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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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The Huddle
~ 2009 ~
Season Ticket
Sunday Late

Prediction: NYJ 17 , IND 20

Update: Pierre Garcon has been ruled out this week because of an injured hand and likely won't play again until the playoffs. Donald Brown has been able to practice fully for two days and is listed as probable thought the Colts say he is a game time decision. This takes an already very "iffy" situation with Joseph Addai and makes it highly risky to rely on him. Adam Vinatieri may also return but it could end up as a game time decision. All Colts are going to be a risk to rely on.

The Jets loss last week puts them at a game disadvantage to the Ravens and Broncos for a wild card and now they hit the road where they have only been 4-3. The Colts remain perfect and now have locked up homefield through out and have nothing to play for other than to be healthy and, if they want, to go for an undefeated season which is entirely probable considering they host the Jets this week and then end up in Buffalo. That is the real question at hand - with the Colts rest any players in this game? Facing the Jets defense would be challenge enough without the specter of resting players.

New York Jets (7-7)
Homefield: Giants Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 @HOU 24-7 +4.5 44
2 NE 16-9 +6 46
3 TEN 24-17 -2.5 37
4 @NO 10-24 +6.5 46
5 @MIA 27-31 -1.5 36.5
6 BUF 13-16 --9.5 37
7 @OAK 38-0 -6 34
8 MIA 25-30 -3.5 40
9 BYE - - -
10 JAC 22-24 -7 41
11 @NE 14-31 +10.5 45
12 CAR 17-6 -3.5 41
13 @BUF 19-13 -3.5 39
14 @TB 26-3 -3.5 36.5
15 ATL 7-10 -5.5 36.5
16 @IND - +5.5 40.5
17 CIN - - -
NYJ at IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Mark Sanchez     190,1
RB Thomas Jones 80,1    
TE Dustin Keller   20  
WR Jerricho Cotchery   80  
WR Braylon Edwards   70,1  
PK Jay Feely 1 FG 2 XP  
Pregame Notes: The home loss to the Falcons was a surprise but mostly because the offense could only score one touchdown last week. When a game comes down to purely whether or not Thomas Jones can outscore an opponent, the Jets are going to do well enough to avoid a losing season. Wrapping up against the Bengals won't make that easy though they may be resting players next week.

Quarterback: Mark Sanchez returned after missing the Bills game and plugged in his standard one touchdown and 226 passing yards. Sanchez is currently wrapping up his rookie season with 12 touchdowns against 20 interceptions and he has not had more than 177 yards in a road game since week one.

The Colts secondary has been far worse recently than the season began and allowed the last four opponents to pass for multiple touchdowns but the Jets have never had more than one in any road game. Expect mediocre numbers again this week.

Running Backs: Surprisingly, Thomas Jones was held to only 52 rushing yards on 19 carries when the Falcons visited but he had been turning in at least 75 yards in each of the previous eight games and scored 11 times already this year. Jones has gained over 98 rushing yards in each of the last four away games. Shonn Greene still has not scored since week seven and chugs along with around 40 rushing yards in each game.

The Colts have been solid against the run at home and only four runners have scored there. Only Chris Johnson managed to run for over 100 yards in Indy. Expect a solid effort here by Jones and the chance for one rushing score. This all depends too on who sits and who plays and the effect on the scoreboard for the Colts.

Wide Receivers: Braylon Edwards comes off his best game as Jet with 105 yards on five catches and a score against the visiting Falcons. He had been banging around 50 yards or less for the four previous games though and had been no more than a marginal fantasy performer until last week. Jerricho Cotchery is also seeing a downturn in recent weeks though he has been more consistent than Edwards. Cotchery has not scored since week 11 and had more than 50 yards just once in the last month.

The Colts secondary has been very weak in recent games and allowed some monster efforts by the elite wideouts. But the Jets are not going to become a pass-heavy team and do not have the personnel if they wanted to anyway. I like one score here that should favor Edwards and decent yardage for both.

