwell   40  
PK Shayne Graham 1 FG 3 XP  

Pregame Notes: Losing the last two games makes the stretch run a bit closer than desired but a win here secures the division and fortunately makes the final game a nonfactor. But that only serves to point out the bigger problem with the Bengals - just a 4-3 record on the road and 1-3 outside their own division. That will come into play in the postseason.

Quarterback: Carson Palmer served up his best game in seven weeks when he passed for 314 yards and two scores last week in San Diego. He had been stuck at no more than one touchdown per game over the previous sis weeks and now returns home where he has topped one passing score only once this year.

The Chiefs have allowed eight opponent to throw for at least two scores and more often three touchdowns. Look for a strong effort here by Palmer with solid yardage and likely two scores. The Chiefs are just surrendering as many in too many games not to expect the Bengals to follow suit.

Running Backs: Cedric Benson was held in check last week but has topped 100 yards in his last three homes games. He has not scored since week nine though and has been locked at six touchdowns since then. Larry Johnson has assumed the backup duty but the team remains firmly behind Benson as the heavy-use runner.

Benson faces one of the worst rush defenses in the league. The Chiefs have allowed eight rushing scores in their six road venues and almost all opponents end up with a runner around 100 rushing yards. Expect Benson to have a nice week here and help a few fantasy teams make it over the top in their league championships. This is the same defense that Jerome Harrison just shredded for 286 yards.

Wide Receivers: Chad OchoCinco got his touchdown last week and turned in a team high 79 yards on three catches in San Diego. That makes three straight weeks for OchoCinco and gives him eight touchdowns on the year. Laveranues Coles scored in San Diego as well but has been quiet in the five previous weeks. Andre Caldwell is just a standard slot guy who has not scored in in the last seven weeks.

The Chiefs have been generally good against wide receivers but mostly because their opponents would normally run their way to a win. This should see at least one score for Ochocinco along with decent yardage. I like one other passing score but it could go anywhere. I will credit Coles as the most likely but there is little confidence in it.

Tight Ends: J. P. Foschi was a major surprise when he caught seven passes for 82 yards in San Diego. His previous best was only three catches for 14 yards. Consider last week as a freak event.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 17 23 12 29 17 8
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 21 29 11 18 31 25

The Huddle
WEEK 16
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Friday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday Late
Sunday
Monday
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