Tight Ends: Dustin Keller has really fallen from favor in recent weeks as well and only had five catches for 41 yards from the last three weeks combined. He only had two scores on the year and the Colts are #1 against the position. Forget about Keller this week.

Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 28 16 23 27 10 26
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 8 18 28 1 22 1

Indianapolis Colts (14-0)
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
  Opp Score Spread Over/Under
1 JAC 14-12 -6.5 44.5
2 @MIA 27-23 -3 42
3 @ARI 31-10 +2.5 48
4 SEA 34-17 -10 43.5
5 @TEN 31-9 -3.5 46.5
6 BYE - - -
7 @STL 42-6 -14 45
8 SF 18-14 -13 45
9 HOU 20-17 -9 48
10 NE 35-34 -1 48
11 @BAL 17-15 -1 44
12 @HOU 35-27 -3 48
13 TEN 27-17 -6 47
14 DEN 28-16 -6.5 43.5
15 @JAC 35-31 -3 42
16 NYJ - -5.5 40.5
17 @BUF - - -
IND vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning     200,1
RB Joseph Addai 60,1 10  
TE Dallas Clark   50,1  
WR Reggie Wayne   40  
WR Austin Collie   50  
WR Pierre Garcon 70
PK Matt Stover 2 FG 2 XP  

Pregame Notes: Two games away from a perfect regular season and it is there if the Colts want it. The team is already getting healthier with Donald Brown and Anthony Gonzalez returning to practice and it would allow the Colts to remove the Patriots from the record books if they can reach the superbowl and win it undefeated. What could end up happening is that the regulars play only so long as needed to get the win. Against the Jets and Bills that will probably not be a full game.

Quarterback: Peyton Manning is ending up his season on a high note with four touchdowns in each of the last two games. That boosts his totals to 33 scores on the year and he already has passed for 4213 yards with two games left to play. He has nine games over 300 yards and 15 interceptions on the season. More importantly, he only has been sacked ten times and not once in the past three games.

The Jets secondary ranks #1 against the position and has only allowed eight passing scores all year long. Only once has any quarterback thrown for two scores and no one has more than two. Seven opponents had no passing touchdowns against them. Look for a much lower game from Manning this week. Drew Brees only passed for 190 yards and no scores on them. Tom Brady had just one touchdown between the two times he faced the Jets. Add in the chance Manning may sit and this is the worst week to start Manning all year.

Running Backs: Donald Brown has returned to practice but he still is not certain to play this week. Brown would be a good replacement if the Colts want to rest Joseph Addai but that may not happen until next week. Addai has been taking nearly every carry in games and has been hovering around 70 rushing yards per game for the last month with minor work as a receiver. Addai has nine rushing scores so far with three more as a receiver.

The Jets have been one of the best rush defenses this year and only given up eight rushing touchdowns and just one player has exceeded 100 rush yards on them. Look for just a moderate game from Addai with a chance of a score. There is also risk that they may want to get Addai some rest if they feel comfortable in the game.

Wide Receivers: Anthony Gonzalez returns to practice this week and may see some playing time. He's lost his spot to Pierre Garcon regardless but would add another receiver into the mix. The big concern this week is that Reggie Wayne will draw Darrelle Revis and get shut down as have the best receiver from every opponent of the Jets. Expect a poor game from Wayne who has nothing he or Manning needs to prove. That should open up the door a bit for Garcon and Austin Collie but the Jets have only allowed five scores to wideouts this season.

None of the wideouts here have a good matchup but Garcon could manage decent yardage. Hard not to start Wayne but Revis has shut down everyone and Wayne may end up having a restful game just being a decoy.

Tight Ends: Dallas Clark has been on fire lately with five touchdowns over just the last two games. His yardage spikes and drops nearly week to week but he has been solid with the scoring for the last five weeks. The Jets rank highly against the position but have not yet faced a decent tight end let alone perhaps the premier pass catching tight end in the league.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 3 14 4 1 14 12
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 1 6 1 2 4 27

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